North Korea

[ReliableOstrich]

I think it should be pretty easy to keep this from getting political.

Hearing this morning that NK is moving one or more ICBM towards a launchpad.

So what are the scenarios here? I'm not keen on nuclear wars or 10s or 100s of thousands of South Koreans or Japanese deaths.

Sanctions and diplomacy? China still doesn't seem keen on cutting of trade with NK.

 

[NDallasRuss]

While I'm certainly not a military strategist, it seems like continuing to ignore them would be the best way to assure that there's no war.

This is historically what they do, isn't it? They posture, talk a lot of trash, rattle their sabres, etc, then eventually the US throws them a bone and sends them humanitarian aid, lifts a couple of restrictions, then everything goes back to normal for a while.

 

[noleclone2]

While I'm certainly not a military strategist, it seems like continuing to ignore them would be the best way to assure that there's no war.

This is historically what they do, isn't it? They posture, talk a lot of trash, rattle their sabres, etc, then eventually the US throws them a bone and sends them humanitarian aid, lifts a couple of restrictions, then everything goes back to normal for a while.

It is, but now they have shown they have longer range missiles and actual nukes. Before goal was to stop it from getting this far. Biggest hope is China steps in and causes a change.

 

[ReliableOstrich]

In terms of motive it seems like Kim has two primary goals:
1) protect himself and NK (primarily himself) from invasion and overthrow
2) respect and a seat at the big boy table

Neither of these bothers me and I don't think he's the goofball nutjob some people portray him to be (sure he's a bit eccentric), but I think he's calculated what he's doing and acceptable responses to it.

 

[NDallasRuss]

...I don't think he's the goofball nutjob some people portray him to be (sure he's a bit eccentric), but I think he's calculated what he's doing and acceptable responses to it.

But he is executing people with anti-aircraft guns and mortars, which seems more than eccentric.

 

[FSUTribe76]

I'm definitely thinking about North Korea. See my post about EMP protection. I'm not worried really that this will lead to WW3, I don't think Russia OR China would go that far over North Korea. But I do worry about them being able to conduct an EMP attack which could have devastating results to our economy but also to your personal memories.

 

[nynole1]

While I'm certainly not a military strategist, it seems like continuing to ignore them would be the best way to assure that there's no war.

This is historically what they do, isn't it? They posture, talk a lot of trash, rattle their sabres, etc, then eventually the US throws them a bone and sends them humanitarian aid, lifts a couple of restrictions, then everything goes back to normal for a while.

I'm not sure what the alternative is, but I am tired of being extorted by trolls like this.

 

[Gonolz]

But he is executing people with anti-aircraft guns and mortars, which seems more than eccentric.

It's just kinda like that eccentric Uncle who likes to start the fire on a grill using half a tree and two gallons of gasoline. Sure, it's overkill, but you know there's going to be a fire.

 

[NDallasRuss]

I'm not sure what the alternative is, but I am tired of being extorted by trolls like this.

Seems like the alternative is the potential for conflict between us and China. Neither country wants that so it's easier to continue occasionally placating N Korea. The problem is that Kim knows he can get away with it, so he talks a lot of trash that he knows he couldn't if China didn't have his back.

 

[ZZ828]

At some point you would think China would want to do something themselves about this nut job. It does not benefit them to be in any type of armed conflict with the US. They have too much invested in this country to want to see our economy devastated. They have to know that even a failed missile attack would spell the end of any peaceful solution to this. The US and South Korea would unleash everything they have on North Korea, and China would still end up with the refugee crisis on their border. It really is in China's best interest to try and end this now. A good start would be for them to cut off all trade and aid to NK.

 

[ReliableOstrich]

The US and South Korea would unleash everything they have on North Korea, and China would still end up with the refugee crisis on their border.

The US and SK aren't releasing anything on NK unless we play on starting a global nuclear war. The refugee crisis would be the least of China's concerns.

