NFL draft: 1st and 4th pick

[NDallasRuss]

If you have the first and the fourth picks, and you need both a RB and a QB, it seems pretty simple to me: there's a clear #1 RB in the draft, but there are three guys who could be the #1 QB.

Unless you're especially sold on one of the QBs (like your evaluations of them are worlds apart), don't you take the RB #1 and a QB at #4?

If you take the QB first, a) you might take the wrong one anyway, and b) you won't get the RB at #4. But if you take the RB first, you're still getting one of the top 3 QBs at #4, and he might be the best of the three, since no one knows anyway.

I recognize that I'm not a GM, but why wouldn't this be the logical strategy? That said, I'm positive the Browns screw this up.

 

[NoleLizards]

If you have the first and the fourth picks, and you need both a RB and a QB, it seems pretty simple to me: there's a clear #1 RB in the draft, but there are three guys who could be the #1 QB.

Unless you're especially sold on one of the QBs (like your evaluations of them are worlds apart), don't you take the RB #1 and a QB at #4?

If you take the QB first, a) you might take the wrong one anyway, and b) you won't get the RB at #4. But if you take the RB first, you're still getting one of the top 3 QBs at #4, and he might be the best of the three, since no one knows anyway.

I recognize that I'm not a GM, but why wouldn't this be the logical strategy? That said, I'm positive the Browns screw this up.

That would make sense, and it could happen as the Browns have been hush-hush. John Dorsey's a GM with a great team-building record, so I trust he won't screw this up.

 

[scottcu]

hello Russ long time, i completely agree with your logic

 

[ReliableOstrich]

Agree w OP.

To my (very amateur) eye, no one of the 4 top QBs in the draft (Allen Rosen Darnold Mayfield) stand out from the rest, however Barkley seems like an absolute stud player. Would take him first and one of those QB with the #4 pick.

In fact I might even take that #4 pick and trade down a spot or two and snag the guard from Notre Dame (Quentin Nelson). Then pick up a QB later in the first, early second (Lamar Jackson?), or next year (presumably they'd now have an additional 1st rd pick in 2019 w/ the trade down).

Browns have Tyrod Taylor, who while not a Super Bowl QB is good enough to get a dysfunctional team like the Bills into the playoffs. So their offense will be loaded at the skill positions, bolstered on the OL, and ready for a stud QB next year who can play behind a moderately good OL.

 

[Manch.]

No, the Browns have screwed up this QB selection process enough. The Browns have a couple of RB's already, and are willing to take Chubb at no. 4 if Barkley goes to the NYG.

By taking Barkey 1st, and then a QB 3rd, tells me that they are afraid to commit to a QB and they are taking leftovers, which gives them another excuse if that QB goes on to suck.

They need to take the QB that rates highest on their board, redshirt him, marinate him or whatever, but they need to pick a QB first, or trade down with the Jets.

 

[ReliableOstrich]

No, the Browns have screwed up this QB selection process enough. The Browns have a couple of RB's already, and are willing to take Chubb at no. 4 if Barkley goes to the NYG.

By taking Barkey 1st, and then a QB 3rd, tells me that they are afraid to commit to a QB and they are taking leftovers, which gives them another excuse if that QB goes on to suck.

They need to take the QB that rates highest on their board, redshirt him, marinate him or whatever, but they need to pick a QB first, or trade down with the Jets.

But if Barkley rates higher as an overall franchise changing prospect, why not take him, rather than taking a QB just to send a message that they're not the 'same old bumbling browns'.

I'm also not convinced Carlos Hyde or Duke Johnson are even a fraction of the back Barkley will be.

Do what's right, who cares what people think. Sam Hinkie did what he thought was right, and while it cost him his job, the team he built has an (outside?) chance at the finals and is insanely young with big things to come.

Edit: upon re-reading your post, agree, perhaps if Barkley is their guy, trade down. Just got to be hopefully the Giants don't take him.

 

[NoleLizards]

Barkley's the next Marshall Faulk. Whoever gets him wins the Draft.

