Editor's note: I'm trying something new with this story. I am posting the whole story here on the message board as I think it will make it easeier for more people to comment. Let me know your thoughts.
The Athletic recently compiled statistics on the shocking number of Top 100 football players who are transferring after their first two years of college.
How bad is it?
Of the top 100 prospects in the class of 2022, 39 transferred at last once within their first two years of college. To put that 39 percent attrition rate into perspective:
41 percent of first marriages result in divorce;
60 percent of second marriages end in divorce;
Third marriages? They haven't bee the charm either, as 73 percent filed for divorce.
Next time a kid enters the portal and you wonder what ever became of the concept of "commitment", consider this: Of all the people who pledged their marital commitment to each other in America, 51 percent wound up in the portal.
Here's a few portal details:
The Athletic reports that eight of the Top 100 players in the 2024 cycle switched schools in the winter portal, less than one year into their commitment, and another three put their names into the portal after spring practice.
By this point last spring, 16 of the top 100 recruits in the 2023 cycle had changed schools and another 22 have since entered their names. This includes FSU wide receiver Jalen Brown, who was granted a divorce from LSU, then dismissed from the Seminoles for a felony substance possession, and is now looking to commit for a third time.
In the class of 2022, 39 of the top 100 prospects have transferred at last once within their first two years of college.
So how does FSU compare to those national statistics, and to its rivals?
FSU signed only 10 Top 100 prospects in the 2022 to 2025 classes -- an issue for another column -- with four (40 percent) entering the transfer portal, while six have either completed their career or are still on the roster.
FSU's 2025 home opener will be against the University of Alabama, which has signed a total of 39 Top 100 prospects in those classes. Of the 39, 18 have entered the portal (46.15 percent).
The Seminoles' top in-state rivals have fared better than either Alabama or Florida State. Florida has lost four of its 15 Top 100 prospects (26.67 percent), while Miami has seen three of its 16 (18.75 percent) Top 100 signees enter the portal.
When it comes to retention, Clemson is doing it very well with only one of their 15 top 100 signees (6.67 percent) entering the portal.
Here's a look at what became of the 10 Top 100 players signed by Florida State since 2022.
2022 — Offensive lineman Julian Armella was No. 66. He transferred to UCLA. Defensive back Sam McCall (No. 68) transferred to Texas A&M and is now at Georgia State. Defensive back AZ Thomas (No. 69) was drafted in the 3rd round with the 73rd pick by the New York Jets.
2023 — Five-star wide receiver Hykeem Williams (No. 26) had 258 career yards and two touchdowns at FSU before entering the portal following a hamstring-limited 2024 season.
2024 Defensive backs Charles Lester (No. 47) and Cai Bates (No. 79), tight end Landen Thomas (No. 98) and receiver Elijah Moore (No. 100) are still on the team. Thomas started in the last seven games as a true freshman and had 14 receptions for 172 yards and a touchdown. Quarterback Luke Kromenhoek (No. 96) transferred to Mississippi State after playing in six games with two starts. He completed 44 of 84 passes for 502 yards and three touchdowns, adding 113 rushing yards on 63 carries.
2025 — Wide receiver Jayvan Boggs was No. 74 and impressed in spring as an early enrolee.
Why are players enterting the portal?
The Athletic asked NIL agents and coaches why these elite players are leaving, and like marriage the answer isn’t always just about money.
“You can’t blame the players for wanting more money if there’s options to do so. Coaches do the same thing,” an NIL agent who represents several elite former recruits said this week. “But I really haven’t had many situations where the players I’ve represented are just asking for more money. It’s more about their fit, how quickly they can get on the field to get to the NFL.”
A former Power 4 staffer said: “When an elite kid leaves, it’s usually because they just don’t fit in the program or don’t play early. Most P4 coaches have around the same salary cap to keep the guys starting happy. Guys who aren’t playing, who feel like they should, hit the portal and see if they can go somewhere else for the same money and start.
