Take One: Dramatic defensive turnaround
Through the first five games of the season, the Seminoles ranked all the way down at No. 94 in total defense and No. 105 in scoring defense. At the time, it was easily one of the worst statistical defenses in recent Florida State history. Then something changed -- FSU’s defense started making more stops, got more pressure on the quarterback, tackled better and even provided better coverage in the secondary.
Over the last five games, FSU’s defense has slowly chipped away at the ugly statistical numbers and is getting close to respectability. In the latest NCAA rankings for FBS teams, the ‘Noles are up to No. 47 in total defense and No. 56 in scoring defense. Those figures are nothing to brag about, but it’s a huge improvement over where things were just a month and a half ago.
Let’s compare FSU’s defense of the first five games to the last five:
Take Two: Is the defense improved, or is it the opposition?
Associated Press
As noted above, there’s no denying that FSU’s defense has made a dramatic improvement, at least statistically, since the early portion of the season. However, we all know that statistics don’t always tell the whole story.
While the defensive numbers are much better across the board, the level of competition has also been night and day since early in the season.
The first four FBS opponents FSU faced are ranked offensively as follows: Louisville – No. 1 total offense/No. 1 scoring offense; USF – No. 7 total offense/No. 10 scoring offense; Ole Miss – No. 30 total offense/No. 32 scoring offense; and UNC – No. 41 total offense/No. 44 scoring offense. That works out to an average of No. 20 in total offense and No. 22 in scoring offense.
In stark contrast, the last five FBS opponents rank offensively as follows: Miami – No. 57 total offense/No. 36 scoring offense; Wake Forest – No. 123 total offense/No. 118 scoring offense; Clemson - No. 15 total offense/No. 17 scoring offense; NC State – No. 54 total offense/No. 78 scoring offens; and Boston College -- No. 128 total offense/No. 124 scoring offense. That works out to an average of No. 75 in total offense and No. 75 in scoring offense.
Based on the remaining competition, Florida State’s defense should continue to post good numbers. Syracuse ranks No. 47 in total offense but is all the way down at No. 107 in scoring offense. Meanwhile, Florida again has a lousy offense, ranking No. 95 in total offense and No. 83 in scoring offense. Hypothetically, should FSU hold down its next two opponents to an average of around 250 yards of total offense, which is not out of the question given the competition, it could finish the regular season with a top-30 defense.
Take Three: Young receivers take over unit
Melina's Photography
Through the first half of the season, Jimbo Fisher relied heavily on his veteran receivers. In fact, the trio of junior Travis Rudolph and seniors Jesus Wilson and Kermit Whitfield accounted for 85 percent of the receiving yards turned in by the wideouts. That dramatically changed after the injury to Wilson.
Prior to the Clemson game, Auden Tate and Nyqwan Murray were an afterthought in FSU’s passing attack. Through the first seven games, the two sophomores combined for just 13 catches for 164 yards. In each of last three games, one of the two sophomores has been the leading receiver. During this same period, the dynamic duo combined for 27 catches for 445 yards. They have accounted for over 60 percent of the yards from the receivers in the games versus Clemson, N.C. State and Boston College.
I realize that Fisher is a sticker for his receivers knowing their assignments, running the correct routes and showing consistency at the position. However, the sudden emergence of two young players that barely saw the field before an injury forced them into action makes you wonder. Should FSU’s coaching staff give more playing time to some of the other talented young receivers?
With the injury to George Campbell, the two most likely candidates are freshman Keith Gavin and sophomore Da’Vante Phillips. In the case of Gavin, there was plenty of chatter over the summer that the former four-star standout from Wakulla (Fla.) was dominating the player-run passing sessions. Considering his impressive 6-foot-3, 225-pound frame, it seems like Gavin would be a perfect complement to some of the Seminoles’ smaller wideouts.
Take Four: Crazy weekend of upsets shakes up playoffs, ACC
For the first time since 1985, the No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 teams all lost on the same day. And to make things even more interesting, the No. 8- and No. 9-ranked teams, Texas A&M and Auburn, fell as well. All five teams that lost were heavy favorites, and two were expected to win by more than three touchdowns -- Michigan (24 points) and Clemson (22 points).
Clemson wasn’t the only ranked ACC member to suffer an upset loss over the weekend. It started on Thursday night when No. 17 North Carolina lost to a 4-6 Duke team. Then in what may have been an even bigger surprise, Georgia Tech, which was 2-4 in conference play, took down No. 14 Virginia Tech.
The upsets over the weekend guarantee a major shakeup in the rankings and will have a profound impact on which teams are in position to earn a berth to the four-team College Football Playoff. Alabama is the only major undefeated team in the running for the playoffs. The Crimson Tide could even lose a game and would still be a lock for the final four. But after that, it get really dicey since there are now five one-loss teams and even some two-loss teams that could be in the running.
Here’s my total guess at how the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will rank the top 10 teams on Tuesday night:
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Louisville
4. Michigan
5. Clemson
6. Wisconsin
7. Washington
8. Oklahoma
9. Penn State
10. Colorado
If I’m anywhere close on this, the committee will have an incredibly difficult decision when it comes to picking between Clemson and Louisville should both win out.
When comparing two teams in the same conference with the same record, head-to-head record and which team is the conference champion are supposed to weigh heavily. However, in this instance that shouldn’t be the deciding factor. Louisville’s lone setback was a tight contest on the road against a top-five opponent. On the other hand, Clemson lost at home to a 6-4 team that got blown out 51-28 to Miami the week before. And let’s be honest about Clemson -- If N.C. State’s kicker hits a chip shot field goal and the officials don’t make some incredibly questionable calls down the stretch against Florida State, the Tigers probably have three losses.
Hopefully the committee will look at the entire body of work and how the respective seasons have worked out when deciding which team should be ranked higher.
Take Five: Stat Wrap – Week 11
* After 11 weeks, Florida State ranks in the top 25 in the following categories: Turnover margin (18), red-zone offense (2), punt returns (8) and time of possession (10).
* In the not-so-good category, FSU ranks No. 76 in passing yard allowed, No. 109 in net punting, No. 118 in sacks allowed (3.2 per game), No. 122 in penalties per game (8.1) and No. 125 in penalty yards (76.3).
- Senior defensive end DeMarcus Walker is tied for No. 3 in the nation in sacks with 11.
- Sophomore cornerback Tarvarus McFadden is No. 1 in interceptions with seven.
- Junior tailback Dalvin Cook is No. 9 nationally in rushing with 1,242 yards (No. 3 among P5 schools). He is also needs just 19 more rushing yards to break Warrick Dunn’s career mark of 3,959.