 

[SeaPA]

I am certain that the Browns will screw it up. Whatever they do will turn out to be wrong. They’re the Browns, it’s what they do.

 

[Nolomite]

The Browns have been negotiating with Denver to package the #1 & #4 picks for the Bronco's #5 pick. Denver is holding out for more and will likely get Cleveland's #33 pick to seal the deal.

 

[EconSean]

If you have the first and the fourth picks, and you need both a RB and a QB, it seems pretty simple to me: there's a clear #1 RB in the draft, but there are three guys who could be the #1 QB.

Unless you're especially sold on one of the QBs (like your evaluations of them are worlds apart), don't you take the RB #1 and a QB at #4?

If you take the QB first, a) you might take the wrong one anyway, and b) you won't get the RB at #4. But if you take the RB first, you're still getting one of the top 3 QBs at #4, and he might be the best of the three, since no one knows anyway.

I recognize that I'm not a GM, but why wouldn't this be the logical strategy? That said, I'm positive the Browns screw this up.

Am picturing them not getting the pick in in time.

 

[LikeaG5]

But if Barkley rates higher as an overall franchise changing prospect, why not take him, rather than taking a QB just to send a message that they're not the 'same old bumbling browns'.

I'm also not convinced Carlos Hyde or Duke Johnson are even a fraction of the back Barkley will be.

Do what's right, who cares what people think. Sam Hinkie did what he thought was right, and while it cost him his job, the team he built has an (outside?) chance at the finals and is insanely young with big things to come.

Edit: upon re-reading your post, agree, perhaps if Barkley is their guy, trade down. Just got to be hopefully the Giants don't take him.

Because the NFL is a QB driven league and you can find RBs all over the place and they typically have a shelf life in them.

 

[SeaPA]

Because the NFL is a QB driven league and you can find RBs all over the place and they typically have a shelf life in them.

doo if you don't like Barkley, then take the stud DE, or the stud lineman, with the first pick - then take the quarterback later

 

[LikeaG5]

doo if you don't like Barkley, then take the stud DE, or the stud lineman, with the first pick - then take the quarterback later

I'd take whoever I think the best QB is going to be first. Franchise QBs are worth their weight in gold, especially for the first 6 years contract wise then pick best player at 4 or trade down for someone wanting a qb that's left. Even if the QB is about Kirk Cousins level you hit with that pick.

 

[NoleLizards]

I'd take whoever I think the best QB is going to be first. Franchise QBs are worth their wait in gold, especially for the first 6 years contract wise then pick best player at 4 or trade down for someone wanting a qb that's left. Even if the QB is about Kirk Cousins level you hit with that pick.

If you go QB at 1 and the best player (Barkley's) not available at 4, it's incumbent upon the Browns to protect their investment by addressing the o-line. They could do so by either drafting Nelson there or (what I'd try to do) trade down to a QB-needy team like the Bills or Cards and then draft a left tackle to replace the retired Joe Thomas (plus get even more selections).

 

[LikeaG5]

If you go QB at 1 and the best player (Barkley's) not available at 4, it's incumbent upon the Browns to protect their investment by addressing the o-line. They could do so by either drafting Nelson there or (what I'd try to do) trade down to a QB-needy team like the Bills or Cards and then draft a left tackle to replace the retired Joe Thomas (plus get even more selections).

Depends on how high they see Chubb is. Pass rushers are also a premium. They say he is a better prospect than the guy who went 1 last year.

 

[NoleLizards]

Depends on how high they see Chubb is. Pass rushers are also a premium. They say he is a better prospect than the guy who went 1 last year.

Does Cleveland want to have to deal with two huge contracts at one position 4-5 years down the road though?

 

[LikeaG5]

Does Cleveland want to have to deal with two huge contracts at one position 4-5 years down the road though?

At that position, probably if both players are good/great.

 

[NoleLizards]

At that position, probably if both players are good/great.

