I keep looking at lists of Jimbo replacements, and lots of people seem sure that if only we could get the latest hot name that is doing well at a smaller school, or coordinating a good team, then we'll finally reach the expectations they have for this program.
It always reminds me that I've seen sooooo many coaches go from "can't miss, the next best thing once he gets more resources" to fired once they got their break. Or I've watched as they went from mentioned for every possible gig, to no longer mentioned at all. I rarely hear Tom Herman mentioned at all on this board, when this time last year he was a permanent talking point.
Mike MacIntyre, Colorado
How he became a hot name: 10-4 in 2016, Walter Camp Coach of the Year
After he became a hot name: 5-6 in 2017
Dan Hawkins, Boise State to Colorado
How he became a hot name: 53-11 at Boise State between 2001-2005
After he became a hot name: 19-39 at Colorado from 2006-2010.
Fired.
Mike London, Richmond to Virginia
How he became a hot name: 24-5 at Richmond, ACC coach of the year
After he became a hot name: 27-46 at Virginia
Fired.
Mario Cristobal, FIU
How he became a hot name: Took an 0-12 FIU program and made them 7-6, and 8-5 in 2010-2011, elite recruiter, College Gameday segment about him being a hot commodity
After he became a hot name: 3-9 in 2012
Fired.
Turner Gill, Buffalo to Kansas
How he became a hot name: Mid-American coach of the year in 2007 and 2008. Article gushing about him when he was still an up and comer.
After he became a hot name: 5-19 at Kansas
Fired.
Larry Fedora, Southern Miss to North Carolina
How he became a hot name: Led Southern miss to 12 wins, UNC to 11 wins
After he became a hot name: 3-8 in 2017
Al Golden, Temple to Miami
How he became a hot name: Led Temple to 9-4 and 8-4 seasons from 2009-2010. "The 41-year-old Golden, a former Red Bank, N.J. Catholic star who was the starting tight end and captain of Paterno's 1991 Fiesta Bowl team, has become the latest boy wonder in college football."
After her became a hot name: 32-25 at Miami
Fired.
Todd Graham, Tulsa to Pitt to Arizona State
How he became a hot name: Coach of the year CUSA and Pac12
After he became a hot name: 17-19 from 2015-present
Charlie Strong, from Louisville to Texas
How he became a hot name: 37-15 record at Louisville, 23-3 from 2012-2013
After he became a hot name: 16-21 record at Texas
Fired
Butch Jones, from Central Michigan to Cincinnati to Tennessee
How he became a hot name: 27-13 at Central Michigan (11-2 in final year), 23-14 at Cincinnati (finished ranked in final two years)
After he became a hot name: 34-27 at Tennessee, 14-24 in the SEC
Fired.
Skip Holtz, from East Carolina to USF
How he became a hot name: Consecutive 9-win seasons from 2008-2009
After he became a hot name: 5-16 record in the Big East
Fired.
Kevin Sumlin, from Houston to Texas A&M
How he became a hot name: 35-17 record at Houston from 2008-2011 (12-1 in final season), top offense in the country at Houston
After he became a hot name: 25-22 in the SEC
Randy Edsall, from Connecticut to Maryland
How he became a hot name: 33-19 from 2007-2010, Big East Champion, Big East Coach of the Year
After he became a hot name: 22-34 from 2011-2015
Fired.
Bret Bielma, from Wisconsin to Arkansas
How he became a hot name: 68-24 at Wisconsin, three straight Rose Bowl births
After he became a hot name: 29-33 from 2013-present, 11-28 in the SEC
Will Muschamp, from Texas to Florida
How he became a hot name: Named head coach in waiting at Texas, known as elite recruiter and coordinator
After he became a hot name: 28-21 at Florida, lost to Georgia Southern at home
Fired.
Jim McElwain, From Colorado to Florida
How he became a hot name: Saban Disciple, led Colorado State to 8-6 and 10-3 seasons from 2013-2014
After he became a hot name: Named Swamp Donkey, struggled in recruiting, 3-4 to start 2017 season
Fired.
This doesn't even include once "hot names" that were fired like Rich Rodriguez, Lane Kiffin, Randy Shannon, Hugh Freeze, etc.
Sure there are success stories of "hot names" becoming good coaches like James Franklin, Chris Peterson, Jimbo Fisher, Kirby Smart, Urban Meyer. But the misses seem far more common.
Willie Taggart or Scott Frost could be the next great offensive coaches or they could be Kevin Sumlin or Larry Fedora.
Pruitt could be the next Kirby Smart, or he could be the next Will Muschamp or Randy Shannon.
Lane Kiffin might turn it around and cash in his recruiting ability/name recognition or he might just be Butch Jones and Derek Dooley.
I like Dave Clawson at Wake, Dino Babers at Syracuse, and Matt Campbell at Iowa State and see them producing competitive teams at lesser programs but I still can't discern why I should expect them to be any better at bigger programs than Jim McElwain who did the same thing at Colorado State, or Mike London who actually won ACC coach of the year, or Todd Graham, or Randy Edsall. And even if one of them will be really successful, I can't discern which one based on the very small sample size.
It's just really hard to tell. I guess that is why I'm just looking at the list of candidates if Jimbo were to leave and shrugging my shoulders, expecting 80% of those names to be future Al Goldens and probably 0% of them to be future Meyers.
