Most betting odds have FSU's 2021 Over Under on wins at 5.5. They basically have 2 guaranteed wins with UMass and JaxSt and one "likely' win with Syracuse. They have four kind of middle of the road Atlantic division opponents in: Wake, Louisville, NC State and BC. I think they should be the underdog in all four and I'll explain why. Last years team was dominated by Louisville, NCState, and Pitt. They also lost to Georgia Tech in the opener who I would argue is/was below this middle Atlantic tier. They lost to Louisville by 32 points, Pitt by 24 and NCState by 16. It's worth noting that going into the 4th quarter vs NCState that NCState had a 35-9 lead and FSU's last two scores were decidedly in garbage time. I've heard that 2 standard deviations from the expected Vegas point spread is basically 17 points in either direction. I think I heard that 17 point swing from. It is nonetheless a very reasonable stat. FSU is really outside of that with the middle of the Atlantic. David M Hale talked about the fact that Taggart in year 2 wouldn't get to 7 wins because, if I recall correctly something like 4 or 5 losses were of 19 or more points. He said that FSU should build a statue for him if he gets 7 wins (around Feb or March of the offseason I can dig it up if anyone doubts it). So where is the disconnect? Vegas can't be wrong?... well in 2019 Vegas had their win total at 7 and they got 6
In 2018 Vegas said 7.5 and the actual win total was 5
www.cbssports.com
In 2017 Vegas said 10.5 and the actual win total was 7
But what about 2020? I have a hard time finding betting odd for it because it was such an odd year. I did find DraftKings say 7.5... of course they off by 3.5
dknation.draftkings.com
I have heard the term "year zero" for Norvell and staff. It is a compelling thought to me that a first year head coach and his staff would be hit much, much harder their first year than other programs. The problem with this theory is that there isn't a lot of data to support or refute it just because that's only one season and there's not enough first year coaches in that one year to truly measure. Since some out there have cited other programs that struggle with a first year Covid coach, I would like to cite an example of a first year coach who, in my opinion didn't struggle. Jeff Hafley at Boston College had 6 wins and his team had 6 wins prior. Technically zero drop off in win total. He played 10 conference games in his "year zero" and it wasn't a cake walk either as he faced Clemson and Notre Dame. Conversely FSU only faced one of those 2 who were both in the title game. Boston College improved on defense from the previous year and installed a new passing attack with a transfer QB that deviated from the power run conservative style of Addazio. The reason I'm saying this is that: I don't believe "year zero" is a thing. I know I did say that there is not enough information and I still believe that... however, if we are going to do "anecdotal statistics" then lets at least bring into the conversation the one example in the exact same division... So if FSU went 3-9 and if they fell behind in the pre 2020 offseason then why do they magically get a pass to catch up to everyone else in their pre 2021 offseason? Everyone else has a better offseason going into 2021 too. Does FSU's "new coach + covid" setback spill into future years? It is hard to say... I will agree that "year zero" might have set FSU back, but how much is it? Is it 3 wins? ... is it 14 points per game? Did it set them back 21 points a game? I have a hard time believing that it set them back more that 7-10 points a game. I don't know how we account for them making up the rest of the point differential to go 2-2 vs their middle of the road Atlantic opponents? Yes they have Milton. I don't think he'll set the world on fire for 3 reasons: 1) Norvell hasn't named him the starter 2) On WakeUpWarchant podcast Aslan mentioned that before the spring game that the vast majority of scrimmages they saw that both QBs didn't look good (side note WakeUpWarchant Corey has cited that the WRs one on one with air and no pass rush and safety did look not so great) 3) If Milton were the ex Heisman vote getter everyone keeps touting then he'd be starting for Notre Dame instead of Jack Coan. FSU took a huge gamble because they were desperate... People don't realize that the defense was 107th in the country without playing Clemson's offense and Florida's offense. They don't have a DB like Asante Samuel Jr this year. And everyone thinks the DLine is now great... we've seen this movie before and the credits! On NoleCast Ingram Smith rightfully did a mea culpa touting Kaindoh before 2020. He mentioned that they didn't realize that it was just the OLine being terrible. Well now the FSU coaching staff says a backup senior transfer DE from UGA is the best player on the team. That alone should give you pause that this is not an 8 win team. I'll go farther to mention that WakeUpWarchant's Aslon did an interview with DLT and DLT said his toughest matchup was Kaindoh. He didn't say Jermaine Johnson. Maybe it was because he's rehabbing? Idk. Btw Kaindoh did go to the NFL in the 4th round. Yes Wilson didn't get drafted but he was a huge guy but
he was pre-season all ACC:
How many guys now are preseason all ACC? Less than the 3-6 team... ok... then how again can they make the jump from 3 to 6 wins? Ok yeah, guys were out at the end but they were more or less full strength vs a Georgia Tech team playing backup DLinemen and getting pressure.
I took David M Hale's position rankings and did some raw averages and it doesn't look good for FSU. FSU is close to Syracuse. Syracuse is a terrible team but they do have pass rushers...
In 2018 Vegas said 7.5 and the actual win total was 5
Las Vegas releases 2018 college football win totals for all 129 FBS teams
The over-under win totals for nearly all of the FBS teams for the 2018 college football season
www.cbssports.com
But what about 2020? I have a hard time finding betting odd for it because it was such an odd year. I did find DraftKings say 7.5... of course they off by 3.5
Full list of 2020 college football win totals
We are 150 days from the scheduled start of college football, and we’ve got win totals for every FBS team.
dknation.draftkings.com
he was pre-season all ACC:
How many guys now are preseason all ACC? Less than the 3-6 team... ok... then how again can they make the jump from 3 to 6 wins? Ok yeah, guys were out at the end but they were more or less full strength vs a Georgia Tech team playing backup DLinemen and getting pressure.
I took David M Hale's position rankings and did some raw averages and it doesn't look good for FSU. FSU is close to Syracuse. Syracuse is a terrible team but they do have pass rushers...
| FSU | Wake | Louisville | NC State | Boston College | North Carolina | Clemson | Miami | Syracuse |
QB | 11 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
Run Game | 4 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
Pass Game | 14 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
OL | 11 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 12 |
DL | 13 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
LB | 8 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 7 |
DB | 13 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
ST | 11 | 9 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Average | 10.63 | 8.25 | 7.75 | 5.63 | 9.63 | 3.63 | 2.50 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
Off Ave | 10.00 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 2.25 | 2.75 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
Def Ave | 11.33 | 10.00 | 7.00 | 4.00 | 12.33 | 3.33 | 2.33 | 6.00 | 8.67 |
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