We'll see what happens. You could well be right. Most mocks (just mocks, of course) I've seen have the Browns taking Chubb at 4 after QB @ 1. That said, I believe Cleveland has more immediate needs than DE (namely the o-line...especially LT).

 

[LikeaG5]

We'll see what happens. You could well be right. Most mocks (just mocks, of course) I've seen have the Browns taking Chubb at 4 after QB @ 1. That said, I believe Cleveland has more immediate needs than DE (namely the o-line...especially LT).

Ya this draft happens to be weak at LT. A couple decent RTs and that's about it. Micghcney from ND probably the best. The guard/center from Ohio State who tore his peck at the combine, but will be fine would be good for them with the first pick in the 2nd rd. They could also find a RB in the 2nd rd as well. I love Sony Michel the dude from USC etc.

 

[NoleLizards]

Ya this draft happens to be weak at LT. A couple decent RTs and that's about it. Micghcney from ND probably the best. The guard/center from Ohio State who tore his peck at the combine, but will be fine would be good for them with the first pick in the 2nd rd. They could also find a RB in the 2nd rd as well. I love Sony Michel the dude from USC etc.

Cleveland also needs help at the premium CB position. There are plenty of strong prospects available in the 20-40 range. If the Browns do this right, they could do like Dallas did in the early 90's by stocking their roster with young talent with all these picks.

 

[NoleMoreTears]

The financial aspect says take a QB first. From what I can tell the SB teams tend to have value at that position above all.

That said I see nothing wrong with OP logic. It's an odd draft this year in terms of how the talent spreads out.

 

[FSUdawg]

One of the problems the Browns have is their past. They passed on Carson Wentz, and look at how that is turning out.

If they take Barkley #1 and settle for a QB, they are going to get roasted if one of those selected at 2 or 3 turn out to be another Wentz. Of course, if they pick a QB #1 and the second or third QB taken turns out to be better, they are going to get roasted for that too.

So, essentially Cleveland is in a no win situation unless they happen to get it right.

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

Cleveland also needs help at the premium CB position. There are plenty of strong prospects available in the 20-40 range. If the Browns do this right, they could do like Dallas did in the early 90's by stocking their roster with young talent with all these picks.

Yeah, if you're uncertain why not trade down and get lots more picks?

 

[NDallasRuss]

It looks like Josh Allen might get knocked down to the bottom of that first group of QBs. Yet another example of why kids should be VERY careful with what they put online.

 

[NoleLizards]

It looks like Josh Allen might get knocked down to the bottom of that first group of QBs. Yet another example of why kids should be VERY careful with what they put online.

He should have listed to Herm:

 

[LT4PLY]

The Browns heard about the Dolphins resigning John Denney and are jealous of the longevity of his career. They have shifted their first pick to the best long snapper in the draft so they can compete.

 

[ReliableOstrich]

Regardless of whether it should or not, I don't see these tweets hurting Josh Allen's stock a whole lot. NFL GMs/owners are unlikely to be very phased by his immature and disturbing posts.

I am interested to see how it plays out though.

(Personally, I'd like to see him take a tumble down the draft. My opinion, of course, doesn't matter.)

 

[NoleLizards]

(Personally, I'd like to see him take a tumble down the draft.)

Bill Belichick agrees with you.

 

[ReliableOstrich]

Bill Belichick agrees with you.

Lol Bill would love Josh Allen **wink wink**

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

It looks like Josh Allen might get knocked down to the bottom of that first group of QBs. Yet another example of why kids should be VERY careful with what they put online.

My kids are tired of me saying this all the time, but these stupid mistakes can destroy their future before it gets started.

 

[ReliableOstrich]

A bit baffled that NFL teams spared no expense digging through Dalvin's background to find potential ties with dubious characters, whereas they didn't bother to spend 45 mins scrolling down this guy's Twitter timeline to see what kind of inane trash he's been thinking and tweeting.

They made so much of Dalvin's pals that he fell to Rd 2, whereas JA likely will still go top 10.

