Who was closer to the actual retail price IYO?

[DanC78]

This is completely random. But curious to get your opinion.

Had a conversation with a buddy about Tyndall getting the F22’s out of there prior to the storm. We talked about how bad it would have been if we had lost them.

One person mentioned how they cost up to a billion dollars. The other scoffed at that number and said more like 15 million.

We googled and we were both WAY off, they average 350M.

My question is the person who said 15M said he was MUCH closer to the actual number and was therefore more correct.

The person who said a billion understood the math does say that 15M is closer, but common sense says 1B was the better assumption.

So again, this is a completely random question...but in your opinion, who had the better guess, the guy who said 15M, or the guy who said 1B?

 

[RunRonnieRun]

There’s no opinion to be had here. One person was off by $335MM, one person was off by $650MM.

#math

 

[PoopandBoogers]

Too early to do the math, but I wonder who was closer % wise. This sounds like a brain teaser in an adult ed intro math class.

Break it down into dollars it would be
$15 vs $350 or
$350 vs $1k

 

[RunRonnieRun]

Too early to do the math, but I wonder who was closer % wise. This sounds like a brain teaser in an adult ed intro math class.

Break it down into dollars it would be
$15 vs $350 or
$350 vs $1k

Fair point.

 

[DanC78]

Too early to do the math, but I wonder who was closer % wise. This sounds like a brain teaser in an adult ed intro math class.

Break it down into dollars it would be
$15 vs $350 or
$350 vs $1k

Great point!

1B dollar guy was 65% off
15M dollar guy was 98% off.

Case closed

 

[PoopandBoogers]

Fair point.

More intriguing question is if this conversation actually took place or did Dan pull this off the facebook page of some chick that spends the rest of her day shilling rodan and fields or body wraps.

 

[PoopandBoogers]

Great point!

1B dollar guy was 65% off
15M dollar guy was 98% off.

Case closed

If this turns into some viral yanny/laurel or blue vs gold dress I want some mfn credit!

 

[DanC78]

More intriguing question is if this conversation actually took place or did Dan pull this off the facebook page of some chick that spends the rest of her day shilling rodan and fields or body wraps.

Once again...I’m not sure which would be the better answer in this scenario.

But truth be told, it was a real convo over dinner, and I was the 1B dollar guy. I knew that number was high, but when my buddy said 15M I immediately knew his guess was more ridiculous.

He will never say his guess was more ridiculous, and I will hold strong to my guess. Thanks to Poop I at least have a little ammo from a math standpoint as to why.

 

[62Nole]

The real question should be------ How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?

 

[csklad]

You could also use TPIR rules and say if you go over, you lose. The 15M guess is the equivalent of “$1, bob/drew”!

 

[DanC78]

You could also use TPIR rules and say if you go over, you lose.

After poop solved the case I immediately thought about TPIR rules and wrong they are doing it.

 

[cfbfan23]

Both were horrible guesses. I think we can all agree on that. This is arguing over turds.

 

[ATLNole1]

If you go over the price you lose. The lower guess wins.

 

[FSUdawg]

$15M guess was closer.
$15M guess was more ridiculous.

Either way, both numbers were terrible guesses, so both lose.

 

[PoopandBoogers]

If you go over the price you lose. The lower guess wins.

Never understood the logic in that. I prefer the closest to the pin rule.

 

[kc78]

I'd say that legally, the 15 million dollar guess was closer dollar wise, but an idiotic guess showing no understanding of the price we spend on these planes.

1 billion was way over, but a more logically defensable position.

 

[SeaPA]

Never understood the logic in that. I prefer the closest to the pin rule.

Agreed. It's essentially the same as saying that your shot that stopped 30 feet short of the hole is better than mine that is a foot past the hole.

 

[Nole Lou]

Great point!

1B dollar guy was 65% off
15M dollar guy was 98% off.

Case closed

My take as well.

To do it by raw numbers would basically say that if I guessed it cost ten cents I would be more accurate than the guy who guessed 1 billion.

 

[cfbfan23]

I like the golf analogies.

Assume $3MM = 1 yard.

Dan and his friend are judging distance and choosing what club to hit their target. The buddy chooses a putter and Dan busts out his driver. Friend hits it 5 yds. Dan crushes a 330+ yd. drive. Unfortunately, the hole was only about 120 yds. away. The correct club was probably a wedge.

Neither is a winner. It can be argued that each is a bigger loser than the other. Either way, if this type of judgement is continued, they're looking at a 7+ hour round and Dan is probably going to lose a ton of golf balls.

 

[funksouljon]

Never understood the logic in that. I prefer the closest to the pin rule.

Because Bob Barker said so.

And don't forget to spay and neuter your pets.

 

[GoNolesTX]

See what happens when you start letting posters back in? Their inundation of thread culture leads to Dan having silly conversations over dinner. Then Dan gets a little self-conscience and gets us doing math first thing in the morning.

Maybe we don't need lurker.

 

[funksouljon]

See what happens when you start letting posters back in? Their inundation of thread culture leads to Dan having silly conversations over dinner. Then Dan gets a little self-conscience and gets us doing math first thing in the morning.

Maybe we don't need lurker.

