Invest 99L (Now TD 9)(Now TS Hermine)(Now Hurricane Hermine)
- Thread starter DFSNOLE
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Told you they canceled their seeding program! Seems crazy as it has never looked better. They are going nuts over it on Jeff Masters blog.
Little Change to 99L in The Bahamas;
By: Jeff Masters , 4:35 PM GMT on August 27, 2016
There is little new to say about the saga of tropical wave Invest 99L, which continued to chug west-northwest at 10 mph through the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday morning towards South Florida and the Florida Keys. Satellite loops late Saturday morning showed little change in the storm’s organization and heavy thunderstorms since yesterday; 99L still lacked a well-organized surface circulation center and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity was modest at best. Wind shear was a moderately high 15 - 20 knots, and 99L was still struggling with dry air, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remained favorable for development, though, near 30 - 30.5°C (86 - 87°F). The Hurricane Hunter missions for Saturday afternoon have been cancelled.
Track forecast for 99L
There is now model consensus among the GFS, European, and UKMET models that 99L will continue on its current west-northwest track for the next three days and not turn to the north along the west coast of Florida. A strong ridge of high pressure now covering much of the Southeast U.S. and northern Gulf of Mexico will remain in place through Tuesday, which should keep 99L on its general west-northwest track at 5 - 10 mph. The storm will pass by South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, bringing heavy rains to South Florida and Cuba on Saturday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. The 7-day precipitation outlook from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) calls for a large area of 3 - 7” rains across South Florida over the coming week.
Intensity forecast for 99L
The SHIPS model on Saturday morning predicted that wind shear would fall slightly, to 10 - 15 knots, Sunday afternoon and beyond. SSTs will increase to 30.5°C (87°F) by Wednesday, and mid-level relative humidity was predicted to decrease from 65% to 55 - 60%. The shear and dry air may be strong enough to continue to keep 99L from organizing into a tropical depression, as predicted by NHC: in their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day and 5-day odds of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm of 20% and 40%, respectively.
Two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical genesis, the ECMWF and GFS, continued to show no development of 99L into a tropical cyclone over the next five days in their latest 0Z Saturday (8 pm EDT Friday) runs. Our other reliable tropical cyclone genesis model, the UKMET, continued to predict that 99L would develop into a hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. Even though the development odds for 99L have decreased markedly since the storm moved past Puerto Rico, we should not relax our guard with this storm until the UKMET falls in line with the GFS and European models. I will continue to mistrust 99L, since a strong tropical wave moving through the Gulf during the peak part of hurricane season is always a potentially dangerous situation.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3402
By: Jeff Masters , 4:35 PM GMT on August 27, 2016
There is little new to say about the saga of tropical wave Invest 99L, which continued to chug west-northwest at 10 mph through the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday morning towards South Florida and the Florida Keys. Satellite loops late Saturday morning showed little change in the storm’s organization and heavy thunderstorms since yesterday; 99L still lacked a well-organized surface circulation center and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity was modest at best. Wind shear was a moderately high 15 - 20 knots, and 99L was still struggling with dry air, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remained favorable for development, though, near 30 - 30.5°C (86 - 87°F). The Hurricane Hunter missions for Saturday afternoon have been cancelled.
Track forecast for 99L
There is now model consensus among the GFS, European, and UKMET models that 99L will continue on its current west-northwest track for the next three days and not turn to the north along the west coast of Florida. A strong ridge of high pressure now covering much of the Southeast U.S. and northern Gulf of Mexico will remain in place through Tuesday, which should keep 99L on its general west-northwest track at 5 - 10 mph. The storm will pass by South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, bringing heavy rains to South Florida and Cuba on Saturday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. The 7-day precipitation outlook from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) calls for a large area of 3 - 7” rains across South Florida over the coming week.
Intensity forecast for 99L
The SHIPS model on Saturday morning predicted that wind shear would fall slightly, to 10 - 15 knots, Sunday afternoon and beyond. SSTs will increase to 30.5°C (87°F) by Wednesday, and mid-level relative humidity was predicted to decrease from 65% to 55 - 60%. The shear and dry air may be strong enough to continue to keep 99L from organizing into a tropical depression, as predicted by NHC: in their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day and 5-day odds of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm of 20% and 40%, respectively.
Two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical genesis, the ECMWF and GFS, continued to show no development of 99L into a tropical cyclone over the next five days in their latest 0Z Saturday (8 pm EDT Friday) runs. Our other reliable tropical cyclone genesis model, the UKMET, continued to predict that 99L would develop into a hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. Even though the development odds for 99L have decreased markedly since the storm moved past Puerto Rico, we should not relax our guard with this storm until the UKMET falls in line with the GFS and European models. I will continue to mistrust 99L, since a strong tropical wave moving through the Gulf during the peak part of hurricane season is always a potentially dangerous situation.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3402
Better for Tallahassee for it to pass slightly east of town than slightly west. Slightly west puts us getting the worst of the winds out of the gulf.
