1. LSU really a threat to nab Fisher?
Not surprisingly, several national and regional writers, as well as some college football analysts, are throwing Jimbo Fisher's name out there again as a strong candidate for potential coaching vacancies. Yesterday, ESPN.com mentioned FSU's 50-year-old coach for both the USC job, which is open, and LSU, if the school's administration cuts ties with Les Miles as has been rumored.
Just a few weeks earlier, Fisher was mentioned as a potential candidate for both the Georgia and Texas jobs when it was rumored that the head coaches for those schools might be on the way out.
But the real threat, if any, to get Fisher to leave Tallahassee is in Baton Rouge, La.
First things first; LSU has to fire Les Miles for this to even be a concern. Surprisingly, that could be a realistic possibility.
At first blush, it's hard to fathom that Miles might be given his walking papers when you consider his history of success. While this season's 7-3 record is disappointing, it hardly seems enough to run off a coach that has an overall record 110-32, has averaged over 10 wins a season and is just a few years removed from a national championship. But I've been told by LSU insiders that the 62-year-old coach hasn't endeared himself to the administration, and the general feeling is that the program is on the decline with little optimism going forward.
In addition to the unprecedented move of terminating a coach that has proven to be a consistent winner, the price tag of buying out his contract is enormous. Reportedly, if LSU fires Miles now it will cost them $15 million! But those close to the program tell us the money is there to pay that hefty bill, and any other buyout it has to pay (Fisher's is $5 million), should it come to that.
Not surprisingly, should Miles be let go, Fisher would likely be LSU's top target. Going after him is one thing, but getting FSU's head coach to jump ship at this stage is probably wishful thinking on the part of Tiger boosters and possibly some in their administration.
I get that Fisher has some strong ties to the LSU program since he served as an assistant coach there from 2000-06. Also, the nearly unlimited resources available by virtue of LSU being a powerhouse SEC program has to be tempting. But those that are convinced that Fisher would bolt from Tallahassee if the job were offered aren't giving Florida State enough credit.
Over the past 30 years, the Seminoles can make a strong case for being the best team in college football. During this time frame, FSU has won three national championships, 15 conference championships and has the best winning percentage of any team in major college football (78.6 percent) ... and it's not even close. On top of that, since Fisher took over for Bobby Bowden in 2010, the school has made major investments into the program, including the building of an indoor practice facility, a new locker room, player dorms, coaches' offices and more.
Florida State's administration also made a major commitment to Fisher in January of this year. Just 10 months ago, he signed an eight-year deal that pays him approximately $5 million a year and is full of incentives that could make that number go even higher.
Coaching is a funny business, and every year there are some surprising moves. But I've been told that Fisher is really excited about the potential of this team going into what could be a special 2016 season. So even if a job like LSU opened up, and the Tigers came after Fisher with fists full of money, the timing for him leaving probably wouldn't be right.
2. Home versus Road
The opening betting line from the Vegas odds-makers tabbed Florida as a three-point favorite for this weekend's in-state showdown versus Florida State (the spread has since swung to FSU being a two-point favorite). But the opening line may have come as a surprise considering that FSU has played fairly well the last couple weeks compared to a struggling Florida team that needed overtime to defeat a 2-9 FAU team.
Clearly, the people that set the initial betting line were putting a lot of weight on the Seminoles' road struggles.
It's no secret that Jimbo Fisher's team hasn't been the same outside the friendly confines of Doak Campbell Stadium. In fact, this year's home and road teams haven't had much in common at all, especially when it comes to putting up points and yards. So how much of a difference is there between the 'Noles' offense at home vs. the road? Here's a statistical breakdown:
Points per game: Home - 42.0 / Road - 16.75
Yards per game: Home - 515.4 / Road - 296.7
Passing yards per game: Home - 296.0 / Road - 173.7
Rushing yards per game: Home - 219.3 / Road - 123.0
Yards per play: Home - 7.3 / Road - 5.2
Red-zone touchdown efficiency: Home - 18-30 60% (#43 national rank) / Road - 4-11 36.36% (#118 national rank)
If the inability to mount any kind of an offense on the road continues in Gainesville this week, the oddsmakers might have it right. But if FSU can match some of its efficiency at home, it might just pull off the upset.
3. What would a win Saturday mean to FSU's dominance in the state?
Florida State could really, really put its stamp on the state of Florida with a win Saturday. Since taking over the reins as head coach in 2010, Jimbo Fisher's record versus in-state schools is a remarkable 13-1. That's by far the longest stretch of dominance in the state of Florida since the 'Noles started playing football in 1947.
A win on Saturday could move the recent run against Sunshine State opponents to unprecedented levels. Florida State will face three in-state opponents next season -- @USF, @UM and UF -- and will probably be a favorite in all three games. If FSU wins this Saturday, Fisher's record vs. the state could be a ridiculous 17-1 at the conclusion of the 2016 season.
Against the Gators, Florida State could move its record to 5-1 since 2010 and for the first time own a three-game winning streak in The Swamp. A win would also tie the second-best run against the rivals from Gainesville, matching the 5-1 record from 1998-2003. The all-time best run against UF took place between 1987 and the end of the 1994 season when FSU owned its in-state rivals, going 7-1-1 during this period.
When it comes to the Miami Hurricanes, FSU has won six straight, which marks the second best run against the rivals from South Florida. The best streak ever is seven wins in a row from 1963-1972, which FSU could match next fall.
