Keep an eye on Inv 97L (Now Hurricane Matthew)
- Thread starter Fijimn
- Start date
Haiti is now getting battered by Matthew.... I added the Guantanamo Bay radar and IR satellite images on my site: https://www.tropicalweather.net/hurricane-and-travel-message-board/viewforum.php?f=85
I think Palm Beach County north is under a hurricane watch, while Broward and Miami are under tropical storm watches.
A man jumped from the 10th story and is falling to the ground. A woman at the 4th floor sees him from her window and asks, "Hey, how's it going?". The man replies "So far, so good."
Hurricane watches are issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated tropical storm force winds.
I've read there maybe some shifts at 500 in the cone. Are the models shifting that far west?
Will be long gone from Miami by Saturday. My guess would be beautiful weather. Now what the ports of call look like...
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if this thing hits Jax, it will be Saturday, correct?
My FIL wants to drive from Tally to pick up my daughter (no pics) at UNF tomorrow.
My FIL wants to drive from Tally to pick up my daughter (no pics) at UNF tomorrow.
Will be in NC by Saturday. Would be gorgeous weather in Jax. Time to leave Jax, if you're going to leave, is Wednesday or Thursday morning.
That sounds like a good idea.
Get in and out before the exodus leaves, if there is an evacuation.
I-10 turned into one way west would not be a pretty sight to behold. Almost as bad as I-95 as one way north. (Wish that would stay after the storm)
The time to bug out if you're gonna leave is early tomorrow and secure a hotel now. Heard horror stories of traffic jams on 95, 75, 4, and 10 during Floyd. And that sucker curved away at the last minute. Im gonna ride this motha out.
Track forecast for Matthew
The significant westward shift in computer model guidance on Hurricane Matthew that occurred yesterday is holding, and we now have increased confidence that Matthew will bring severe impacts to the Southeast U.S. coast from South Florida to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
Matthew will continue northwards after clearing the southwest tip of Haiti Tuesday morning, then make a second landfall in eastern Cuba at about 6 pm EDT Tuesday. Matthew will turn north-northwest and then northwest on Wednesday, and traverse The Bahamas from southeast to northwest Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. In their 5 am EDT Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave highest odds of hurricane-force winds in The Bahamas to Great Exuma (57%), New Providence (46%), and Grand Bahama (37%).
Late Thursday morning, Matthew will be very close to the coast of South Florida, and is expected to turn more to the north-northwest, almost parallel to the coast, at that time. The latest 00Z and 06Z Tuesday runs of our top two models for predicting hurricane tracks—the GFS and European models—did not show a Florida landfall, but brought the hurricane so close to Florida—within 50 miles—that most of the coast of Florida from West Palm Beach to Daytona Beach would experience sustained winds of at least 50 mph, if these forecasts verified. Keep in mind that the diameter of NHC’s cone of uncertainty two days into the future is about 100 miles; the cone is about 130 miles across three days into the future. On average, about two-thirds of all hurricanes stay within the cone, but some hurricanes are tougher to predict than others, and Matthew certainly falls into that category. Thus, it would not be a surprise to see Matthew make landfall in Florida. Two of the four members of the Euro “high-probability” cluster--the ensemble forecasts that most closely match the operational run--depicted Matthew making landfall on Florida’s East Coast near West Palm Beach on Thursday. In their 5 am EDT Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave highest odds of hurricane-force winds in Florida to Ft. Pierce (22%), West Palm Beach (21%), and Cocoa Beach (19%). Update: At 11 am EDT Tuesday, NHC placed the Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line under a Hurricane Watch, with a Tropical Storm Watch in effect southward from south of Deerfield Beach to the Seven Mile Bridge in the Florida Keys, including Lake Okeechobee.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/J...s-haiti-their-strongest-hurricane-in-52-years
The significant westward shift in computer model guidance on Hurricane Matthew that occurred yesterday is holding, and we now have increased confidence that Matthew will bring severe impacts to the Southeast U.S. coast from South Florida to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
Matthew will continue northwards after clearing the southwest tip of Haiti Tuesday morning, then make a second landfall in eastern Cuba at about 6 pm EDT Tuesday. Matthew will turn north-northwest and then northwest on Wednesday, and traverse The Bahamas from southeast to northwest Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. In their 5 am EDT Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave highest odds of hurricane-force winds in The Bahamas to Great Exuma (57%), New Providence (46%), and Grand Bahama (37%).
Late Thursday morning, Matthew will be very close to the coast of South Florida, and is expected to turn more to the north-northwest, almost parallel to the coast, at that time. The latest 00Z and 06Z Tuesday runs of our top two models for predicting hurricane tracks—the GFS and European models—did not show a Florida landfall, but brought the hurricane so close to Florida—within 50 miles—that most of the coast of Florida from West Palm Beach to Daytona Beach would experience sustained winds of at least 50 mph, if these forecasts verified. Keep in mind that the diameter of NHC’s cone of uncertainty two days into the future is about 100 miles; the cone is about 130 miles across three days into the future. On average, about two-thirds of all hurricanes stay within the cone, but some hurricanes are tougher to predict than others, and Matthew certainly falls into that category. Thus, it would not be a surprise to see Matthew make landfall in Florida. Two of the four members of the Euro “high-probability” cluster--the ensemble forecasts that most closely match the operational run--depicted Matthew making landfall on Florida’s East Coast near West Palm Beach on Thursday. In their 5 am EDT Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave highest odds of hurricane-force winds in Florida to Ft. Pierce (22%), West Palm Beach (21%), and Cocoa Beach (19%). Update: At 11 am EDT Tuesday, NHC placed the Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line under a Hurricane Watch, with a Tropical Storm Watch in effect southward from south of Deerfield Beach to the Seven Mile Bridge in the Florida Keys, including Lake Okeechobee.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/J...s-haiti-their-strongest-hurricane-in-52-years
Not this one, too close. It'll be a washing machine until it passes and then flat as a lake once the backside offshores move in.
My in laws live in South Ponte Vedra right close to the border with Vilano Beach, about two miles north of Caps. They're bugging out of the island tomorrow afternoon and coming to our house.
We're in Northern St Johns but not in a flood plain or evac zone. We're going to stock up and hope this bastard shifts east.
Good luck. After 5 days without power last month, I've changed my mind on when I leave or stay.
Late news on Channel 25 tonight skirted around the word catastrophic ...Moving west and north. Jacksonville right in the cross hairs.
I know the ACC is watching this closely. Wonder what the time frame is for making a decision on the game. The storm will be gone but there's a good chance the area will be in recovery mode.
The thing is the team would have to travel down into a hurricane and a state of emergency area. I just don't see how they could let them do that.
Both of the models are now showing a loop back south. The ridge builds to the north stalling it near South Carolina before sending it back south / southwest Sunday into next week.
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