There are two discussions when it comes to projecting win-loss improvement for Florida State in 2025: Statistical and emotional.
What is reasonable improvement statistically is different from what is reasonable improvement emotionally.
The emotional is tied to the brand. FSU should be a team that competes each week and is in the mix for a conference title. It’s rooted in emotions of FSU’s dynasty years, 14 seasons with top-4 finishes, and three national titles.
The statistical is more complex. After winning two games in 2024, there’s nowhere to go but up. But after weighing the transfer additions, which position groups do we feel better about when comparing last fall to this season? And when evaluating the opponents on the schedule, where does FSU have the head-to-head edge?
How many more wins can FSU grab in 2025? A four- or five-win improvement would be statistically significant. It’s plausible as we’ve seen those types of one-year turnarounds in the ACC in the transfer portal era (since October 2018). A six- or seven-win Seminoles team may not be emotionally satisfying, and we’ll save that discussion for later, but statistically there’s precedent in how coaches can turn a program around by using the transfer portal.
We’ve already seen the most rapid descent of the transfer portal era as FSU slid from 13-1 to 2-10 in a year. The transfer portal offers opportunities for a quick rebuild, bringing in veterans who are older (perhaps more mature), are ahead from a strength and conditioning standpoint and bring varying amounts of experience, production and leadership. There are new voices in every room, as well as six new assistant coaches (including coordinators Gus Malzahn and Tony White).
Let’s start with a look at the biggest one-year turnarounds among ACC schools in the transfer portal era:
Boston College
2022 (3-9) / 2023 (7-6)
Jeff Hafley enjoys a four-win turnaround from year 3 to year 4. And, yes, part of it as a result of mobile quarterback Tommy Castellanos. He rushes for 1,113 yards, has 13 rushing touchdowns and throws for 2,248 yards (with 15 touchdowns to 14 interceptions).
Duke
2021 (3-9) / 2022 (9-4)
David Cutcliffe retired after 14 seasons at Duke, many of which were very successful (six bowl appearances in seven years between 2012-18). But Duke slid to 3-9 in 2021. In comes Mike Elko, who vaulted the program by six wins to 9-4 in 2022.
Louisville
2018 (2-10) / 2019 (8-5)
The second Bobby Petrino era at Louisville ends with him going 2-8 in 2018. Scott Satterfield jumps in and quickly turns the Cardinals from a 2-10 season to an 8-5 mark in 2019.
North Carolina
2018 (2-9) / 2019 (7-6)
Larry Fedora is dismissed after going 2-9 in 2018. Mack Brown returns for his second stint at UNC and goes 7-6 in 2019.
Syracuse
2020 (1-10) / 2021 (5-7)
2023 (5-6) / 2024 (10-3)
Dino Babers struggled in a COVID season but was able to generate a four-win bounce back in 2021. Babers went just 5-6 in 2023 and was dismissed.
Fran Brown arrives from Georgia before the 2024 season and delivers an impressive five-game turnaround.
Virginia Tech
2022 (3-8) / 2023 (7-6)
Year 1 under Brent Pry wasn’t very good as he had a tough roster rebuild after Justin Fuente’s dismissal. Pry’s Era at VT hasn’t been a “wow,” as the Hokies went 6-7 in 2024.
What conclusions we can take from the history lesson
There are some parallels here when looking at the seven turnarounds, all of which include at least a four-win improvement from one year to the next.
Every coach had to hit the transfer portal to begin a turnaround. Here are two examples:
VT hit on a pair of offensive transfers, quarterback Kyron Drones from Baylor and Bhaysul Tuten from NC A&T, to lead the offense in 2023. Tuten ran for 863 yards and 10 TDs. Drones ended up with nearly 3,000 offensive yards and wasn’t the full-time starter until VT’s third game.
Brown landed Kyle McCord from Ohio State at quarterback ahead of the 2024 season. McCord was a 3,000-yard passer, connecting often with Georgia transfer receiver Jackson Meeks (78 catches, 1,021 yards, seven TDs).
Most coaches were early in their time at a school, or a program was coming off a coaching transition in four instances. In the others, Hafley and Pry enjoyed four-win improvements and Babers settled back in after a difficult COVID season (which is often a statistical outlier for many programs, including FSU’s 3-6 mark in 2020 with Norvell in Year 1).