4. Heisman race update -- Cook vs. the competition
Derrick Henry (Alabama RB) -- Last game: 9 carries for 68 yards and 2 TDs. On the season: 249 carries for 1,526 yards and 21 rushing TDs. Commentary: Because Alabama is in the thick of the national championship race and with the backing of the SEC media machine, Henry is far and away the leader to win the Heisman. The season finale vs. Auburn might solidify his position as the frontrunner considering the Tigers have a lousy run defense.
Deshaun Watson (Clemson QB) -- Last game: 24-35 for 343 yards and 4 total TDs, 1 INT. He also had 44 rushing yards. On the season: Thrown for 2,944 yards, is completing over 70% of his pass attempts and has 26 TD passes and 6 TD runs. Commentary: Watson should be getting more hype for college football's top individual award but it appears as though he's got a ways to go to catch Henry. A big game in the ACC championship game could help.
Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma QB) -- Last game: 9-20 for 127 yards and 2 TDs. On the season: Thrown for 3,209 yards, completed 68.7% of his passes and has an amazing 33/5 TD to interception ratio. Commentary: Mayfield is a long shot considering he was injured Saturday and didn't put up huge numbers. On the positive, Oklahoma may be back in the national championship hunt.
Dalvin Cook (Florida State RB) -- Last game: 15 carries for 106 yards and 2 TDs. For the season: 185 carries for 1,475 yards and 16 TDs (8.0 yards per carry). He also has 207 receiving yards and another TD. Commentary: In terms of yards per carry, none of the other backs are even close -- Elliott has averaged 6.3 yards per carry, Henry 5.75, Fournette 6.6 and McCaffrey 5.9. However, with FSU being out of both the national championship hunt and ACC title game, and with a surprising lack of national attention, Cook is a major long shot. That being said, a monster performance against an elite Florida defense this Saturday would give Cook a strong late-season push.
Ezekiel Elliott (Ohio State RB) - Last game: 12 carries for 33 yards and 1 TD. On the season: 232 rushes for 1,548 yards and 17 TDs. Commentary: Elliott's lackluster performance on Saturday and incendiary post-game comments probably didn't help his cause.
Christian McCaffrey (Stanford RB) - Last game: 29 carries for 192 yards, and 49 receiving yards. Also had 148 yards on kick returns. Scored 2 TDs -- one receiving and one on a kickoff returns. On the season: 260 carries for 1,546 yards and 7 TDs. He is also the leading receiver for the Cardinal with 34 catches for 416 yards and 3 TDs. Commentary: With a great game vs. Cal and Notre Dame coming up next week, McCaffrey might have an outside shot at making a run at Henry.
Leonard Fournette (LSU RB) -- Last game: 25 carries for 108 yards. Season: 239 rushes for 1,582 yards and 17 TDs. Commentary: Looks like Fournette's ship has sailed with LSU losing three straight and the NCAA investigating whether his family violated eligibility rules.
5. Looking ahead to the defense in 2016
A post on the Tribal Council last week got me thinking about what the Seminole defense will look like next season. We all know the entire offense returns, but there will be some significant losses on the other side of the ball.
Here's a look at how each defensive position might look in 2016:
Defensive end. There could be a slight drop-off should DeMarcus Walker decide to leave early for the NFL. If he comes back, the position should be incredibly strong. No matter what happens, there is good depth here with established players like Josh Sweat, Jacob Pugh and Lorenzo Featherston. Sweat could really emerge as a force with a full year to get stronger and work on his technique.
Defensive tackle. Even though FSU will lose Nile Lawrence-Stample and backup Derrick Mitchell, there is a lot of talent and depth here. With another year, players like Derrick Nnadi, Demarcus Christmas, Arthur Williams and Fredrick Jones could really flourish.
Linebacker. This could be the make-or-break position for the defense in 2016. FSU will lose one full-time (Terrance Smith) and one part-time (Reggie Northrup) starter. Ro'Derrick Hoskins will be back, and there is some real excitement surrounding Sh'Mar Kilby-Lane. Junior college transfer Lorenzo Phillips will have another year to learn the system as well, so there's a decent base. But after that, there are plenty of question marks. The X-factor is Matthew Thomas. If he stays eligible and healthy he could be a difference-maker, and this position could end up being even better in 2016. Also, Tyrell Lyons was playing well before his injury and could be a major contributor if healthy. With so much up in the air, it's really hard to predict how this position will pan out -- could be better, the same or worse.
Safety. Even with Lamarcus Brutus, Tyler Hunter and Javien Ellliott moving on, this position could be better in 2016. With Nate Andrews and Derwin James both returning, and a healthy Trey Marshall back playing the "Star" position, this could be the best group of safeties in the ACC. It's going to be scary having these three guys in the secondary together next year. A.J. Westbrook, Calvin Brewton and Marcus Lewis should provide good depth.
Cornerback. There's no sugar-coating the fact that FSU will likely lose the nation's top cornerback when Jalen Ramsey declares early for the NFL draft. That's definitely going to hurt, but Marquez White has proven himself as an excellent cornerback. The question will be how quickly can former five-star standout Tarvarus McFadden catch on if he takes over the other spot? There could be a decent base for the starters, but depth will be a concern here. It could even be that true freshman Lavonta Taylor will be called upon to play early.
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