 

[NDallasRuss]

At some point you would think China would want to do something themselves about this nut job. It does not benefit them to be in any type of armed conflict with the US. They have too much invested in this country to want to see our economy devastated. They have to know that even a failed missile attack would spell the end of any peaceful solution to this. The US and South Korea would unleash everything they have on North Korea, and China would still end up with the refugee crisis on their border. It really is in China's best interest to try and end this now. A good start would be for them to cut off all trade and aid to NK.

But they do benefit from keeping it right on the brink, where they can continue to do big business with us, and also they're the only country doing business with N Korea.

 

[ZZ828]

If NK is crazy enough to actually try to attack the US with a ICBM, whether it succeeded or not, do you really think the US would sit back and not respond? Zero chance of that happening. I think this is where China can step in and tell NK that they are on their own if you try something that crazy. If China really wants a stable Korean peninsula, then they are in the best position to apply the most pressure to make that happen.

 

[GoNolesTX]

The US and SK aren't releasing anything on NK unless we play on starting a global nuclear war. The refugee crisis would be the least of China's concerns.

Why am I picturing this if that happens?

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

I think this is where China can step in and tell NK that they are on their own if you try something that crazy.

China told NK that a week or two ago.

 

[LesClaypool]

My only comment is that this thread, while not a Fred Berry, really cramps the style of my, "North Korea Investment Question" thread, that I started first.

 

[ReliableOstrich]

If NK is crazy enough to actually try to attack the US with a ICBM, whether it succeeded or not, do you really think the US would sit back and not respond? Zero chance of that happening. I think this is where China can step in and tell NK that they are on their own if you try something that crazy. If China really wants a stable Korean peninsula, then they are in the best position to apply the most pressure to make that happen.

I don't think NK is crazy enough to fire an ICBM in our direction (though Guam maybe another matter).

But I'd agree that China is basically the foot on the clutch, balancing it to their whim. And frankly, there's nothing we can do about that except trust that they won't allow the situation to become life threatening. We (and China) just have to hope this doesn't blow up in their face also -- no pun intended :/

 

[ReliableOstrich]

My only comment is that this thread, while not a Fred Berry, really cramps the style of my, "North Korea Investment Question" thread, that I started first.

Sorry man, didn't want to hijack discussing investment decisions w/ the more macro / strategic scenarios.

 

[kc78]

All NK is going to do is launch a few missiles off into the sea as posture. He may be evil, he may be the worst thing to ever happen to the people of North Korea, but he doesn't seem insane, at least not at this point. I think his primary interest is in keeping his toys to play with, and self preservation. He knows that if he launches anything at someone that he's toast. The US, especially if China stays out of it, will wipe him out. If China does get involved, then we've just entered WWIII and it all goes to Hell. I don't think China or the US have any interest in WWIII.

So the safest thing seems to simply ignore him, let him throw his temper tantrum, and then let the adults continue doing the work. He's not actually going to do anything outside of NK unless he legitimately thinks someone is coming for him. At that point, all bets are off. I think the only group who can safely take him out without tons of death would be China if they deem him to be too dangerous and actually a threat to really start something. Then he'll just disappear one day and China will back another person to keep the place falling apart but on their side. China's sole interest in NK is simply not to have a country friendly with the US on their doorstep.

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

All NK is going to do is launch a few missiles off into the sea as posture. He may be evil, he may be the worst thing to ever happen to the people of North Korea, but he doesn't seem insane, at least not at this point. I think his primary interest is in keeping his toys to play with, and self preservation. He knows that if he launches anything at someone that he's toast. The US, especially if China stays out of it, will wipe him out. If China does get involved, then we've just entered WWIII and it all goes to Hell. I don't think China or the US have any interest in WWIII.

So the safest thing seems to simply ignore him, let him throw his temper tantrum, and then let the adults continue doing the work. He's not actually going to do anything outside of NK unless he legitimately thinks someone is coming for him. At that point, all bets are off. I think the only group who can safely take him out without tons of death would be China if they deem him to be too dangerous and actually a threat to really start something. Then he'll just disappear one day and China will back another person to keep the place falling apart but on their side. China's sole interest in NK is simply not to have a country friendly with the US on their doorstep.