Here's where things get fun: It’s a potentially juicy scenario where Castellanos could be the sparkplug behind significant statistical turnarounds at two ACC schools in just three years. Castellanos is not a fit in a number of offenses, but he could be the right fit for the Norvell-Malzahn offense and the right personality for this program right now.
“You can watch him over the last few years, you see the ability as a passer, as a runner. But what you don’t see and what you don’t feel just watching a guy on TV is the impact within a room,” Norvell said. “That’s probably been my favorite quality of his. He ignites not just one side of the ball – offensively, defensively, special teams. He has such a connective personality to those that he’s around. He’s willing to pour into others. He’s not just sitting there and talking about it. He's putting in the work and trying to uphold a standard of what we want this team to be.”
What’s hasn’t happened yet in the portal era is a coach like Norvell earning a bounce-back season so deep in his time with a program. Norvell is set to begin his sixth year at FSU in 2025.
Earlier, we brought up the differences in statistical satisfaction and emotional satisfaction with the win-loss record. It doesn’t take a statistician to conclude that FSU football wasn’t fun in 2024. How satisfied a fan, or tens of thousands of ticket holders, will be this fall is relative to not just the total FSU victories but also the value of a win over a rival.
A victory over an Alabama, Miami, Clemson or Florida would bring significant emotional value. Those wins inspire fans to plan more trips to Tallahassee for games, or to see the team on the road. And fans would likely be willing to spend more money in booster contributions, too.
FSU’s over-under win-loss total has been projected at 7.5 by some oddsmakers. Many of us on the Osceola staff feel FSU will go under eight wins in the regular season, especially weighing the challenges of the schedule (which includes a Friday night game at NC State, among other tough matchups). One could argue that a 6-6 FSU season with a win over a rival is more valuable than a 7-5 year without a rivalry win. Or you might disagree. That’s an emotional discussion.
The statistical argument is that it’s very realistic to see the Seminoles make a jump of four wins (or more) as Norvell, Malzahn, White and 40 new players lead a thorough renovation of the program.
What is reasonable improvement statistically is different from what is reasonable improvement emotionally.
The emotional is tied to the brand. FSU should be a team that competes each week and is in the mix for a conference title. It’s rooted in emotions of FSU’s dynasty years, 14 seasons with top-4 finishes, and three national titles.
The statistical is more complex. After winning two games in 2024, there’s nowhere to go but up. But after weighing the transfer additions, which position groups do we feel better about when comparing last fall to this season? And when evaluating the opponents on the schedule, where does FSU have the head-to-head edge?
How many more wins can FSU grab in 2025? A four- or five-win improvement would be statistically significant. It’s plausible as we’ve seen those types of one-year turnarounds in the ACC in the transfer portal era (since October 2018). A six- or seven-win Seminoles team may not be emotionally satisfying, and we’ll save that discussion for later, but statistically there’s precedent in how coaches can turn a program around by using the transfer portal.
We’ve already seen the most rapid descent of the transfer portal era as FSU slid from 13-1 to 2-10 in a year. The transfer portal offers opportunities for a quick rebuild, bringing in veterans who are older (perhaps more mature), are ahead from a strength and conditioning standpoint and bring varying amounts of experience, production and leadership. There are new voices in every room, as well as six new assistant coaches (including coordinators Gus Malzahn and Tony White).
Let’s start with a look at the biggest one-year turnarounds among ACC schools in the transfer portal era:
Boston College
2022 (3-9) / 2023 (7-6)
Jeff Hafley enjoys a four-win turnaround from year 3 to year 4. And, yes, part of it as a result of mobile quarterback Tommy Castellanos. He rushes for 1,113 yards, has 13 rushing touchdowns and throws for 2,248 yards (with 15 touchdowns to 14 interceptions).
Duke
2021 (3-9) / 2022 (9-4)
David Cutcliffe retired after 14 seasons at Duke, many of which were very successful (six bowl appearances in seven years between 2012-18). But Duke slid to 3-9 in 2021. In comes Mike Elko, who vaulted the program by six wins to 9-4 in 2022.
