The Big 12 will vote to expand by 4 members later this week. It is a defensive move to get the ball rolling sooner than later because it is becoming increasingly clear that Texas and Oklahoma will be leaving sooner than expected to join the SEC.
You will likely hear the exact opposite this week that the Big 12 intends for Texas and OU to stay until the end of their TV contract. Here's the rest of the story you won't hear from the Big 12 right now.
ESPN has the TV rights to all 4 teams the Big 12 will be adding - BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston. This is not a coincidence. ESPN is not passively waiting for this to happen. They are dictating it.
As a negotiating move, ESPN has told the Big 12 it will cut its TV payout to the Big 12 by more than half, more than the combined exit fees, and more than the Big 12 will get trying to keep Texas and OU's media rights. ESPN and the SEC are prepared for Texas and OU to temporarily get zero media rights shares in the SEC for now to get what they want. That will likely not be necessary but the threat is real to make life miserable for the Big 12 if it doesn't play ball. Remember ESPN already very smartly factored in the SEC rights increase into its new CBS replacement deal before Texas and OU were announced to be moving to the SEC. This was planned in advance to partially compensate the SEC for the Texas and OU future additions.
Also, ESPN has the 4 new teams locked up within their own deals with ESPN. And guess what they require, exit fees paid back to the AAC (and indirectly ESPN in BYU's case). So ESPN has the Big 12 checkmated at every level, and any way you slice it, the math shows the Big 12 payouts will be going down substantially unless the Big 12 does what ESPN wants and releases Texas and OU next year.
ESPN is playing hardball and this will end up getting Texas and OU released from their GOR sooner than later. One GOR down, one ACC GOR to go.
“TV has made it obvious they’re only paying for the big brands moving forward."
8 million viewers on Sunday was a preview of what ESPN wants for FSU several times a year in the biggest matchups. Be ready FSU. A time for choosing is coming.