I see a ton of threads and comments about our current ranking, our comparable strength of schedule, the perception of our value, etc etc. First of all, it's irrelevant. The only games that matter for us are yet to come. If we lose either, we are 1000% OUT. Like most believe, if we win out, we are likely in. HOWEVER, because certain teams we thought would be good, have turned out to suck (i.e. GA Tech) style points DEFINITELY matter for us. If you haven't realized this yet, below is a list of game outcomes in the order of the weight assigned to / credit granted for each by the media, voters, and playoff selection committee. They wouldn't admit this, but it's completely obvious. I've actually spoken with folks who've been in informative meetings in Dallas with the committee where they essentially affirmed they follow (loosely) an undefined/unsubstantiated but tiered approach like this:
- Decisive (17+ points) win over top tier (say top 15) opponent
- Any win vs a top tier opponent
- Close loss to top tier opponent
- Blowout win vs any opponent
- Any loss to top tier opponent
- Unimpressive win vs any opponent
- Loss to any opponent
- This methodology should only come into play when comparing teams with the exact same record. For example - if we run the table beating a top 5 Clemson and top 20 UF and finish undefeated, there's absolutely no way one could justify to me that any one loss team deserves to go ahead of us. On the other hand, if we're one of two teams battling for a spot and we both have one loss, but the other team ends up beating 5 other ranked teams, they should go ahead of us.
- Wins are tough to come by in today's college football game. All the coaches will say how tough it is to win them all and go undefeated. If that's the case, I don't think a loss should ever be assigned more value than a win. If you go undefeated in a power 5 conference, a one loss team shouldn't unseat you.
- It's evident they consider the ranking / status of the opponent at the point in time the game took place versus the team's current ranking / status. I can see both sides of this argument, and I think there should be a formula that takes both into account. For example - think of Notre Dame last year or Miami in 2013. Both were highly ranked and undefeated when we beat them. One could argue, losing those games to us derailed their seasons and began a downward spiral of losses that may not have occurred had they beat us. In reality, who knows, but regardless, that shouldn't discredit our win against in what was a HUGE game at the time.
- Decisive win over top tier opponent in FINAL rankings
- Any win vs top tier opponent in FINAL rankings
- Decisive win over top tier opponent at the time game was played
- Any win vs top tier opponent at the time the game was played
- Blowout win vs any opponent
- Unimpressive win vs any opponent
- Close loss to FINAL ranked top tier opponent
- Any loss to FINAL ranked top tier opponent
- Loss to any opponent
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