New study shows vax and non-vax transmit the virus similarly.
- Thread starter AllNoles
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This is the text, apologies if it is not right to post here, but it was NOT behind a pay wall. This was all available for me when I clicked.
People inoculated against Covid-19 are just as likely to spread the delta variant of the virus to contacts in their household as those who haven’t had shots, according to new research.
In a yearlong study of 621 people in the U.K. with mild Covid-19, scientists found that their peak viral load was similar regardless of vaccination status, according to a paper published Thursday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases medical journal. The analysis also found that 25% of vaccinated household contacts still contracted the disease from an index case, while 38% of those who hadn’t had shots became infected.
The results go some way toward explaining why the delta variant is so infectious even in nations with successful vaccine rollouts, and why the unvaccinated can’t assume they are protected because others have had shots. Those who were inoculated cleared the virus more quickly and had milder cases, while unvaccinated household members were more likely to suffer from severe disease and hospitalization.
“Our findings show that vaccination alone is not enough to prevent people from being infected with the delta variant and spreading it in household settings,” said Ajit Lalvani, a professor of infectious diseases at Imperial College London who co-led the study. “The ongoing transmission we are seeing between vaccinated people makes it essential for unvaccinated people to get vaccinated to protect themselves.”
Vaccination was found to reduce household transmission of the alpha variant -- first discovered in the U.K. in late 2020 -- by between 40% and 50%, and infected vaccinated individuals had a lower viral load in the upper respiratory tract than those who hadn’t had shots. The delta variant has been the dominant strain globally for some time, however. The research also showed that immunity from full vaccination waned in as little as three months. The authors said there wasn’t enough data to advise on whether this should lead to a change in the U.K.’s booster policy, where third doses are currently being offered to older and more vulnerable people six months after their second shot.
Six months was an arbitrary time period chosen following early data from Israel on the effectiveness of boosters, but there is no reason to believe they would be less effective if given earlier, said Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London and investigator on the study, at a press briefing Thursday.
The booster program could help halt the virus, as extra shots or repeated infections tend to lead to longer immunological memory, potentially protecting people for up to a year, Lalvani said. More data are needed to confirm this, he said.
The authors didn’t analyze infections based on the type of vaccines people had received. Maria Zambon, head of influenza and respiratory virology at the U.K. Health Security Agency, noted that there are still more than 300 vaccines in development, and said it’s possible that future generations of shots may be better at preventing transmission.
People inoculated against Covid-19 are just as likely to spread the delta variant of the virus to contacts in their household as those who haven’t had shots, according to new research.
In a yearlong study of 621 people in the U.K. with mild Covid-19, scientists found that their peak viral load was similar regardless of vaccination status, according to a paper published Thursday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases medical journal. The analysis also found that 25% of vaccinated household contacts still contracted the disease from an index case, while 38% of those who hadn’t had shots became infected.
The results go some way toward explaining why the delta variant is so infectious even in nations with successful vaccine rollouts, and why the unvaccinated can’t assume they are protected because others have had shots. Those who were inoculated cleared the virus more quickly and had milder cases, while unvaccinated household members were more likely to suffer from severe disease and hospitalization.
“Our findings show that vaccination alone is not enough to prevent people from being infected with the delta variant and spreading it in household settings,” said Ajit Lalvani, a professor of infectious diseases at Imperial College London who co-led the study. “The ongoing transmission we are seeing between vaccinated people makes it essential for unvaccinated people to get vaccinated to protect themselves.”
Vaccination was found to reduce household transmission of the alpha variant -- first discovered in the U.K. in late 2020 -- by between 40% and 50%, and infected vaccinated individuals had a lower viral load in the upper respiratory tract than those who hadn’t had shots. The delta variant has been the dominant strain globally for some time, however. The research also showed that immunity from full vaccination waned in as little as three months. The authors said there wasn’t enough data to advise on whether this should lead to a change in the U.K.’s booster policy, where third doses are currently being offered to older and more vulnerable people six months after their second shot.
Six months was an arbitrary time period chosen following early data from Israel on the effectiveness of boosters, but there is no reason to believe they would be less effective if given earlier, said Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London and investigator on the study, at a press briefing Thursday.