Any chance he would sell the technology or a finished product to another country or terrorist group?

 

[FSUTribe76]

Any chance he would sell the technology or a finished product to another country or terrorist group?

Most likely terrorist groups, at least those that are a true splinter terrorist group and not a front for a malevolent state actor, would never have the ability to make their own. This is a pretty interesting article on the subject.

http://www.nci.org/k-m/makeab.htm

 

[kc78]

Any chance he would sell the technology or a finished product to another country or terrorist group?

That's a fair point. I'm less concerned with it going to another country, but I could see a true terrorist group wanting access to a nuclear warhead. I'll admit to being ignorant of how easily a transaction like that can occur or how easily a terrorist group could actually utilize that. I mean we're talking about a nuclear warhead and rocket, not the easiest thing to transfer I'd assume.

I think our biggest nuclear threats to the future of terrorists would be with smaller, suitcase sized dirty bombs.

 

[ReliableOstrich]

Any chance he would sell the technology or a finished product to another country or terrorist group?

I don't think they'd be opposed to exporting their tech to an established nation, like Iran. But they don't strike me as a country that, after decades of struggling to sit at the adults table, would start selling seats to it on the cheap -- meaning I don't think they'd sell to non-state / unstable parties.

 

[FSUTribe76]

That's a fair point. I'm less concerned with it going to another country, but I could see a true terrorist group wanting access to a nuclear warhead. I'll admit to being ignorant of how easily a transaction like that can occur or how easily a terrorist group could actually utilize that. I mean we're talking about a nuclear warhead and rocket, not the easiest thing to transfer I'd assume.

I think our biggest nuclear threats to the future of terrorists would be with smaller, suitcase sized dirty bombs.

Yeah as the article I posted shows I doubt a terrorist group could have the wherewithal to build a real nuke even with Best Korea's help. It's actually pretty hard to build.

But they could steal or buy one of the Russian "backpack" nukes with about 3 kilo tons of power. Behind them. Those were pretty prolific and the USER didn't exactly keep a good track record of their whereabouts. As a matter of fact they allegedly lost track of 84 of their smaller nukes.

http://www.agreenroadjournal.com/2014/10/84-missing-russian-suitcase-nuke-bombs.html?m=1

According to Nukemaps one of those backpack nukes set off in Tally would kill over 8,000 and severely radioactively burn another 10k.

http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

 

[seminole97]

He's not going to give up the nukes.
Qaddafi gave up his WMD and the West rolled him a few years later anyway. So there is really no reason Kim would trust any Western guarantees on sovereignty.

Best course of action for the US would be that suggested by a recent presidential candidate - pack up and go home.
SK has something like twice the populace and 40x the economy of Best Korea.
All of Best Korea's neighbors have more economic might and population.
Can someone explain why this is our concern?
From my perspective we have a lot more pressing things to deal with, and Stalinism on the Korean Peninsula is way, way down the list.
Force Kim to come up with a new act when US troops aren't actually there anymore.

 

[kc78]

He's not going to give up the nukes.
Qaddafi gave up his WMD and the West rolled him a few years later anyway. So there is really no reason Kim would trust any Western guarantees on sovereignty.

Best course of action for the US would be that suggested by a recent presidential candidate - pack up and go home.
SK has something like twice the populace and 40x the economy of Best Korea.
All of Best Korea's neighbors have more economic might and population.
Can someone explain why this is our concern?
From my perspective we have a lot more pressing things to deal with, and Stalinism on the Korean Peninsula is way, way down the list.
Force Kim to come up with a new act when US troops aren't actually there anymore.

I don't disagree with you, however it's not NK we've ever been worried with. Our military forces in South Korea are simply to keep our military close to China, which is why China allows these idiots to essentially do what they want. They don't want NK refugees flooding in, and they don't want a Pro-US Government sitting on their border. NK makes a nice DMZ between the US and China.

 

[seminole97]

I don't disagree with you, however it's not NK we've ever been worried with. Our military forces in South Korea are simply to keep our military close to China

Oh, well in that case... wait. So what!

