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Written Preview: FSU vs NC State

OsceolaPat

Ultimate Seminole Insider
Staff
Jul 31, 2022
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Florida State (4-1, 2-1 ACC) will travel to take on No. 14 NC State (4-1, 0-1) on Saturday at 8 p.m. (ACC Network). The Seminoles are a three-point underdog heading into the game. NC State has won four of the last five games vs. FSU and has a 13-game home winning streak. Mike Monaco will handle play-by-play duties and will be joined in the booth by analyst Tim Hasselbeck and Kelsey Riggs on the sidelines. The weather forecast for Saturday night calls for clear skies with temperatures in the mid-60s at kickoff and dipping into the mid-50s by the end of the game.

NC State schedule, results, national rankings​

NC State 21 @ ECU 20
NC State 55 Charleston Southern 3
NC State 41 UConn 10
NC State 20 @ Clemson 30
Combined record of NC State's FBS Opponents to-date: 13-8

Wolfpack By the numbers (FBS Rank/Per Game Average)

Offensive Numbers:

Rushing Offense - 94th at 132.8 YPG
Passing Offense - 57th at 251.8 YPG
Total Offense - 82nd at 384.6 YPG
Scoring Offense - 56 at 32.8 PPG
Sacks Allowed - 50th at 1.6 PG
TFL's Allowed - 46th at 4.8 PG
Defensive Numbers:
Rushing Defense - 16th at 94.4 YPG
Passing Defense - 28th at 185.6 YPG
Total Defense - 15th at 280 YPG
Scoring Defense - 19th at 15.4 PPG
Sacks Made - 102nd at 1.4 PG
TFLs Made - 52nd at 6 PG

NC State coaches​

Dave Doeren is in his 10th season leading NC State, where he has compiled a 68-50. Doeren has an overall record of 91-54 in his 12 years as a head coach, including his two years, 2011 and 2012, at Bowling Green. His record against FSU is 4-5. Doeren is the second winningest coach in NC State history.

Tim Beck has been the offensive coordinator for NC State since 2020 and is also the team's quarterbacks coach. He held the same roles at Texas (2017-19), Ohio State (2015-16) and Nebraska (2011-14). His other stops at the college level include Kansas, Missouri State, Illinois State and Kansas State. Beck, who played at UCF, started his coaching career at Miramar (Fla.) High School as an assistant coach in 1988.

Tony Gibson is in his fourth season as Doeren's defensive coordinator. He also serves as the team's linebackers coach. Last season Gibson was a nominee for the Broyles Award. Prior stops at the college level for Gibson include West Virginia (2001-07 and again from 2013-18), Arizona (2012), Pitt (2011), Michigan (2008-10), West Virginia Tech (1999-2000) and Glenville State (1996).


As the numbers indicate NC State has been pretty pedestrian on offense so far this season. They haven't been able to run the ball effectively, which has resulted in not being able to find many big plays in the passing game with redshirt junior quarterback Devin Leary.

The Wolfpack are averaging just 111.7 ypg game on the ground against its FBS foes, which ranks just 101st when you factor out FCS opponents. The issues running the ball haven't helped the passing game, where Leary and the Wolfpack have produced just 10 pass plays against FBS competition of over 20 yards and just three pass plays of over 30 yards. In all they have completed just 17 passes of over 20 yards.

Where Leary (6-2, 210) and NC State have been very efficient and productive is the intermediate passing game (10-19 yards) and where the Wolfpack have completed 40 passes this season. Through five games Leary has thrown for 1,135 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions while completing 62.8 percent of its passes. The Wolfpack have thrown the ball 53 percent of the time.

NC State has been very good at two things offensively this season. The Wolfpack rank 36th in the country vs. FBS competition in third-down conversion rate (43.8%). And one of the reasons for that is the offensive line is keeping Leary's uniform clean. Wolfpack quarterbacks have been sacked just seven sacks (according to NC State's stats) and allowed just 16 pressures, according to PFF stats.

There are a lot of new faces at the skill positions for NC State. Sophomore running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (6-0, 210) leads the team in rushing attempts (44) and rushing yards (265). He averages 6 yards per carry. He also has four catches for 93 yards out of the backfield. Junior Jordan Houston (5-10, 192) has taken a bigger role in the backfield. He has already run the ball 40 times for 170 yards this year after only getting 20 carries all of last year. Houston also has five catches for 47 yards this season.

Leary's main target this season is senior wide receiver Thayer Thomas (6-0, 195), who leads the team in catches (24) and receiving yards (301). Thayer has been targeted 20 percent of the time by NC State quarterbacks this season, which is impressive given that the Wolfpack have thrown the ball to over 20 players this season according to PFF stats. His 22 career touchdown catches rank second in NC State history, his 182 career receptions rank fifth all-time and is 2,143 receiving yards eighth.