Maybe Dan has these conversations all the time. And because lurker has started to show all these little silly questions are out there, Dan is more willing to share some of his earth shattering dinner discussions. And willing to expose himself as CLEARLY being more wrong.

 

[ReliableOstrich]

Great point!

1B dollar guy was 65% off
15M dollar guy was 98% off.

Case closed

This is the way I see it.

$1b guy knows it is crazy pricey, just not how much
$15m guy thinks an F22 is 4x cheaper than a G6 ($60m). This is like saying a Ferrari is cheaper than a Honda Accord.

 

[Gonolz]

Is that actual price or does it include overhead? Anytime you factor in overhead in military spending it becomes a multiple of actual cost, e.g. a $600 hammer.

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

Is that actual price or does it include overhead? Anytime you factor in overhead in military spending it becomes a multiple of actual cost, e.g. a $600 hammer.

This
The $339m figure is the total program cost divided by number of planes produced. The flyaway cost (actual cost of production of each plane) is $150m per Wiki.

 

[dmm5157]

This
The $339m figure is the total program cost divided by number of planes produced. The flyaway cost (actual cost of production of each plane) is $150m per Wiki.

I see B2's cost over $2 billion. So is the $1 billion really a worse guess than $15 million. $350 million is closer to $0, but guessing $0 would have been just as silly.

Case in point ,I just asked my wife how much she thought an F22 cost and she said $1 million dollars a and she'd be closer than the billion guess but also completely more wrong than the billion dollar guess IMO.


When we do cost estimates for a client, we always start with rough order of magnitude estimates based on past projects. The goal is to give the customer a budget and an idea of what to expect.

If the guy who guessed $1 billion, he'd have only been off by 2.8 times the actual price. Not great, but...

The $15 million guess was 23 times off. That's one whole order of magnitude difference.

The one who guessed $15 million would get fired.
I just saw this happen with a competing firm that estimated a project would cost $40 million that ended up costing $90 million. Being low and not allowing clients to secure proper financing is a "you're fired" moment.

 

[wbnolefan2]

The rims and speakers alone prolly cost 15mil. I vote billion dollar guy wins

 

[ericram]

Based on my Price is Right training, I would have bid $1 less then the lowest bid and won your silly game.

 

[seminole97]

The rims and speakers alone prolly cost 15mil. I vote billion dollar guy wins

And the oxygen generator doesn't even come with the standard trim line, it's a mandatory upgrade.

 

[seminole97]

Neither is a winner. It can be argued that each is a bigger loser than the other.

It cannot be argued the taxpayer is the biggest loser of all in this game.

 

[funksouljon]

It cannot be argued the taxpayer is the biggest loser of all in this game.

Usually are, thats why I decided to stop paying taxes. Can lose if you don't play the game.

 

[seminole97]

Usually are, thats why I decided to stop paying taxes. Can lose if you don't play the game.

That's what I learned from Wargames too!

In a related note it was reported that 33 of the 55 F-22s stationed at Tyndall were flown elsewhere before the storm hit. Last I read the fleet had about a 49% readiness rate (worst airframe in the services), but it looks like Tyndall could boast closer to 60%
Aim High!

 

[F4Gary]

That's what I learned from Wargames too!

In a related note it was reported that 33 of the 55 F-22s stationed at Tyndall were flown elsewhere before the storm hit. Last I read the fleet had about a 49% readiness rate (worst airframe in the services), but it looks like Tyndall could boast closer to 60%
Aim High!

Not true.
"But most of Tyndall's 50 high-tech F-22 fighter jets -- a fleet collectively worth about $7 billion -- were largely untouched by the devastating winds and rain, as the base's soldiers and airmen were able to evacuate roughly 50 advanced F-22 stealth jets ahead of Hurricane Michael making landfall.

However, at least three F-22s were damaged, as well as other training jets. Not all the jets were able to fly and some were left behind, officials told Fox News.

A majority of the base’s aircraft were moved to the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio and the Fort Worth Alliance Airport in Texas earlier in the week, officials said. Non-essential military personnel and civilians were also ordered to evacuate before the storm hit."

https://www.foxnews.com/us/hurrican...fighter-jets-spared-thanks-to-evacuation-plan

 

[seminole97]

Not true.
"But most of Tyndall's 50 high-tech F-22 fighter jets -- a fleet collectively worth about $7 billion -- were largely untouched by the devastating winds and rain, as the base's soldiers and airmen were able to evacuate roughly 50 advanced F-22 stealth jets ahead of Hurricane Michael making landfall.

However, at least three F-22s were damaged, as well as other training jets.

I had to look just ensure I hadn’t misread and instead it looks like a game of telephone between papers.
NYT reported:
“Tyndall is home to 55 F-22 stealth fighters, which cost a dizzying $339 million each. Before the storm, the Air Force sent at least 33 of the fighters to Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio.

Air Force officials have not disclosed the whereabouts of the remaining 22 planes, other than to say that a number of aircraft were left at the base because of maintenance or safety reasons.”

After that outlets from here to Australia reported the remainder as grounded.
Looks like they mostly were sent to Texas, which is great news.

Base Commander at Tyndall said that 100% of base housing is uninhabitable.
Going to be a lot of construction work available in the panhandle.
My guess is this accelerates the Destinization of that stretch of beach as people that inherited grandmas place aren’t going be able to afford to build to code.