The booster program could help halt the virus, as extra shots or repeated infections tend to lead to longer immunological memory, potentially protecting people for up to a year, Lalvani said. More data are needed to confirm this, he said.
The authors didn’t analyze infections based on the type of vaccines people had received. Maria Zambon, head of influenza and respiratory virology at the U.K. Health Security Agency, noted that there are still more than 300 vaccines in development, and said it’s possible that future generations of shots may be better at preventing transmission.
thanks. here's a separate study in the guardian along the same lines.
www.theguardian.com
Jabs do not reduce risk of passing Covid within household, study suggests
Research reveals fully vaccinated people are just as likely to pass virus on to others in their household
They might be keeping their heads down and hoping someone doesn’t point out that less than 18% of current UK COVID deaths are in the unvaccinated.
there is also a very troubling trend of death numbers doubling in the highest risk 60+ age groups for the vaccinated population that isn’t similarly occurring in the unvaccinated population. It’s very odd.
Dr Malone had his name and reputation drug through the mud. His predictions from almost a year ago now are spot on.
“Those who were inoculated cleared the virus more quickly and had milder cases, while unvaccinated household members were more likely to suffer from severe disease and hospitalization”
It was clear that vaxxed spread less vs unvaxxed in earlier strains. Other studies say it can help for Delta as well. Either way, unvaxxed suffer more and become a burden on our healthcare system. There is no reputable public health policy position that doesn’t support vaccinations. I think local municipalities and business can mandate if they like.
It was clear that vaxxed spread less vs unvaxxed in earlier strains. Other studies say it can help for Delta as well. Either way, unvaxxed suffer more and become a burden on our healthcare system. There is no reputable public health policy position that doesn’t support vaccinations. I think local municipalities and business can mandate if they like.
This is a British study. Only 18% of COVID deaths in the UK are in the unvaccinated.
the 82% burdening their system are vaccinated.
The problem I have with this is that if it doesn’t help prevent the spread, it is a treatment not a vaccination. There are plenty of other treatments out there that have shown effective that have existed for much longer than a single year and are proven safe.
My personal case was overcome with 3 days of mild symptoms and 4 days sitting around waiting to test negative.
I don’t need, nor do I want a treatment to help me pass covid. I should not be forced to take a vaccine.
Australia started seizing homes for unpaid covid fines. Think about that for a second. They took peoples homes because they did not want to comply with these ridiculous lockdowns.
This is untrue. They are called reinfections and they have been occurring.
imagine thinking that there is a 99% chance I don't poop myself. Now imagine that I will need everyone around me to wear diapers so that I don't poop myself.
see what I did there?
I have no idea how your post relates to what I posted:
buckeyenole said:
"The good news is that people with natural immunity from getting Covid and recovering from Covid don't get Covid again, and also don't spread Covid once they've recovered. Bad news for Pfizer/Moderna, JJ, good news if you've recovered from Covid."
I am against vaccine mandates. And I believe vaccines are unnecessary for people who have already gotten Covid and recovered from it.
How does your post relate to my post?
I'm hearing the rate of "reinfections" from people who GOT Covid, meaning a positive test and symptoms, not just a positive test for Covid, is EXTREMELY low. So low they are not sure they are really Covid "reinfections" at all.
I am also reading that people with natural immunity don't spread Covid, unlike vaccinated people.
On the other hand, LARGE NUMBERS of people who are vaccinated are having "breakthrough" infections. In some countries, a majority of new Covid cases are fully vaccinated people.
Yep. This is why the CDC/Fauci did the quick U-turn on masks for the vaccinated some months ago. They knew, but wouldn't say so, because they didn't want anything to depress the vaccination rate. They have withheld a LOT of data for a very long time to avoid depressing the vaccination rate.
Its basic math. In the older age groups; where hospitalization/death is concentrated vaccination rates are over 90% in both the UK and the USA. In the UK it is over 95% I believe. So, if your stats are right and only 82% if deaths are unvaccinated then the vaccination is doing its job.
