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Why It Seems Everything We Knew About the Global Economy Is No Longer True
- Thread starter surfnole
- Start date
Thinking economics solves everything has always been a flawed concept.
For the last 10 years or so, the US has started to reimagine globalization. No longer would our Navy bear the burden of protecting the worlds trade routes over water. This is on the back of collapsing demographics. Much of Europe, China, Russia, South Korea, Japan, et al. are too far down the demographic collapse/low fertility trend to recover. Labor costs, once stupidly cheap in much of the world has increased to the point that transportation costs made shipping no less expensive than manufacturing regionally. The Pandemic just made it all go faster. The North America region plus a few South America resource rich countries will emerge as the most powerful group and will leave the other regions in the dust. We still have a fertility issue (1.7), but we have a demographic structure combined with Mexico that is salvageable.
Some folks haven't quite adjusted to thinking about the future in this way: ie demographically, fertility rates, regionally.
Birth rates or immigration. Gotta have productive folks. 2.1 was always the number.
Yes. We have, only in the last generation, gone below 2.1. And after a future 10 year hiatus of smaller amounts of under 18, we should be OK as long as we have a generous legal immigration system. We need to reverse the amount of women not having children (that is the biggest change that caused the 1.7), but IMO we will be surprised about the latest generation in a variety of ways.