It always reminds me that I've seen sooooo many coaches go from "can't miss, the next best thing once he gets more resources" to fired once they got their break. Or I've watched as they went from mentioned for every possible gig, to no longer mentioned at all. I rarely hear Tom Herman mentioned at all on this board, when this time last year he was a permanent talking point.
Mike MacIntyre, Colorado
How he became a hot name: 10-4 in 2016, Walter Camp Coach of the Year
After he became a hot name: 5-6 in 2017
Dan Hawkins, Boise State to Colorado
How he became a hot name: 53-11 at Boise State between 2001-2005
After he became a hot name: 19-39 at Colorado from 2006-2010.
Fired.
Mike London, Richmond to Virginia
How he became a hot name: 24-5 at Richmond, ACC coach of the year
After he became a hot name: 27-46 at Virginia
Fired.
Mario Cristobal, FIU
How he became a hot name: Took an 0-12 FIU program and made them 7-6, and 8-5 in 2010-2011, elite recruiter, College Gameday segment about him being a hot commodity
After he became a hot name: 3-9 in 2012
Fired.
Turner Gill, Buffalo to Kansas
How he became a hot name: Mid-American coach of the year in 2007 and 2008. Article gushing about him when he was still an up and comer.
After he became a hot name: 5-19 at Kansas
Fired.
Larry Fedora, Southern Miss to North Carolina
How he became a hot name: Led Southern miss to 12 wins, UNC to 11 wins
After he became a hot name: 3-8 in 2017
Al Golden, Temple to Miami
How he became a hot name: Led Temple to 9-4 and 8-4 seasons from 2009-2010. "The 41-year-old Golden, a former Red Bank, N.J. Catholic star who was the starting tight end and captain of Paterno's 1991 Fiesta Bowl team, has become the latest boy wonder in college football."
After her became a hot name: 32-25 at Miami
Fired.
Todd Graham, Tulsa to Pitt to Arizona State
How he became a hot name: Coach of the year CUSA and Pac12
After he became a hot name: 17-19 from 2015-present
Charlie Strong, from Louisville to Texas
How he became a hot name: 37-15 record at Louisville, 23-3 from 2012-2013
After he became a hot name: 16-21 record at Texas
Fired
Butch Jones, from Central Michigan to Cincinnati to Tennessee
How he became a hot name: 27-13 at Central Michigan (11-2 in final year), 23-14 at Cincinnati (finished ranked in final two years)
After he became a hot name: 34-27 at Tennessee, 14-24 in the SEC
Fired.
Skip Holtz, from East Carolina to USF
How he became a hot name: Consecutive 9-win seasons from 2008-2009
After he became a hot name: 5-16 record in the Big East
Fired.
Kevin Sumlin, from Houston to Texas A&M
How he became a hot name: 35-17 record at Houston from 2008-2011 (12-1 in final season), top offense in the country at Houston
After he became a hot name: 25-22 in the SEC
Randy Edsall, from Connecticut to Maryland
How he became a hot name: 33-19 from 2007-2010, Big East Champion, Big East Coach of the Year
After he became a hot name: 22-34 from 2011-2015
Fired.
Bret Bielma, from Wisconsin to Arkansas
How he became a hot name: 68-24 at Wisconsin, three straight Rose Bowl births
After he became a hot name: 29-33 from 2013-present, 11-28 in the SEC
Will Muschamp, from Texas to Florida
How he became a hot name: Named head coach in waiting at Texas, known as elite recruiter and coordinator
After he became a hot name: 28-21 at Florida, lost to Georgia Southern at home
Fired.
Jim McElwain, From Colorado to Florida
How he became a hot name: Saban Disciple, led Colorado State to 8-6 and 10-3 seasons from 2013-2014
After he became a hot name: Named Swamp Donkey, struggled in recruiting, 3-4 to start 2017 season
Fired.
This doesn't even include once "hot names" that were fired like Rich Rodriguez, Lane Kiffin, Randy Shannon, Hugh Freeze, etc.
Sure there are success stories of "hot names" becoming good coaches like James Franklin, Chris Peterson, Jimbo Fisher, Kirby Smart, Urban Meyer. But the misses seem far more common.
Willie Taggart or Scott Frost could be the next great offensive coaches or they could be Kevin Sumlin or Larry Fedora.
Pruitt could be the next Kirby Smart, or he could be the next Will Muschamp or Randy Shannon.
Lane Kiffin might turn it around and cash in his recruiting ability/name recognition or he might just be Butch Jones and Derek Dooley.
I like Dave Clawson at Wake, Dino Babers at Syracuse, and Matt Campbell at Iowa State and see them producing competitive teams at lesser programs but I still can't discern why I should expect them to be any better at bigger programs than Jim McElwain who did the same thing at Colorado State, or Mike London who actually won ACC coach of the year, or Todd Graham, or Randy Edsall. And even if one of them will be really successful, I can't discern which one based on the very small sample size.
It's just really hard to tell. I guess that is why I'm just looking at the list of candidates if Jimbo were to leave and shrugging my shoulders, expecting 80% of those names to be future Al Goldens and probably 0% of them to be future Meyers.
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