“They weren’t even asked. They just hooked up their boats and headed out to go help their neighbors." (link: http://bit.ly/2xu8FAz) bit.ly/2xu8FAz
Hurricane Harvey
- Thread starter DFSNOLE
- Start date
Yep. we live with a thin veil of civil society and behavior. I am a full believer we are only 9 meals away from anarchy and chaos.
That sounds bad:
"'Get out now!' Levee breaches south of Houston as flooding intensifies"
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/29/us/harvey-houston-texas-louisiana/index.html
"'Get out now!' Levee breaches south of Houston as flooding intensifies"
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/29/us/harvey-houston-texas-louisiana/index.html
At least for our town, it's been very civilized. I just got out for the first time and went to CVS. Very well organized, everyone was friendly, no hoarding.
Ft. Bend County (Sugar Land, Missouri City) which is southwest of Houston has been evacuated. They are driving around in boats picking people up because the Brazos went over the levee. They were built to 500 year storm standards....pretty incredible.
Ten to twelve feet storm surge backed up the flow, then add four to five feet of rain. The water had no place to go. Nothing could have prevented the flooding in Houston.
I went through Georges in Santa Rosa County. We had a similar storm surge but only 21" of rain. My house was waterfront, built at 9' above sea level. Water was less than a foot from coming into my house. I can't imagine what another 2' of water would have done.
Water got in the house during Ivan, but the storm surge was way bigger. Estimated at nearly 40' based on what happened to the I-10 bridge.
I went through Georges in Santa Rosa County. We had a similar storm surge but only 21" of rain. My house was waterfront, built at 9' above sea level. Water was less than a foot from coming into my house. I can't imagine what another 2' of water would have done.
Water got in the house during Ivan, but the storm surge was way bigger. Estimated at nearly 40' based on what happened to the I-10 bridge.
Wow, I'm listening to the Cajun Navy dispatch on Zello. Some tragic stuff going on. Two week old child w/o food for 24 hours, mother with two autistic children in wheelchairs and waist high water in their apartment.
Expect a body count. It wouldn't be the first 2-4 days, when capable people are leaving. It will be all the people who COULDN'T leave or the activities after or the starvation. And as rescuers go back in, then they'll will find the bodies.
edit - and don't be surprised if they find animals picking over the dead.
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The San Jacinto River (I live about 3 miles from it) is 2 feet higher than its ever been and they don't even know when its going to crest. It is literally outside of any of their models at this point.
How it normally is:
The highest point that it was in the "Tax Day Flood in 2016":
What it is right now...
=youtubeXP_zShbUU0M
How it normally is:
The highest point that it was in the "Tax Day Flood in 2016":
What it is right now...
=youtubeXP_zShbUU0M
The San Jacinto River (I live about 3 miles from it) is 2 feet higher than its ever been and they don't even know when its going to crest. It is literally outside of any of their models at this point.
How it normally is:
The highest point that it was in the "Tax Day Flood in 2016":
What it is right now...
Third pic didn't come through. How far away from the Garrett Road Bridge are you? You said you're east side, yeah? Just heard that thing collapsed.
The San Jacinto River (I live about 3 miles from it) is 2 feet higher than its ever been and they don't even know when its going to crest. It is literally outside of any of their models at this point.
How it normally is:
The highest point that it was in the "Tax Day Flood in 2016":
What it is right now...
I haven't heard of any bridges collapsing near Kingwood. But it is flooding like it never has before in the back toward W Lake Houston Parkway
Its just insane. Good luck if you are staying in the area. My aunt was fine, and then my the time they considered evacuating, it was too late and they were not able to leave due to closures.
Was planning on it. Golf tourney in PCola on Thursday then was either going to hang Friday or cruise over to Biloxi for the night. The weekend is up in the air...
Thanks, we are safe. We were never in jeopardy of flooding, I live towards the first part of the video up that hill.
However, we are effectively stuck. As you can see from the video there is no going South (that is the West Fork of the San Jacinto River)... and North on 59 has been closed because the East Fork of the San Jacinto has breached the highway towards Cleveland.
I have not lost power or cable, so we have it better than most.
Fort Bend County is really in bad shape. My coworker and his family live in Sienna Plantation and had to evacuate yesterday morning. The community we grew up in (New Territory) had to evacuate and the neighboring community that I went to High School with (Pecan Grove) had to evacuate. My Mom and her husband live downstream of Addicks Reservoir by the Beltway/I-10 and might have to evacuate as that Reservoir is in bad shape now too.
Heard there was a tweet from an official in FB County saying flatly to just "get out now" due to the breaches and opening of the reservoirs.
Yeah. My wife and I had plans to leave Thurs night to drive up to Memphis and then over to Oklahoma to go to the Choctaw Powwow with my in-laws but Harvey is just sitting there not really moving and is now expected to be in Memphis when we would be there.
So Harvey has destroyed my Labor Day plans. Not that big of a deal of course, but I was going to pick up a barely used ProForm Tour De France "VR" stationary bike for my PCB facility in Covington on the way back and save a grand over the new price. Now I'm not driving over and the bike will probably be bought by someone else so I'm out my 45% share of the grand I was going to save.
Terrible I know.
And yes I'm being facetious, my hardship is hardly a real hardship.
That is someone standing on the same bridge as the video I posted... That river is now 3 feet higher than it's ever been and it hasn't crested yet
I see the new forecast has the remnants of this storm hitting Nashville on Friday. That's only 250 miles from ATL. A little wobble here or there may mean a wet weekend for the FSU-bama game.
