1. Maguire makes case for next season
Sean Maguire's stat line against Florida was all right but certainly nothing to write home about -- 14-of-28 for 160 yards and one touchdown. Despite not posting big passing numbers, he was perfect in what was probably the most important stat of the game, zero interceptions.
Florida came into Saturday's game with arguably the nation's top secondary, having racked up a whopping 14 picks. The Gators have been able to overachieve this season by being extremely opportunistic and taking full advantage of turnovers. That's why it was so important for FSU's quarterback to avoid giving UF a short field and instead make the Gators earn points by driving the length of the field. Maguire was perfect in this category, and the result was a Seminole victory.
The redshirt junior has also shown steady progress since he made his first start on the road at Clemson. Unlike that game, which also came against a difficult opponent in a hostile environment, he didn't turn the ball over at Florida (not really counting the sack/fumble) and he made a huge play in the red zone that put the Seminoles in the driver's seat. And most importantly, he left a road venue versus a hated rival with a win.
It's also obvious that Maguire has the full support of his teammates. It looks like his linemen block a little longer, the backs run a little harder and the receivers make more plays when he's on the field. I doubt it's anything personal against Everett Golson, but let's face it, he was a hired gun that had no time to develop any kind of chemistry or camaraderie with his new teammates. Maguire, on the other hand, has been with this program for four years, has always been a team player, and never complained despite being dealt some bad hands.
Now that he has a major victory under his belt and a win against a huge rival on the road, Maguire is the odds-on favorite to start when Florida State opens the 2016 season against Ole Miss. It's hard to imagine that Jimbo Fisher would go with a freshman quarterback against what will probably be a ranked opponent in the opener. With a proven starter who has a ton of experience inside the program, and now with a handful of successful starts to his credit, it would be a surprise if someone other than Maguire led the Seminole offense in 2016.
2. Checking all the boxes
Florida State went into Saturday's game knowing the exact formula to achieve victory. Let's face it, there was no way Maguire was going to throw for over 300 yards or that FSU's offensive line was going to dominate the line of scrimmage. Knowing the team's limitations, the game plan was simple. Florida State had to complete three major tasks to ensure a win in The Swamp, and the 'Noles were a perfect three-for-three:
(1) Don't turn the ball over -- Going into Saturday's game, the Gators had forced 24 turnovers and won several close games by taking full advantage of opponent miscues. With UF boasting a stellar defense and with FSU somewhat limited on offense, protecting the football was the No. 1 priority for the Seminoles, and FSU was nearly perfect in this category -- even though FSU recovered its own fumble in the end zone for a safety.
(2) Win special teams -- Special teams often play a significant role in a game's final outcome. That role is magnified when there are two evenly matched opponents with top-notch defenses. That was the case Saturday night, and FSU's special teams turned in a near-perfect effort. Roberto Aguayo was a perfect 2-for-2 on field goals (no surprise there) while Florida's kicker was 0-for-2, and FSU was able to block one of his attempts. Florida's Johnny Townsend is an outstanding punter, but Cason Beatty actually out-punted him with an impressive average of 47.6 yards per punt. Beatty also pinned UF inside its own 20-yard line three times. Finally, FSU's coverage teams totally bottled up explosive returner Antonio Callaway, who had just eight total yards on two punt returns.
(3) Take full advantage of red-zone opportunities -- Going back to the narrow loss at Clemson, the 'Noles' inability to cash in with touchdowns in the red zone was probably the difference in the final outcome of that game (FSU scored a total of three points in two red-zone trips). Saturday night in Gainesville was a very different story as FSU was a perfect two-for-two in the red zone, including Sean Maguire's clutch fourth-down touchdown pass to Jeremy Kerr in the second quarter.
3. Fisher's dominance in the Sunshine State
You've probably heard the stat repeated a dozen times since the Seminoles' victory on Saturday --- Jimbo Fisher is 14-1 versus in-state competition. That includes going a perfect 6-0 versus Miami, and now a 5-1 record against Florida.
Posting an 11-1 record against two huge in-state rivals is by far FSU's best run against the Sunshine State since it started playing both schools in 1958, and it's not even close. The next closest run of dominance occurred between 1977 and 1980 when FSU held a 6-2 record against Miami and Florida, or the 6-2-1 record from 1993-96.
But comparing the 'Noles' recent run to other teams is difficult because very few states have three major football programs that compete against each other. Texas is one state to consider, but the major programs in the state haven't played each other consistently and Baylor and TCU have only been relevant in recent years.
California might be the only other state that has more than two major programs that play each other on a regular basis. However, comparing UCLA and Stanford to Miami and Florida is probably giving the Bruins and Cardinal too much credit. Neither program has won a national championship that is recognized by the NCAA, and the ones that are claimed occurred prior to FSU playing Miami and Florida. Even so, USC has the longest run of dominance against those programs from 2002-08 with a 15-2 overall record. Even so, several of those wins were vacated because of NCAA sanctions.
4. Defensive stats comparison
After the first couple games, I did a side-by-side comparison between the early defensive stats and the final stats from the 2014 season. As was correctly pointed out, it was pretty early to draw any hard conclusions other than to say that the defense does seem somewhat improved.
Now that the regular season is complete, we are much closer to comparing apples to apples. Here's a look at where FSU's defense currently stands compared to 2014:
DEFENSE
Total Defense - 327.7 ypg, No. 16 ranking / Last season: 397 ypg, No. 61
Rush Defense - 141.8 ypg, No. 37 ranking / Last season: 170 ypg, No. 71
Team Pass Efficiency Defense - No. 16 ranking / Last season: No. 66
Scoring Defense - 15.8 ppg, No. 6 ranking / Last season: 25.6 ppg, No. 49
Third Down Conv. Defense - 37.1%, No. 57 ranking / Last season: 43.9%, No. 103
Red Zone Defense - 80%, No. 42 ranking / Last season: 75%, No. 19
* There has been significant improvement across the board. The most impressive number is probably scoring defense, which has improved a whopping 10 points a game from last season.
5. ACC gets in the final shot vs. SEC
The Atlantic Coast Conference was pretty slow out of the gates to start the 2015 football campaign, but made a strong statement over the weekend. The conference went 3-1 versus the SEC during rivalry week and is now 7-1 over the last 2 years against the elite football conference in final week of the regular season.
After starting out with a 3-7 record versus Power 5 opponents, including Notre Dame, the ACC is now a somewhat respectable 8-11 on the season. However, that's well short of last year's impressive 10-7 regular-season mark against the Power 5*. The conference will get a chance to move that record to .500 or better during the upcoming bowl season.
No matter what happens in the bowls, it's clear that the ACC is trending upward. From 2009-13, the conference was a dismal 22-51 (30 percent) against Power 5 opponents.
* The ACC bombed during the 2014-15 bowl season, going 2-5 versus Power 5 competition, dropping the overall record on the season to 12-12.
