Right now it looks like the mortality rate is just below 2%. The issue is the exponential increase in transmission. For example, last Thursday when I spoke to my nephew (who lives in AL), there was one confirmed case in the entire state of AL. Today (5 days later), there are 39 confirmed cases. That’s a crazy increase in numbers over a short period of time. I don’t think we’ve any idea of just how many people will eventually test positive. I’ve seen projections of anywhere from 70 to 150 million people. That would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.4 million to 3 million deaths —- potentially.
This isn’t even taking into account how many folks die from other causes because resources are being devoted to trying to save COVID-19 patients while others who suffer strokes, heart attacks, etc die due to a lack of capacity/medical resources to treat everyone.
My mom was a Navy flight nurse in the South Pacific during WWII. She talked about picking up wounded servicemen at airfields & treating them on the way to field hospitals. She described the triage she had to engage in; the limited medical supplies available to her. Having to make difficult decisions about who to treat & who had injuries/wounds so severe, she had to let them go. I can’t even imagine the impact that had on her as a young woman in her early 20s. These are the types of choices the doctors in Itally have been having to make for weeks now. I hope it doesn’t come to this here in the US but I fear it might