Hate to be right about this:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hu...r-at-up-to-160-billion-accuweather-2017-08-30
"Hurricane Harvey will be the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history, AccuWeather said Wednesday, estimating the full cost at close to $160 billion. That would be similar to the combined cost of Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, the weather service said in a report. The cost will shave 8/10 of 1% off GDP, said the report. "
Harvey made a second landfall today in Louisiana as a tropical storm. Expect more flooding there.
We had about 1.3" yesterday. Other than one heavy band that came through early in the afternoon, we've been on the eastern edge of the rain making it generally light. No wind at all.
7/10" from an outer band as far east to Marianna, FL on Tuesday.
Ummm... third landfall? Thought that bastard hit the Bend area, went out briefly, then hit the Houston area. Now it's hitting PAT/Lake Charles.
Btw, 51.88" of rainfall so far. Or 30 Trillion gallons... two weeks worth of Niagara Falls in just over 72 hours?
Death toll has jumped to 30. I hope to be wrong, but I fear there will be many more bodies found as waters recede.
I'm heading over tomorrow to drop some stuff off and just wanted to pass along the link to local Seminole Club Facebook group that has some specific needs.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/82747858779/?fref=mentions
https://www.facebook.com/groups/82747858779/?fref=mentions
The hits keep coming : chemical plant explosion may be unavoidable.
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/h...-near-houston-likely-explode-facility-n797581
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/h...-near-houston-likely-explode-facility-n797581
It’s Time To Ditch The Concept Of ‘100-Year Floods’
Photos of water-covered neighborhoods and families riding floating refrigerators to safety have made clear the scale of Hurricane Harvey’s wrath. But the risks that coastal Texans faced before the storm hit — and the probability that others will be dealt a similar fate — are still a confusing mess. Surveys have shown that even people who live across the street from the bureaucratically determined risk zones known as floodplains don’t understand how those boundaries were drawn or what the risk metric that defines them really means.
That’s no surprise to experts, who say the concept of the “100-year flood” is one of the most misunderstood terms in disaster preparedness. In the wake of catastrophic flooding on the Texas coast, the media has been working hard to explain the term, turning out dozens of articles explaining that a “100-year flood” is not a flood that you should expect to happen only once every 100 years. Instead, it refers to a flood that has a 1 percent chance of happening in any given year. Over the course of a 30-year mortgage, a house in a 100-year floodplain has a 26 percent chance of being inundated at least once.This number is derived using probability theory. First, we calculate the probability of there not being a flood over a 30-year period. Since for each year, there is a 99 percent chance of there not being a flood, the chance that there is no flood over 30 years is 74 percent (or .99^30). The probability of a house in a 100-year floodplain being inundated at least once, then, is just the complement, so 26 percent.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-time-to-ditch-the-concept-of-100-year-floods/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-time-to-ditch-the-concept-of-100-year-floods/#fn-1
Photos of water-covered neighborhoods and families riding floating refrigerators to safety have made clear the scale of Hurricane Harvey’s wrath. But the risks that coastal Texans faced before the storm hit — and the probability that others will be dealt a similar fate — are still a confusing mess. Surveys have shown that even people who live across the street from the bureaucratically determined risk zones known as floodplains don’t understand how those boundaries were drawn or what the risk metric that defines them really means.
That’s no surprise to experts, who say the concept of the “100-year flood” is one of the most misunderstood terms in disaster preparedness. In the wake of catastrophic flooding on the Texas coast, the media has been working hard to explain the term, turning out dozens of articles explaining that a “100-year flood” is not a flood that you should expect to happen only once every 100 years. Instead, it refers to a flood that has a 1 percent chance of happening in any given year. Over the course of a 30-year mortgage, a house in a 100-year floodplain has a 26 percent chance of being inundated at least once.This number is derived using probability theory. First, we calculate the probability of there not being a flood over a 30-year period. Since for each year, there is a 99 percent chance of there not being a flood, the chance that there is no flood over 30 years is 74 percent (or .99^30). The probability of a house in a 100-year floodplain being inundated at least once, then, is just the complement, so 26 percent.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-time-to-ditch-the-concept-of-100-year-floods/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-time-to-ditch-the-concept-of-100-year-floods/#fn-1
Also, there are some computer models with a depression or tropical storm developing in western gulf early next week that could hit same area.
New tropical depression possible in the Gulf of Mexico next week
Residents of the water-weary Texas and Louisiana coasts will need to keep an eye toward the Gulf of Mexico next week, as multiple computer model runs show the possibility of another tropical cyclone developing somewhere in the western Gulf early next week. The potential is reflected in the 7-day precipitation forecast from the NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center, which shows an area of 3-5” rains in the western Gulf (see Figure 1).
The most likely scenario at this point is--if something does develop--a tropical depression or weak tropical storm moving slowly across the western Gulf. The 12Z Wednesday run of the GFS model predicts that the storm could be a threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast, including Texas and Louisiana, late next week. In contrast, the 12Z Wednesday run of the European model kept the storm bottled up in the Bay of Campeche, with impacts primarily to Mexico. If a storm does develop and pushes towards Texas, it will encounter cooler waters churned up by Harvey, which will tend to dampen intensification. In their Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 2 pm EDT Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center gave next week’s potential Gulf tropical depression 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/tropical-storm-irma-forms-eastern-atlantic
Looks like we are running low on gas here in N. Texas.
http://www.star-telegram.com/news/traffic/gas-prices/article170270997.html?#emlnl=Morning_Newsletter
http://www.star-telegram.com/news/traffic/gas-prices/article170270997.html?#emlnl=Morning_Newsletter
Two Quiktrips closest to me in Frisco are 100% out of gas. They were only out of 89 and 93 yesterday morning when I filled up. Was so crazy seeing the lines backed in to the streets at every single gas station I passed.
Must be how you "seasoned" LR's felt in '79. Would it be up to the governor to implement rationing schedules or would that be local/national authority?