Here is an article stating that research has shown a 32 times greater chance of death for unvaccinated compared to vaccinated. So, I doubt that 18% rate is correct:
COVID death risk 32 times higher for the unvaccinated, figures suggest
It comes as new data shows one in four older adults who test positive for COVID-19 are no longer following the rules for self-isolating, and separate analysis of figures shows which areas have the highest case rates.
Thanks for the contextIts basic math. In the older age groups; where hospitalization/death is concentrated vaccination rates are over 90% in both the UK and the USA. In the UK it is over 95% I believe. So, if your stats are right and only 82% if deaths are unvaccinated then the vaccination is doing its job.
Here is an article stating that research has shown a 32 times greater chance of death for unvaccinated compared to vaccinated. So, I doubt that 18% rate is correct:
COVID death risk 32 times higher for the unvaccinated, figures suggest
It comes as new data shows one in four older adults who test positive for COVID-19 are no longer following the rules for self-isolating, and separate analysis of figures shows which areas have the highest case rates.news.sky.com
This is not particularly new.thanks. here's a separate study in the guardian along the same lines.
Jabs do not reduce risk of passing Covid within household, study suggests
Research reveals fully vaccinated people are just as likely to pass virus on to others in their household
1. We know that most infections are occurring at home. Mask mandates are not going to touch these infections.
2. We know that the Delta variant produces quick and extremely high viral loads day 2-3 and that during this time they are infectious. This was found in both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.
3. We know that vaccinated people don't get as sick or hospitalized/die at anywhere near the same rate as unvaccinated.
4. This is logical as vaccination only means that your body will react quicker to the virus and is less likely to get overwhelmed with this high viral load. That is how all vaccinations work.
5. This study doesn't tell us anything about how sick people are getting.
6. It does tell us how contagious Delta variant is.
82% of COVID delta deaths in the UK are vaccinated. 18% are unvaccinated.
in every statistically relevant age group in the UK (those 30 and above since much like the US the case mortality rate is basically 0.0% for those <30) the case numbers per 100,000 are higher in the vaccinated than in the unvaccinated. twice as high in most cases.
where the important separation occurs is in the hospitalization and mortality rates in the highest risk age groups, those 50+. It's a decreasing number by increasing age group but it basically breaks down as:
50-59 - 5x higher for the unvaccinated
60-69 - 4x higher for the unvaccinated
70-79 - 3x higher for the unvaccinated
80+ - 2x higher for the unvaccinated
the most significant number of UK deaths are occurring in the 70+ age groups.
please attach UK data demonstrating this. Also background on testing cycles, testing numbers, are vaccinated folks getting tested at the same rate, etc. Not that I don't believe you, just haven't seen this.
England’s COVID-19 death rate is higher for the unvaccinated
A dramatic claim about the pandemic in the United Kingdom was made by Alex Berenson, a former New York Times reporter wh
www.politifact.com
Thanks.........................Found these two statements in the report.
At the bottom of the chart:
1 In the context of very high vaccine coverage in the population, even with a highly effective vaccine, it is expected that a large proportion of cases, hospitalisations and deaths would occur in vaccinated individuals, simply because a larger proportion of the population are vaccinated than unvaccinated and no vaccine is 100% effective. This is especially true because vaccination has been prioritised in individuals who are more susceptible or more at risk of severe disease. Individuals in risk groups may also be more at risk of hospitalisation or death due to non-COVID-19 causes, and thus may be hospitalised or die with COVID-19 rather than because of COVID-19.
1 Comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 infection. Vaccine effectiveness has been formally estimated from a number of different sources and is described on pages 4 to 7 in this report. The case rates in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are unadjusted crude rates that do not take into account underlying statistical biases in the data. There are likely to be systematic differences in who chooses to be tested and the COVID risk of people who are vaccinated. For example: • people who are fully vaccinated may be more health conscious and therefore more likely to get tested for COVID-19 • people who are fully vaccinated may engage in more social interactions because of their vaccination status, and therefore may have greater exposure to circulating COVID-19 infection • people who are unvaccinated may have had past COVID-19 infection prior to the 4-week reporting period in the tables above, thereby artificially reducing the COVID-19 case rate in this population group, and making comparisons between the 2 groups less valid 2 Case rates are calculated using NIMS - a database of named individuals from which the numerator and the denominator come from the same source and there is a record of each individuals vaccination status. Further details on the use of NIMS as the source of denominator data is presented on page 14 of this report.