99L has been classified as TD 9 and is expected to become a tropical storm by sometime tomorrow afternoon. We'll see how much the track changes now.
Invest 99L Finally Develops Into Tropical Depression 9 in the Florida Straits
By: Jeff Masters , 12:11 AM GMT on August 29, 2016
After spending ten days in meteorological limbo-land frustrating forecasters as an “Invest”, 99L finally developed into Tropical Depression Nine, confirmed a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft late Sunday afternoon. But the storm isn’t done perplexing us yet—the model predictions for the future intensity of the storm remain wildly divergent, even if we now have growing confidence that this storm will track into the coast of Florida north of Tampa on Thursday.
Track forecast for TD 9
There is now model consensus among the GFS, European, HWRF and UKMET models that TD 9 will continue on its current west-northwest track through Monday, slow down and stall out in the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, then get caught in the steering flow of a trough of low pressure passing to its north on Wednesday. These steering currents should bring TD 9 to a landfall on the Florida coast north of Tampa on Thursday. In their 5 pm EDT Sunday Wind Probability Forecast, the highest odds for getting tropical storm force winds of 34+ mph from TD 9 were 26%, 24%, and 22%, respectively, for Apalachicola, Panama City, and Cedar Key, Florida. Tampa was given 18% odds.
Intensity forecast for TD 9
The SHIPS model on Sunday afternoon predicted moderately favorable conditions for intensification, with wind shear falling to a moderate 10 - 15 knots, Monday through Wednesday. SSTs will be a very warm 30°C (86°F), and mid-level relative humidity was predicted to be a reasonably moist 65 - 70%. However, the usually reliable European and GFS models showed little to no development of TD 9 in their latest 12Z Sunday (8 am EDT) runs. Our best intensity model, the HWRF model, had TD 9 rapidly intensifying into a strong Category 2 hurricane just before landfall. Other intensity models like the DSHIPS and LGEM models had TD 9 as a borderline Category 1 hurricane at landfall. This storm’s history has been to under-perform, so NHC’s conservative forecast of a 50 mph tropical storm at landfall was a reasonable first guess, given the storm’s weak showing in the GFS and European models. But TD 9 is hiding it cards—still—and could easily be an intensifying hurricane at landfall. The latest 18Z Sunday forecast from the GFS model had TD 9 about 5 - 10 mph stronger than in its previous run. I support a forecast of TD 9 being a strong tropical storm near hurricane strength at landfall—70 mph winds—until the models come into better alignment.
Bob Henson had a detailed summary of the action in the rest of the tropics in his 2 pm EDT Sunday post. We’ll be back Monday morning with a fresh look at the tropics.
Jeff Masters
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3404
By: Jeff Masters , 12:11 AM GMT on August 29, 2016
After spending ten days in meteorological limbo-land frustrating forecasters as an “Invest”, 99L finally developed into Tropical Depression Nine, confirmed a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft late Sunday afternoon. But the storm isn’t done perplexing us yet—the model predictions for the future intensity of the storm remain wildly divergent, even if we now have growing confidence that this storm will track into the coast of Florida north of Tampa on Thursday.
Track forecast for TD 9
There is now model consensus among the GFS, European, HWRF and UKMET models that TD 9 will continue on its current west-northwest track through Monday, slow down and stall out in the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, then get caught in the steering flow of a trough of low pressure passing to its north on Wednesday. These steering currents should bring TD 9 to a landfall on the Florida coast north of Tampa on Thursday. In their 5 pm EDT Sunday Wind Probability Forecast, the highest odds for getting tropical storm force winds of 34+ mph from TD 9 were 26%, 24%, and 22%, respectively, for Apalachicola, Panama City, and Cedar Key, Florida. Tampa was given 18% odds.
Intensity forecast for TD 9
The SHIPS model on Sunday afternoon predicted moderately favorable conditions for intensification, with wind shear falling to a moderate 10 - 15 knots, Monday through Wednesday. SSTs will be a very warm 30°C (86°F), and mid-level relative humidity was predicted to be a reasonably moist 65 - 70%. However, the usually reliable European and GFS models showed little to no development of TD 9 in their latest 12Z Sunday (8 am EDT) runs. Our best intensity model, the HWRF model, had TD 9 rapidly intensifying into a strong Category 2 hurricane just before landfall. Other intensity models like the DSHIPS and LGEM models had TD 9 as a borderline Category 1 hurricane at landfall. This storm’s history has been to under-perform, so NHC’s conservative forecast of a 50 mph tropical storm at landfall was a reasonable first guess, given the storm’s weak showing in the GFS and European models. But TD 9 is hiding it cards—still—and could easily be an intensifying hurricane at landfall. The latest 18Z Sunday forecast from the GFS model had TD 9 about 5 - 10 mph stronger than in its previous run. I support a forecast of TD 9 being a strong tropical storm near hurricane strength at landfall—70 mph winds—until the models come into better alignment.
Bob Henson had a detailed summary of the action in the rest of the tropics in his 2 pm EDT Sunday post. We’ll be back Monday morning with a fresh look at the tropics.