Louisville
2018 (2-10) / 2019 (8-5)
The second Bobby Petrino era at Louisville ends with him going 2-8 in 2018. Scott Satterfield jumps in and quickly turns the Cardinals from a 2-10 season to an 8-5 mark in 2019.
North Carolina
2018 (2-9) / 2019 (7-6)
Larry Fedora is dismissed after going 2-9 in 2018. Mack Brown returns for his second stint at UNC and goes 7-6 in 2019.
Syracuse
2020 (1-10) / 2021 (5-7)
2023 (5-6) / 2024 (10-3)
Dino Babers struggled in a COVID season but was able to generate a four-win bounce back in 2021. Babers went just 5-6 in 2023 and was dismissed.
Fran Brown arrives from Georgia before the 2024 season and delivers an impressive five-game turnaround.
Virginia Tech
2022 (3-8) / 2023 (7-6)
Year 1 under Brent Pry wasn’t very good as he had a tough roster rebuild after Justin Fuente’s dismissal. Pry’s Era at VT hasn’t been a “wow,” as the Hokies went 6-7 in 2024.
What conclusions we can take from the history lesson
There are some parallels here when looking at the seven turnarounds, all of which include at least a four-win improvement from one year to the next.
Every coach had to hit the transfer portal to begin a turnaround. Here are two examples:
VT hit on a pair of offensive transfers, quarterback Kyron Drones from Baylor and Bhaysul Tuten from NC A&T, to lead the offense in 2023. Tuten ran for 863 yards and 10 TDs. Drones ended up with nearly 3,000 offensive yards and wasn’t the full-time starter until VT’s third game.
Brown landed Kyle McCord from Ohio State at quarterback ahead of the 2024 season. McCord was a 3,000-yard passer, connecting often with Georgia transfer receiver Jackson Meeks (78 catches, 1,021 yards, seven TDs).
Most coaches were early in their time at a school, or a program was coming off a coaching transition in four instances. In the others, Hafley and Pry enjoyed four-win improvements and Babers settled back in after a difficult COVID season (which is often a statistical outlier for many programs, including FSU’s 3-6 mark in 2020 with Norvell in Year 1).
Here's where things get fun: It’s a potentially juicy scenario where Castellanos could be the sparkplug behind significant statistical turnarounds at two ACC schools in just three years. Castellanos is not a fit in a number of offenses, but he could be the right fit for the Norvell-Malzahn offense and the right personality for this program right now.
“You can watch him over the last few years, you see the ability as a passer, as a runner. But what you don’t see and what you don’t feel just watching a guy on TV is the impact within a room,” Norvell said. “That’s probably been my favorite quality of his. He ignites not just one side of the ball – offensively, defensively, special teams. He has such a connective personality to those that he’s around. He’s willing to pour into others. He’s not just sitting there and talking about it. He's putting in the work and trying to uphold a standard of what we want this team to be.”
What’s hasn’t happened yet in the portal era is a coach like Norvell earning a bounce-back season so deep in his time with a program. Norvell is set to begin his sixth year at FSU in 2025.
Earlier, we brought up the differences in statistical satisfaction and emotional satisfaction with the win-loss record. It doesn’t take a statistician to conclude that FSU football wasn’t fun in 2024. How satisfied a fan, or tens of thousands of ticket holders, will be this fall is relative to not just the total FSU victories but also the value of a win over a rival.
A victory over an Alabama, Miami, Clemson or Florida would bring significant emotional value. Those wins inspire fans to plan more trips to Tallahassee for games, or to see the team on the road. And fans would likely be willing to spend more money in booster contributions, too.
FSU’s over-under win-loss total has been projected at 7.5 by some oddsmakers. Many of us on the Osceola staff feel FSU will go under eight wins in the regular season, especially weighing the challenges of the schedule (which includes a Friday night game at NC State, among other tough matchups). One could argue that a 6-6 FSU season with a win over a rival is more valuable than a 7-5 year without a rivalry win. Or you might disagree. That’s an emotional discussion.
The statistical argument is that it’s very realistic to see the Seminoles make a jump of four wins (or more) as Norvell, Malzahn, White and 40 new players lead a thorough renovation of the program.