Borrowing a trillion dollars from China so we can afford the guns and butter to park tens of thousands of troops in Korea to keep our military 'close' to China strikes me as an even more absurd justification.

 

[kc78]

Oh, well in that case... wait. So what!

Borrowing a trillion dollars from China so we can afford the guns and butter to park tens of thousands of troops in Korea to keep our military 'close' to China strikes me as an even more absurd justification.

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I don't disagree with you. I'm simply giving you the "Military Justification".

 

[seminole97]

I don't disagree with you. I'm simply giving you the "Military Justification".

Please understand my consternation with the situation isn't aimed at you.
I just don't see the logic of the 'military justification'.
Feels to me like a lot of what we do, regarding global military outposts, has more to do with habit and inertia than meeting any needs of the Republic.

 

[kc78]

Please understand my consternation with the situation isn't aimed at you.
I just don't see the logic of the 'military justification'.
Feels to me like a lot of what we do, regarding global military outposts, has more to do with habit and inertia than meeting any needs of the Republic.

Sure. I agree still. We overspend on our military by a great deal. I'd love to see us slowly close down a number of our bases and bring those troops and family back home. From an economic situation, you can't just drop that many people back in the US with needed jobs, but if you begin a ten year plan or so, it can easily be done.

 

[noleville]

I think this is a BRILLANT point of view..

 

[RangerNole]

This thread is really enlightening on how people view things and try to interrupt foreign leader; not to mention the why/how the US does things.

 

[kc78]

View embedded media

I think this is a BRILLANT point of view..

Agree with that. The time to have intervened militarily was before he developed nuclear weapons. Although doing so would still have resulted in hundreds of thousands of people dying in South Korea from traditional artillery and risking a war with China.

At this point, I think your best choice is to simply ignore him and simply make certain our allies know that if he ever does cross the line, we wipe him out at that point. Outside of convincing China to take him out and install their own puppet Government, there's really no other legitimate choice.

 

[noleville]

Agree with that. The time to have intervened militarily was before he developed nuclear weapons. Although doing so would still have resulted in hundreds of thousands of people dying in South Korea from traditional artillery and risking a war with China.

At this point, I think your best choice is to simply ignore him and simply make certain our allies know that if he ever does cross the line, we wipe him out at that point. Outside of convincing China to take him out and install their own puppet Government, there's really no other legitimate choice.

I agree but he's poking a bear in Japan. I think the u.S. is taking the lid off the pot for now but if Kim fires another missile over Japanese air space things will get ugly Japan is still Japan, it won't take a whole hell of a lot to get them into crushing stage, Kim is really pushing things.

 

[ReliableOstrich]

I agree but he's poking a bear in Japan. I think the u.S. is taking the lid off the pot for now but if Kim fires another missile over Japanese air space things will get ugly Japan is still Japan, it won't take a whole hell of a lot to get them into crushing stage, Kim is really pushing things.

What's Japan going to do? If they attack NK, NK comes back with a nuke.
Japan has no cards to play militarily.

 

[seminole97]

What's Japan going to do? If they attack NK, NK comes back with a nuke.
Japan has no cards to play militarily.

Link

"...Japan is happy to let neighbors like China and North Korea believe it is part of the nuclear club, because it has a “bomb in the basement” -– the material and the means to produce nuclear weapons within six months..."

Let's give Kim what he wants and leave. What's the downside? My understanding is they already shut down the juicy girl bars.

 

[dero316]

 

[FSUTribe76]

 

[ReliableOstrich]

Link

"...Japan is happy to let neighbors like China and North Korea believe it is part of the nuclear club, because it has a “bomb in the basement” -– the material and the means to produce nuclear weapons within six months..."

Let's give Kim what he wants and leave. What's the downside? My understanding is they already shut down the juicy girl bars.

Are you suggesting Japan's move would be to nuke NK and then get nuked in return?

 

[seminole97]

Are you suggesting Japan's move would be to nuke NK and then get nuked in return?

I'm suggesting Japan is not weak. They have material stored at home and around the world to make about 5000 nuclear weapons.
I'm suggesting Kim isn't really our problem.