Fit equals compatibility
The word “fit” is a new buzz word you hear athletic directors and coaches use in much the same way we used to use the word “compatible” to describe the blushing bride and groom on their wedding day. Or later, to explain why said couple was parting paths. They were “incompatible” or suffered “irreconcilable differences.”
According to experts from the CDC, the No. 1 reason given for divorce in America is incompatibility. Over 65 percent claimed it as the biggest reason.
Infidelity is the second biggest reason in marriage, or what we call tampering in athletics, where one school is tempting a player to step out on their commitment.
Unrealistic expectations for marriage was No. 5 on the list of reasons, and I’ll bet it would be ranked even higher among collegiate athletes. Forty percent of divorced couples – especially those 18 to 22 -- claimed “their understanding of marriage was unreasonably rosy, and they couldn’t fully envision the twists and turns awaiting them.”
When you see the age group 18 to 22 having the most problem envisioning the twists and turns of marriage, how clearly do you think that age group can envision the twists and turns of college athletics?
The recruiting process is a seductive courtship, with coaches and players evaluating each other while imagining how they could fit together for each other’s mutual benefit. Even if the courtship is long — and recruiting cycles today are longer than in previous decades — the English language is incapable of painting a clear enough picture of the challenge ahead.
No matter how careful the coach is in his evaluation of a prospect, or in his choice of words to use with that prospect or his guardians, too often they are insufficient. No matter how certain the parties are about being a perfect fit, those binds will be tested by the rigors of college athletics and academics. As your parents and the clergy advise you prior to entering into the vows of matrimony, you don’t really know someone (or yourself) until the honeymoon is over and you have to go back to work, live together, and face those life adversities that will test whether you are truly a fit for each other.
Constant quarrels, financial troubles, addiction, domestic violence, as well as health and weight gain are other leading causes of divorce in America, and at times are the reasons coaches and players part paths, too.
Football. Competition. The scoreboard. Each have knocked strong men to their knees. Each is unforgiving and why it should not come as a surprise that the rate of divorce between coaches and players trends only slightly lower than that of husbands and wives.
The Athletic recently compiled statistics on the shocking number of Top 100 football players who are transferring after their first two years of college.
How bad is it?
Of the top 100 prospects in the class of 2022, 39 transferred at last once within their first two years of college. To put that 39 percent attrition rate into perspective:
41 percent of first marriages result in divorce;
60 percent of second marriages end in divorce;
Third marriages? They haven't bee the charm either, as 73 percent filed for divorce.
Next time a kid enters the portal and you wonder what ever became of the concept of "commitment", consider this: Of all the people who pledged their marital commitment to each other in America, 51 percent wound up in the portal.
Here's a few portal details:
The Athletic reports that eight of the Top 100 players in the 2024 cycle switched schools in the winter portal, less than one year into their commitment, and another three put their names into the portal after spring practice.
By this point last spring, 16 of the top 100 recruits in the 2023 cycle had changed schools and another 22 have since entered their names. This includes FSU wide receiver Jalen Brown, who was granted a divorce from LSU, then dismissed from the Seminoles for a felony substance possession, and is now looking to commit for a third time.
In the class of 2022, 39 of the top 100 prospects have transferred at last once within their first two years of college.
So how does FSU compare to those national statistics, and to its rivals?
FSU signed only 10 Top 100 prospects in the 2022 to 2025 classes -- an issue for another column -- with four (40 percent) entering the transfer portal, while six have either completed their career or are still on the roster.
FSU's 2025 home opener will be against the University of Alabama, which has signed a total of 39 Top 100 prospects in those classes. Of the 39, 18 have entered the portal (46.15 percent).
The Seminoles' top in-state rivals have fared better than either Alabama or Florida State. Florida has lost four of its 15 Top 100 prospects (26.67 percent), while Miami has seen three of its 16 (18.75 percent) Top 100 signees enter the portal.
When it comes to retention, Clemson is doing it very well with only one of their 15 top 100 signees (6.67 percent) entering the portal.