i'm literally repeating the numbers that the UK government reports, as did politifact, who appears to have decided it is best to downplay at best, or misrepresent at worst, the UK's data. the Scottish numbers are no different since politifact decided to mention it is PHE only.England’s COVID-19 death rate is higher for the unvaccinated
A dramatic claim about the pandemic in the United Kingdom was made by Alex Berenson, a former New York Times reporter wh
if you pay attention to the UK weekly reports the percentage share of vaccinated covid deaths is increasing week over week which you would expect as the vaccination rate increases. i did make it abundantly clear in my post though that hospitalization and death rate per 100,000 is up to 5x higher in the unvaccinated in the highest risk age groups.
i agree. i also understand the the complexity of the counting. the part that i do find strange though is the dissimilar increase in rates of mortality between vaccinated and unvaccinated in the highest risk age groups.
this was the crux of my original post. i might expect the trends to be more similar?
| UK deaths | uncavvinated | fully vaccinated |
| 50-59 | 74 | 77 |
| 60-69 | 105 | 250 |
| 70-70 | 101 | 612 |
| 80+ | 143 | 1209 |
If I am understanding your question correctly, I think it is easily explained. Vaccines only work to amplify a bodies immune system response. For 70+, there are many whose immune system just is done. Amplifying it provides little increase in protection beyond a few weeks.
My fault. I misinterpreted yours as sarcastic fodder making fun of people with my point of view. I agree with you whole heartedly and was trying to respond with an equally sarcastic example of how a situation could be compared to the ridiculous vaccine mandates / stance of everyone needing to be vaccinated to protect the already vaccinated.
Guy is certainly right wing, but he just obtained CDC emails through FOIA regarding their changing the definition of “vaccine”
technofog.substack.com
CDC Emails: Our Definition of Vaccine is "Problematic"
CDC: Problematic Vaccine? No, Problematic Definition of Vaccine.
technofog.substack.com
No. Moreso the disparity in the increase. The unvaccinated increasing at 100% to 140% between age groups whereas the vaccinated increasing at in excess of 200% between Ge groups.
this has been consistent for weeks in the UK. I would expect them to be more closely aligned or possibly the trends flipped even?
Vaccinated elderly in the USA are now due for boosters. My in-laws were vaxxed in January but they haven’t gotten a booster. I think they’re sitting ducks. They’d be counted as fully vaxxed but I bet they could easily get a break through infection and die. I think we will see a lot of this in the next few months.
The infection rate is so low now, in most states, their risk is far less than it was throughout the Delta variant. Hopefully, this means we will not "see a lot of this in the next few months."
Also, Fauci said months ago that when Covid cases got as low as 10-20 per 100,000, we would be "free and clear." Cases are now 1-5 per 100,000 in most of the country, and we have vaccine mandates, people losing their jobs, and we're vaccinating 5-11 year old children who scarcely have any risk. Go figure.
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"Amplifying" the immune system response is not a good description of how vaccines work. A better description is that "vaccines give the body's immune system a head start in identifying and killing a virus if/when it appears. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...vid +vaccine +work:sem.b:p:RG:GM:gen:PTN:FY21
Here is what the data you're referencing indicates. Either:
1. The vaccine is highly ineffective at fighting Delta (as you inferred)
2. The vaccine makes 70+ individuals more susceptible to Covid infection or actually accelerates the infection
3. The vaccine itself is causing deaths in this age group
4. Some combination of the three factors listed above
All four of these are definitely possible.
Yet last night I saw ABC News telling me that “spikes” are afoot in 22 states, and that some hospitals are already being overrun with Covid patients, etc. Plus it is winter, people are back inside, and holiday gatherings are straight ahead. The report was delivered with great zeal and imposing inflections….think hurricane coverage.
I have read and heard so much conflicting information on this that I really pay very little attention to any of it.
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