Junior Devin Carter (6-3, 215) is second on the team with 171 yards receiving and has been Leary's second favorite target this year. His 12 receptions rank third on the team. Junior Keyshon Lesane has been targeted third most for the Wolfpack and is second on the team with 15 receptions but has accumulated just 119 yards.

Sophomore Chris Toudle (6-4, 240) and redshirt freshman (6-4, 245) Cedd Seabrough have taken over the H-back/tight end role in place of junior Trent Pennix (6-3, 230), who was hurt in the ECU game and whose status is unknown for Saturday night. Toudle has seven catches for 65 yards, while Seabrough has been used primarily as a blocker having been targeted one time all season.

The NC State offensive line is a mix of experience and youth. The starting five have combined for 83 career starts but 66 of those have come from two veterans. Senior center Grant Gibson (6-1, 310) and redshirt sophomore Dylan McMahon (6-4, 300) have 41 and 25 career starts, respectively. Senior right tackle Timothy McKay (6-4, 315) has just two career starts and the left side, consisting of redshirt sophomore tackle Anthony Belton (6-6, 330) and senior Chandler Zavala (6-5, 325), have just 15 combined career starts.


The Wolfpack defense, both statistically and based off tape, will be the toughest unit FSU has gone up against all season. It will also match an FSU offense that has thrived off big plays against Gibson's base 3-3-5 defense that doesn't allow many big plays.

Against FBS competition, the Florida State offense ranks 42nd in run and pass plays over 10 yards (64). As greedy at the Seminoles offense has been in utilizing chunk plays the NC State defense has been just as stingy. NC State ranks 61st in giving up plays from scrimmage of over 10 yards vs. FBS foes (55), but ranks 26th in giving up plays of 20 yards or more (14) and 18th in giving up plays of more than 30 yards (5). Against FBS competition FSU's offense ranks seventh in pass plays over 20 yards (23) while NC State has allowed just 11 pass plays of 20 yards or more, which ranks 20th.

NC State has also been really solid if not spectacular with its third-down defense even without the benefit of a great pass rush. They only have seven sacks through five games but according to PFF stats have totaled 57 QB pressures. FBS opponents have converted just 34.7 percent of their third-down chances. This is another strength vs. strength situation with FSU being the 21st-best offense in the country vs. FBS competition in converting on 3rd-down at a clip of 48.1-percent.

The Wolfpack are aggressive on defense and will bring pressure in the form of run or pass stunts and blitzes from all three levels. They have three players, linebacker Drake Thomas, safety Tanner Ingle and defensive end Davin Vann, who are all tied for the team lead in quarterback pressures with four.

Vann (6-2, 295) is a sophomore who has 11 tackles on the season, including two TFL's and one sack. Savion Jackson (6-2, 290) lines up opposite Vann, where he has 14 tackles, including three TFLs. Former FSU defensive tackle Cory Durden, a senior, is listed as co-starter at nose tackle and has made eight stops so far this season. Redshirt sophomore CJ Clark (6-3, 300) splits time with Vann at defensive end and leads the team with two sacks.

NC State has arguable the best group of linebackers in the ACC if not one of the best in all of college football. And they make plays all over the field. Senior middle linebacker Isaiah Moore (6-2, 230) has 21 tackles through five games and leads the team with five TFLs and has also been credited with three QB pressures. Junior strongside linebacker Drake Thomas (6-0, 230) leads the team with 32 tackles in addition to leading the team in QB pressures. Redshirt junior Payton Wilson (6-4, 240) is third on the team with 24 stops, including two TFLs.

Ingle (5-10, 196) is a senior and the leader of the secondary. He is also second on the team with 24 tackles and second on the team with four TFLs. Another former FSU player starts at strong safety in senior Cyrus Fagan (6-1, 197), who has 21 tackles to his credit. Senior Derek Pitts (6-1, 193), sophomore Aydan White (6-0, 185) and sophomore Shyheim Battle (6-2, 195) are all considered co-starters at cornerback. Pitts has 23 tackles on the season, while White leads the team with five pass breakups and two interceptions. Senior nickelback Tyler Baker Williams (6-0, 205) is also tied for the team lead with two interceptions.

NC State on special teams​

Senior Chris Dunn will handle the place-kicking duties and senior Shane McDonough will be the punter. Dunn has made all seven of his attempts this season including five field goals between 40 and 49 yards. McDonough is averaging 41.3 yards on 20 punts with five of those resulting in the opponent starting inside the 20-yard line and seven in fair catches.

NC State has been very conservative with its return game. They have chosen to return just 5 of 18 kickoff opportunities and six of 31 punt return opportunities.
 
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