Here's a look at what became of the 10 Top 100 players signed by Florida State since 2022.
2022 — Offensive lineman Julian Armella was No. 66. He transferred to UCLA. Defensive back Sam McCall (No. 68) transferred to Texas A&M and is now at Georgia State. Defensive back AZ Thomas (No. 69) was drafted in the 3rd round with the 73rd pick by the New York Jets.
2023 — Five-star wide receiver Hykeem Williams (No. 26) had 258 career yards and two touchdowns at FSU before entering the portal following a hamstring-limited 2024 season.
2024 Defensive backs Charles Lester (No. 47) and Cai Bates (No. 79), tight end Landen Thomas (No. 98) and receiver Elijah Moore (No. 100) are still on the team. Thomas started in the last seven games as a true freshman and had 14 receptions for 172 yards and a touchdown. Quarterback Luke Kromenhoek (No. 96) transferred to Mississippi State after playing in six games with two starts. He completed 44 of 84 passes for 502 yards and three touchdowns, adding 113 rushing yards on 63 carries.
2025 — Wide receiver Jayvan Boggs was No. 74 and impressed in spring as an early enrolee.
Why are players enterting the portal?
The Athletic asked NIL agents and coaches why these elite players are leaving, and like marriage the answer isn’t always just about money.
“You can’t blame the players for wanting more money if there’s options to do so. Coaches do the same thing,” an NIL agent who represents several elite former recruits said this week. “But I really haven’t had many situations where the players I’ve represented are just asking for more money. It’s more about their fit, how quickly they can get on the field to get to the NFL.”
A former Power 4 staffer said: “When an elite kid leaves, it’s usually because they just don’t fit in the program or don’t play early. Most P4 coaches have around the same salary cap to keep the guys starting happy. Guys who aren’t playing, who feel like they should, hit the portal and see if they can go somewhere else for the same money and start.
Fit equals compatibility
The word “fit” is a new buzz word you hear athletic directors and coaches use in much the same way we used to use the word “compatible” to describe the blushing bride and groom on their wedding day. Or later, to explain why said couple was parting paths. They were “incompatible” or suffered “irreconcilable differences.”
According to experts from the CDC, the No. 1 reason given for divorce in America is incompatibility. Over 65 percent claimed it as the biggest reason.
Infidelity is the second biggest reason in marriage, or what we call tampering in athletics, where one school is tempting a player to step out on their commitment.
Unrealistic expectations for marriage was No. 5 on the list of reasons, and I’ll bet it would be ranked even higher among collegiate athletes. Forty percent of divorced couples – especially those 18 to 22 -- claimed “their understanding of marriage was unreasonably rosy, and they couldn’t fully envision the twists and turns awaiting them.”
When you see the age group 18 to 22 having the most problem envisioning the twists and turns of marriage, how clearly do you think that age group can envision the twists and turns of college athletics?
The recruiting process is a seductive courtship, with coaches and players evaluating each other while imagining how they could fit together for each other’s mutual benefit. Even if the courtship is long — and recruiting cycles today are longer than in previous decades — the English language is incapable of painting a clear enough picture of the challenge ahead.
No matter how careful the coach is in his evaluation of a prospect, or in his choice of words to use with that prospect or his guardians, too often they are insufficient. No matter how certain the parties are about being a perfect fit, those binds will be tested by the rigors of college athletics and academics. As your parents and the clergy advise you prior to entering into the vows of matrimony, you don’t really know someone (or yourself) until the honeymoon is over and you have to go back to work, live together, and face those life adversities that will test whether you are truly a fit for each other.
Constant quarrels, financial troubles, addiction, domestic violence, as well as health and weight gain are other leading causes of divorce in America, and at times are the reasons coaches and players part paths, too.
Football. Competition. The scoreboard. Each have knocked strong men to their knees. Each is unforgiving and why it should not come as a surprise that the rate of divorce between coaches and players trends only slightly lower than that of husbands and wives.