Would have been even more interesting if this came out tomorrow morning after a team dropped a top 4 pick on him, only to find out they've acquired a locker room timebomb.

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

If I recall correctly he tweeted this stuff when he was 15 or 16.

Not excusing anything, but perspective is important.

 

[NDallasRuss]

If I recall correctly he tweeted this stuff when he was 15 or 16.

Not excusing anything, but perspective is important.

It sounds like some of it was from back when he was in 8th grade. Dumbayse things to think/write, but another issue is that at no point during this process did Allen or his agent think to go back through and delete out anything that might be seen as negative. Shouldn't that have been automatic?

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

It sounds like some of it was from back when he was in 8th grade. Dumbayse things to think/write, but another issue is that at no point during this process did Allen or his agent think to go back through and delete out anything that might be seen as negative. Shouldn't that have been automatic?

I was wondering that too. Are tweets still retrievable if you delete your account? Or can you delete all tweets past a certain date?

My guess is quite a few agents were on the phone to their clients last 24 hours.

 

[ReliableOstrich]

It sounds like some of it was from back when he was in 8th grade. Dumbayse things to think/write, but another issue is that at no point during this process did Allen or his agent think to go back through and delete out anything that might be seen as negative. Shouldn't that have been automatic?

This.

Beyond a series of ridiculous tweets with racial overtones (to say the least). To not delete it while you're in college and know better or are at least taught to know better shows poor decision making.

Every program drills their players on how to use (and not use) social media, at no point did he have the wisdom to think, "hey I tweeted some racist and homophobic stuff back in 2010-2013, I should purge it." Instead it was either not important to him or not on his radar, which also says something about his character.

 

[helmetnuts]

I'll go off the script and say they should trade #4 to Buffalo for #12 and #22. You get the guy you think is the franchise QB at 1 but the Browns are not 2 players away....

1 - Looks like its going to be Baker Mayfield
12 - Mike McGlinchey - Need franchise LT to replace Joe Thomas
22 - Marcus Davenport - 2nd best pass rusher on board
33 - Whoever is left of Sony Michel/Derrius Guice/Ronald Jones
35 - Carlton Davis - Lock down CB
64 - Billy Price - 1st round talent at G/C falls due to pec injury

 

[ReliableOstrich]

I'll go off the script and say they should trade #4 to Buffalo for #12 and #22. You get the guy you think is the franchise QB at 1 but the Browns are not 2 players away....

1 - Looks like its going to be Baker Mayfield
12 - Mike McGlinchey - Need franchise LT to replace Joe Thomas
22 - Marcus Davenport - 2nd best pass rusher on board
33 - Whoever is left of Sony Michel/Derrius Guice/Ronald Jones
35 - Carlton Davis - Lock down CB
64 - Billy Price - 1st round talent at G/C falls due to pec injury

While I don't care for Baker Mayfield at #1, regardless of the name chosen, I do like the idea of trading #4 for add'l picks.

 

[fsUTampa]

This.

Beyond a series of ridiculous tweets with racial overtones (to say the least). To not delete it while you're in college and know better or are at least taught to know better shows poor decision making.

Every program drills their players on how to use (and not use) social media, at no point did he have the wisdom to think, "hey I tweeted some racist and homophobic stuff back in 2010-2013, I should purge it." Instead it was either not important to him or not on his radar, which also says something about his character.

How old are you? When you were in college, were you ever thinking "damn, wish I didn't say that when I was in middle school"? This generation, social media is the same thing as your general conversations a generation+ ago.

This is definitely on the agent (and himself, for sure) for not going back and deleting things now. But it's also faux outrage to manufacture some pre-draft drama that really is meaningless to an NFL GM.

 

[Gonolz]

I don't gamble a lot (okay that's a lie), but I bet whatever the Browns do will be a bad move.

 

[Manch.]

I don't gamble a lot (okay that's a lie), but I bet whatever the Browns do will be a bad move.

Like draft Mayfield first.