Jeff Masters
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3404
looks like something is pulling it straight toward Tally, as if a giant magnet were there or something.
I find it amazing how much uncertainty they have in projecting where these things are going. If you look at the computer models one still shows it going straight west. You would think with technology they could get a little more precise then a cone that covers the entire gulf.
Yeah. My understanding is it is really hard at the " invest" stage and even TD stage where you don't have a real defined center of circulation. They get much more accurate as it becomes a true tropical storm/Hurricane.
I sometimes wonder if these maps aren't a ploy for the govt to help sell batteries and bottled water.
I tend to agree, they can sell hundreds of batteries and water by placing the foretasted center of circulation over Chiefland.
The one that has it going west (BAMM) is one based almost solely on historical data. It is kind of the like the Farmer's Alamanac of models, and is only accurate 2-3 days out from landfall.
The government should sell naming rights to storms. The Aquafina Water Tropical Storm brought to you by Energizer Batteries.
The track has shifted to the north and west today. Not what I really wanted.
That super-hard right hand turn that had earlier been forecasted never struck me as likely.
Happens often when the storm is sitting relatively still waiting on a front to steer it as has been forecast.
Never struck me as probable, and, voila, seems like it isn't happening this time either. Stay dry and be well. I know you have already gotten more rain than you need.
yet they don't take that into account in the forecast?
Trying to figure out if they'll close schools on Thursday and/or Friday, here in Tallahassee. Looks like as of now it should/would hit in the late afternoon or evening on Thursday. After Baton Rouge, I imagine municipalities everywhere will be erring on the side of abundant caution.
The exit ramp from I-275 near my new place in St. Pete is already closed due to flooding. We haven't even started to see the worst of it.
Damn, brother.....they've now got this thing straightening out and coming straight for you. No fun. Take care.
Center might pass pretty close to TLH. Not too worried about this one. Just a lot of rain.
Subtitled, "GoNolz begins to realize why he got such a "great" deal on his new pad"
Sad, but true. I go my entire life without committing to owning a house and 3 weeks after I buy one, it floods.
Had to take the day off work. Spent it filling and stacking sandbags and buying stuff to pump out some of the standing foot of water in my back yard. The overflowing pool isn't helping. Got the last damn pump that Home Depot had. I hope it's able to hold of the deluge enough.At least it is a lesson to me that I should never commit to marriage. 3 weeks later, I'd probably find out the pool boy was doing more than the pool.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 700 PM CDT (0000 utc), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 25.5 north, longitude 87.4 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center will be near
the coast in the warning area Thursday night.
Recent reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
36 hours, and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time
landfall occurs.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center, mainly to the east and southeast.
The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA hurricane hunter
aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind: tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are possible over portions of the Hurricane Watch area
beginning Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Friday.
Storm surge: the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the
Gulf Coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the prototype National Weather Service
storm surge watch/warning graphic. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including
evacuation orders, from local officials.
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 6 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear...1 to 3 feet
The prototype National Weather Service storm surge watch/warning
graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017. This prototype graphic is available at
www.Hurricanes.Gov/graphics_at4.Shtml?Wsurge
Rainfall: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida through
Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of
the southeastern United States from southeast Georgia, central to
eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with local
amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday. These rains
may cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.
Tornadoes: isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into
Thursday morning mainly across central Florida. A few tornadoes are
possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over North Florida
and southeast Georgia.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Tropical-Storm-Hermine?text=public
------------------------------
at 700 PM CDT (0000 utc), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 25.5 north, longitude 87.4 west. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center will be near
the coast in the warning area Thursday night.
Recent reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
36 hours, and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time
landfall occurs.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center, mainly to the east and southeast.
The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA hurricane hunter
aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind: tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are possible over portions of the Hurricane Watch area
beginning Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Friday.
Storm surge: the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the
Gulf Coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the prototype National Weather Service
storm surge watch/warning graphic. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including
evacuation orders, from local officials.
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 6 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear...1 to 3 feet
The prototype National Weather Service storm surge watch/warning
graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017. This prototype graphic is available at
www.Hurricanes.Gov/graphics_at4.Shtml?Wsurge
Rainfall: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida through
Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of
the southeastern United States from southeast Georgia, central to
eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with local
amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday. These rains
may cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.
Tornadoes: isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into
Thursday morning mainly across central Florida. A few tornadoes are
possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over North Florida
and southeast Georgia.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Tropical-Storm-Hermine?text=public
Glad our house is near the top of a hill, we sit at 165', on the other hand we have some big pines that scare me.
Sad, but true. I go my entire life without committing to owning a house and 3 weeks after I buy one, it floods.
At least it is a lesson to me that I should never commit to marriage. 3 weeks later, I'd probably find out the pool boy was doing more than the pool.
Hang in there GoNolz! Thinking positive thoughts for you. You'll be fine....*gulp*
Now forecast to be a Cat 1 hurricane at landfall. If so, it will be the first hurricane to hit Florida since 2005 I believe.
