Covid 19 Testing Numbers

[FSUDoles]

All,

We have only tested .5% of the US population for Covid 19, does this seem light? 1.8 Million tests conducted through yesterday (excluding hospitals) for 332 Million US citizens...99.5% of the US remains untested? I know testing is getting better and faster but...wow...

*Thanks Q....math updated

 

[Spearhead04]

Seems like the testing doesn’t matter. If you test negative today you could still contract it tomorrow. Also, this came from worldometers today,
“An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]

A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51%
chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway"

 

[QuaZ2002]

All,

We have only tested .005% of the US population for Covid 19, does this seem light? 1.8 Million tests conducted through yesterday (excluding hospitals) for 330 Million US citizens...99.995% of the US remains untested? I know testing is getting better and faster but...wow...

It’s not .005% it’s 0.5%. 1.8M/331M. It’s not a lot but no idea how that compares to other countries.

 

[QuaZ2002]

Seems like the testing doesn’t matter. If you test negative today you could still contract it tomorrow. Also, this came from worldometers today,
“An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]

A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51%
chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway"

You know why I don’t buy that. Only like 11% of people tested end up positive. So presumably everyone who gets tested is showing symptoms, and only roughly 1/10 of those is actually COVID. It’s hard to believe then that there are 10x that many people out there who have it who aren’t even getting tested.

If the majority of people tested were positive I’d believe it but not with so many false tests.

 

[FSUDoles]

Seems like the testing doesn’t matter. If you test negative today you could still contract it tomorrow. Also, this came from worldometers today,
“An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]

A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51%
chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway"

Well...I only mention it because I hear daily what a great job we (The US) are doing testing compared to the rest of the 181 other impacted countries. If it’s not important, does it even merit a mention? I think for at least sample size/spread impact, the experts, i.e. our Surgeon General, Doctor Fauci and Birx consistently tout the importance of social distance and testing. I do recognize serology/antibody testing will get this country going again...we need to know who has had it...and can get on with their lives. I totally understand the “oh, I tested negative” and they get the virus on their next Publix run. Current testing today is certainly important for first responders, nurses and doctors....it has value.

 

[FSUDoles]

It’s not .005% it’s 0.5%. 1.8M/331M. It’s not a lot but no idea how that compares to other countries.

Are you sure? 1.8 Million divided by 33 Million would be .5% or 5% of the Population. I think it’s .05%...1,800,000/330,000,000....I think we may both be off....but I’m not great at math.

 

[QuaZ2002]

1.8/331= .005, that’s 0.5%

 

[FSUDoles]

1.8/331= .005, that’s 0.5%

Like I said, my math skills suck. I’m blaming retirement at 56 : ). 330 Million untested still seems like a bunch though, I guess that was my overarching point.

 

[Deerfuel2]

You know why I don’t buy that. Only like 11% of people tested end up positive. So presumably everyone who gets tested is showing symptoms, and only roughly 1/10 of those is actually COVID. It’s hard to believe then that there are 10x that many people out there who have it who aren’t even getting tested.

If the majority of people tested were positive I’d believe it but not with so many false tests.

Look at the Florida Covid website. It gives the number tested and the number that are positive. It has hovered between 9 and 11% for the last 3 weeks. That website also shows a substantial drop in new cases over the last 3 days. Was the peak 3 days ago? It seems like an encouraging statistic

 

[FreeNole]

At this point I am more interested in how many people have built the antibodies. It is possible 10’s of millions are no longer susceptible.

 

[Deerfuel2]

At this point I am more interested in how many people have built the antibodies. It is possible 10’s of millions are no longer susceptible.

If I knew it wouldn't kill me, I am ready for some immunity.

 

[mjpwooo]

I think this went through Tampa already in January. There were a bunch of kids who were sick with the 'flu' all at once.

JMO, and honestly, I hope I am right.....

 

[PopsNole]

I think this shit went through Tampa already in January. There were a bunch of kids who were sick with the 'flu' all at once.

JMO, and honestly, I hope I am right.....

True. Friend from Sarasota and his wife were sick as hell for about a week in January. I had a bad cold for weeks back then as well. It was "flu" to everyone though.

 

[MagNoleA]

24% of all counties in the country have never even had a case.

 

[PopsNole]

24% of all counties in the country have never even had a case.

So 76% do have cases.

Also a lot of poor rural counties barely have any testing to begin with and being able to get one is extremely difficult.

 

[goldmom]

I think this went through Tampa already in January. There were a bunch of kids who were sick with the 'flu' all at once.

JMO, and honestly, I hope I am right.....

My daughter had several of the symptoms in late January and she had the flu shot...it was not the flu, but something else.

 

[goldmom]

So 76% do have cases.

