You may need some aspirin (or something stronger) after reading this. I am just trying to understand the playing field for the B12 contraction and expansion...and wonder who else it impacts. It is pretty interesting. There are always rumors about OU and Texas leaving early for the SEC, but as of now, here is the current situation:
1). Publicly, OU and Texas have stated that they intend to stay in the Big 12 until the current B12 TV contract ends, after the 2024 season. If that remains true, here is what the Big 12 will look like in the next 4 years.
2). In the 2022 season, the Big 12 will remain in its current format as a ten team conference.
3). BYU ends independence and joins the B12 for the 2023 season, making it an 11 team conference.
4). UCF, Houston and Cincy join the B12 in 2024 making the B12 a 14 team conference.
5). OU and Texas play in the SEC in the 2025 season, making the B12 a 12 team conference.
If this remains true, the B12 will have to negotiate an "adjustment" in its current TV contract for its new members for the 2023 and 2024 season, and then enter into a new long term TV contract starting with the 2025 season for its 12 team conference, which is the first year without OU and Texas.
We have all read the rumors of how the B10 TV negotiations are going for their new contract that starts with the 2024 season (apparently very well for the Big Ten), but not much, or any, buzz about the Big 12 TV negotiations. There are "rumors" that UCF, Cincy and UH will cut a deal with the AAC to possibly leave that conference early and join the B12 with BYU in the 2023 season. Some are "speculating" that if that happens, in order to simplify all this mess, a deal will be struck so that OU and Texas will join the SEC two years early starting with the 2023 season. B12 leadership (what an oxymoron) is adamant that OU and Texas will not leave before the 2025 season. We shall see.
Well, the B12 leadership can be adamant, but they need to work with their current network partners (FOX and ESPN), who have the rights for the current B12 contract that ends with the 2024 season, and then the B12 can, if they want to, put out their new 12 team TV conference contract out for bid starting with the 2025 season. And FOX and ESPN seem to be busy right now with the Big Ten, and ESPN still has to figure out how to reprice their SEC contract with the addition of OU and Texas. ESPN not only would like OU and Texas to be in the SEC earlier because if would give them 100% of those two media giants instead of sharing that with FOX, but also, apparently, ESPN can renegotiate the Long Horn Network when Texas joins the SEC. The current LHN contract expires in 2031 and ESPN would love to end that early as they are losing money on it. The B12 may be inspired to be less adamant about holding on to Texas and OU while they try to get ESPN to bid for its new TV contract. It usually isn't a good negotiating tactic to not give your network partner what it wants, when you want that partner to sign up for a new contract starting with 2025. Kind of how CBS refused to give the SEC more money for the SEC Game of the Week when the Aggies and Missouri joined the SEC. And then when the CBS contract came up for bid, oh well, goodbye CBS.
The ACC is doing all it can to help ESPN by holding on to its current contract that has 13 years left, well past all this drama. ESPN can focus on the Big Ten, the SEC, the LHN, etc. and ignore the ACC as we are "out of sight..out of mind" while all this is going on. Ok, that was too easy.
But nothing happens in a vacuum. The B12 can have a major impact on other conferences, depending how all this shakes out.
1). Publicly, OU and Texas have stated that they intend to stay in the Big 12 until the current B12 TV contract ends, after the 2024 season. If that remains true, here is what the Big 12 will look like in the next 4 years.
2). In the 2022 season, the Big 12 will remain in its current format as a ten team conference.
3). BYU ends independence and joins the B12 for the 2023 season, making it an 11 team conference.
4). UCF, Houston and Cincy join the B12 in 2024 making the B12 a 14 team conference.
5). OU and Texas play in the SEC in the 2025 season, making the B12 a 12 team conference.
If this remains true, the B12 will have to negotiate an "adjustment" in its current TV contract for its new members for the 2023 and 2024 season, and then enter into a new long term TV contract starting with the 2025 season for its 12 team conference, which is the first year without OU and Texas.
We have all read the rumors of how the B10 TV negotiations are going for their new contract that starts with the 2024 season (apparently very well for the Big Ten), but not much, or any, buzz about the Big 12 TV negotiations. There are "rumors" that UCF, Cincy and UH will cut a deal with the AAC to possibly leave that conference early and join the B12 with BYU in the 2023 season. Some are "speculating" that if that happens, in order to simplify all this mess, a deal will be struck so that OU and Texas will join the SEC two years early starting with the 2023 season. B12 leadership (what an oxymoron) is adamant that OU and Texas will not leave before the 2025 season. We shall see.
Well, the B12 leadership can be adamant, but they need to work with their current network partners (FOX and ESPN), who have the rights for the current B12 contract that ends with the 2024 season, and then the B12 can, if they want to, put out their new 12 team TV conference contract out for bid starting with the 2025 season. And FOX and ESPN seem to be busy right now with the Big Ten, and ESPN still has to figure out how to reprice their SEC contract with the addition of OU and Texas. ESPN not only would like OU and Texas to be in the SEC earlier because if would give them 100% of those two media giants instead of sharing that with FOX, but also, apparently, ESPN can renegotiate the Long Horn Network when Texas joins the SEC. The current LHN contract expires in 2031 and ESPN would love to end that early as they are losing money on it. The B12 may be inspired to be less adamant about holding on to Texas and OU while they try to get ESPN to bid for its new TV contract. It usually isn't a good negotiating tactic to not give your network partner what it wants, when you want that partner to sign up for a new contract starting with 2025. Kind of how CBS refused to give the SEC more money for the SEC Game of the Week when the Aggies and Missouri joined the SEC. And then when the CBS contract came up for bid, oh well, goodbye CBS.
The ACC is doing all it can to help ESPN by holding on to its current contract that has 13 years left, well past all this drama. ESPN can focus on the Big Ten, the SEC, the LHN, etc. and ignore the ACC as we are "out of sight..out of mind" while all this is going on. Ok, that was too easy.
But nothing happens in a vacuum. The B12 can have a major impact on other conferences, depending how all this shakes out.
