Tale of two halves
The comment "tale of two halves" was mentioned by both head coaches during their respective postgame press conferences Saturday. There's a good reason why this was the common catch-phrase from both Jimbo Fisher and Bobby Petrino -- Florida State went from being down at the half to winning by 20 points.
The Seminoles' dramatic turnaround was especially evident on offense. A group that managed just two field goals in five possessions in the first half went a perfect five-for-five scoring touchdowns on its first five drives in the second half. The late offensive explosion allowed FSU to turn a potential nail-biter into a ho-hum 20-point victory.
Here are the key stats that enabled FSU's offense to be incredibly efficient in the second half:
• Third-down conversions:
o First Half: 2-of-7 (28.6%)
o Second Half: 6-of-7 (85.7%)* Lone failed third-down attempt was on FSU's final possession with the backups in the game.
• Dalvin Cook rushing:
o First Half: 7 rushes for 28 yards (4 yards per carry)
o Second Half: 15 rushes for 135 yards (9 yards per carry)
• Yards per play:
o First Half: 4.5 yards per play
o Second Half: 9.5 yards per play
• Average starting field position:
o First Half: 22-yard line
o Second Half: 33.5-yard line
Time to rethink the Dime Rabbit?
With plenty of depth and a good mix of talent at defensive end, Florida State frequently employs what it calls a "Dime Rabbit" package in third-and-long situations. This package is designed to get the fastest defensive players on the field, including what are essentially four defensive ends at the line of scrimmage.
Through the first couple of games, the Dime Rabbit did exactly what it was designed to do -- get pressure on the quarterback and limit the offense's ability to convert third-and-long situations. Through the first two games, opposing offenses were able to convert just 5-of-30 third-down attempts overall (16.7 percent), and FSU's defense was perfect on third downs when it brought out the Dime Rabbit formation.
That has dramatically changed the past couple weeks.
The slide began in the second half against Miami. The Hurricanes were able to make the game close down the stretch thanks in large part to a 6-of-9 third-down conversion rate in the second half. Three of the six third-down pickups came on downs when Miami needed six or more yards.
That trend of struggling on third-down defense continued this past weekend against Louisville. The Cardinals were successful 9 of 15 times on third down, becoming the first team this season to convert over 50 percent in these situations against the Seminole defense. What is even more astounding is that seven of these conversions came on third-and-six or longer. The Dime Rabbit was almost always the formation used in these situations.
While it's easy to conclude that the unique formation is the cause of FSU's inability to stop offenses on third down, the truth is probably a bit more complicated. While it doesn't look like the defensive front is getting consistent pressure in these situations anymore, there has also been a major dropoff in defensive personnel the past two weeks.
Senior linebacker Terrance Smith has been out the last two games with an ankle injury. And even though he's technically been available the past two weeks, veteran safety Nate Andrews is obviously limited with his knee injury and hasn't seen much actual playing time since early in the Miami game. Making matters worse, Trey Marshall, FSU's starter at the "Star" position, missed most of the Miami game after being ejected for targeting and left the Louisville game with an injury. So for all intents and purposes, the defense has been without three key starters the past two weeks -- the same time period that the third-down defense has fallen off the map.
Soft early schedule playing into perception
I don't have to convince anybody reading this column that the national polls have been unfair to Florida State. Despite a perfect 6-0 record, the 'Noles have regularly been passed by teams that started out well below them in the preseason polls. Even after beating a pesky Louisville team by 20 points -- one that No. 6 Clemson defeated by just three points -- FSU still dropped a spot behind a team with one loss in the latest Coaches' Poll.
But this isn't another jab at the pollsters (even though they deserve it). Instead, the intent is to point out how awful FSU's schedule has been to date and how it's not going to get much better for a couple more weeks.
The combined record of FSU's first six opponents versus FBS competition is just 9-21. Only Miami, who is 3-2 against FBS teams, has a record of .500 or better.
It won't get better the next two weeks against Georgia Tech and Syracuse. The Yellow Jackets and Orange are currently a combined 3-8 versus FBS opponents.
So Florida State's first legitimate opponent, at least in the eyes of the pollsters and the playoff committee, will be against Clemson on Nov. 7. A potential victory over what could be an undefeated and top-five Clemson team would provide a much-needed boost for FSU's resume. Not that anybody needs a reason to cheer against the Hurricanes, but the 'Canes might be the only thing standing in the way of the Tigers making it to Nov. 7 undefeated -- Clemson plays at Miami this Saturday. The only other game on the Tigers' schedule between now and then is a matchup versus N.C. State, who's only FBS wins are against Troy, Southern Alabama and Old Dominion.
A win over Florida in the season finale could also provide FSU with a boost. The Gators' annual clash with Georgia on Oct. 31 will go a long way in determining how the 'Noles' in-state rivals are viewed by the national media and playoff committee by season's end.
A closer look at FSU's penalties
Despite Florida State racking up 41 points and 510 total yards, it was a very sloppy day for the offense. There were several breakdowns in protection, especially in the first half, but penalties were the most consistent problem throughout the game.
Eight of FSU's 10 penalties were charged against the offense. A whopping seven of these penalties were because of a "false start" by an offensive player. Two of the seven were on offensive tackle Roderick Johnson. The other five were on different players.
I don't have the penalty breakdown for every one of FSU's games, but it's a safe bet that this is a single-game high for the 'Noles when it comes to false starts during the Jimbo Fisher era.
Normally, Fisher is a stickler for details and oversees the offense with a firm grip. That's why what happened on Saturday is so unusual. When I spoke to Fisher during our normal Sunday night interview, he even seemed to be at a bit of a loss to explain why the offense was so off-kilter early Saturday afternoon.
"Guys were just jumping, you got me," Fisher joked, when asked about the false start penalties. "Guys hearing things, wanting to do too well, pressing themselves and they hadn't done that all week. There's no magic formula to it. It's a guy just being antsy, having clutter in his head wanting to do his job too quick and just jumped. I know people don't believe that, but that's about as simple as it gets."
Florida State by the numbers -- Golson, Whitfield and sacks
Last week, I listed Everett Golson's quarterback rating the last four games to demonstrate how it has continued to improve. He did it again this past weekend against what was considered a pretty good Louisville defense.
The senior signal-caller completed 26 of 38 passes for a season-high 372 yards and three touchdowns. And again, he didn't commit a single turnover. Those numbers work out to an impressive 176.7 passer rating. So here's a rundown of his QB rating the last five games.
Louisville - 176.7
Miami - 150.74
Wake Forest - 129.90
Boston College - 117.90
South Florida - 119.20
After racking up over 100 receiving yards in back-to-back games, Kermit Whitfield now leads FSU in both receptions (29) and receiving yards (397).
Entering 2015, nobody expected the speedy junior to have this kind of a season, and for good reason. In his first two seasons combined, the Orlando native had just 16 receptions for 234 yards. After sitting out spring practice with an injury, most felt that Whitfield would be passed on the depth chart by the younger, highly regarded wide receivers that were part of the 2014 and 2015 recruiting classes. Instead, he has solidified his role as a starter and has become the biggest threat in FSU's passing game.
With five sacks on Saturday, FSU is up to 15 on the season. That's just two away from last year's total of 17. With six regular-season games and the postseason remaining, there's little doubt that the defense will post a much higher number of sacks when the dust settles on 2015.
In case you are wondering, the Seminole defense racked up 35 sacks during its national championship run in 2013. At the current rate, were FSU to play in the ACC championship game and one bowl, or one playoff game, the projected total would be 35 sacks for 2015.