Also a lot of poor rural counties barely have any testing to begin with and being able to get one is extremely difficult.

Here in Jax they've had to shut down a major testing site because of rainy weather. Apparently the bureaucrats can't figure out how to move things under a shelter as a temporary alternative.

 

[MagNoleA]

My daughter had several of the symptoms in late January and she had the flu shot...it was not the flu, but something else.

Could have been a cootie attack gone wild!

 

[MagNoleA]

Here in Jax they've had to shut down a major testing site because of rainy weather. Apparently the bureaucrats can't figure out how to move things under a shelter as a temporary alternative.

Very interesting unfolding situation there. Please keep us posted.

 

[LauderdaleNole]

My daughter had several of the symptoms in late January and she had the flu shot...it was not the flu, but something else.

Yep I have several colleagues that traveled to Asia in December.
Both came back with with a horrible upper respiratory infection that lingered for 3 weeks. They are certain it was Covid 19.
I bet she would test positive for the antibodies.

 

[FSUDoles]

Yep I have several colleagues that traveled to Asia in December.
Both came back with with a horrible upper respiratory infection that lingered for 3 weeks. They are certain it was Covid 19.
I bet she would test positive for the antibodies.

We were on a Celebrity Cruise to the Eastern Caribbean out of Fort Lauderdale back in early to mid January...We had the crud on and off for several weeks after that trip before I even thought we were at risk. I wouldn’t bet $100 if I had this or not, I think it’s 50/50. Maybe someday we will know...

 

[goldmom]

Could have been a cootie attack gone wild!

No one in my family has ever attracted a single cootie. Crazies? Yes. Cooties? No.

 

[F4Gary]

No one in my family has ever attracted a single cootie. Crazies? Yes. Cooties? No.

As evidenced on here...

 

[MagNoleA]

No one in my family has ever attracted a single cootie. Crazies? Yes. Cooties? No.

Does your family tree reflect in your fearless predictions?
Are you a third cousin to Jimmy the Greek?

 

[FreeNole]

Pilot antibody testing in Santa Clara California, show that actual people who have had COVID19 could be 85 times tho actual reported cases. This would mean two things, 1) the death rate is extremely small and 2) herd vaccination is much closer than originally thought.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/coro...fections-85-times-higher-reported-researchers

 

[FreeNole]

Herd vaccination is thought to happen when something like 60% of the population is immune. With 330 million in the US population that would mean we would need about 190 million people to be exposed. If the study is representative of the actual exposure rate we would have about 56 million people with the antibodies. Or something like 28% of the way there. As more of the herd has the antibodies, the rate of infection goes down, because you need an infected person to come in contact with a susceptible person.

 

[NOLEPCOLA]

Herd vaccination is thought to happen when something like 60% of the population is immune. With 330 million in the US population that would mean we would need about 190 million people to be exposed. If the study is representative of the actual exposure rate we would have about 56 million people with the antibodies. Or something like 28% of the way there. As more of the herd has the antibodies, the rate of infection goes down, because you need an infected person to come in contact with a susceptible person.

And why quarantining much of the healthy, less likely to be significantly affected population is no way to built herd immunity.
https://www.conservativereview.com/...-outbreaks-china-family-indoors-mass-transit/

 

[MIKE_G]

Well, in South Korea people who have recovered from the virus are testing positive again. So there's no guarantee yet that exposure and antibodies are creating immunity.

 

[QuaZ2002]

Herd vaccination is thought to happen when something like 60% of the population is immune. With 330 million in the US population that would mean we would need about 190 million people to be exposed. If the study is representative of the actual exposure rate we would have about 56 million people with the antibodies. Or something like 28% of the way there. As more of the herd has the antibodies, the rate of infection goes down, because you need an infected person to come in contact with a susceptible person.

That study said 2.5-4% of all tested had antibodies so that’s still way off from herd immunity. I really don’t think we’ll get to herd immunity with this unless we are ok with prob 1M dead.

 

[89nole]

Look at the Florida Covid website. It gives the number tested and the number that are positive. It has hovered between 9 and 11% for the last 3 weeks. That website also shows a substantial drop in new cases over the last 3 days. Was the peak 3 days ago? It seems like an encouraging statistic

They have a big backlog of tests. So as they are completed you could see some more spikes.

 

[AllNoles]

Seems like the testing doesn’t matter. If you test negative today you could still contract it tomorrow. Also, this came from worldometers today,
“An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]

A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51%
chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway"

That’s BS. They don’t have a few more tests? These folks are deceased. Take blood. Swans. Whatever you need for the test when you have it. Or leave them in the chiller til a test is there. If you’re gonna assign this as cause to a death, you damn well better at least get a test done.