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COVID cancellations coming

Just saw that. Wonder if that’s a sign. PCB is having their big thing the same weekend as ND and no suggestions of cancelling. That’s good.
It can't be good. JJ Grey plays in Tallahassee in a few weeks. It will be interesting to see if that goes on as planned.
 
It’s all trending horribly. I don’t know what thread it was in but I posted my friend who works as a hospital admin was updating me on how many covid patients they have. They were down to 30 in late June. Now up to 415. Deaths will continue to rise. Good news: 85% in hospital are unvaxxed.
 
So a one off anecdotal story? It’s very rare for double vaxxed people to get seriously sick or die. But very rare doesn’t mean never. And with the amount of infections absolutely out of control I’m guessing you’ll see it again. It’s a shame people didn’t just get this vaccine in May. But now with hospitalizations absolutely out of control it wouldn’t shock me in the least to see events cancelled. Wearing a mask in publix isn’t the issue, it’s packed bars and concerts and sporting events and huge parties.
Hospitalizations aren’t out of control. We had 156 inpatients 2 weeks ago now down to 90, and dropping. I 100% agree we need people who are at risk and want vax to get it, those with natural immunity are also helping prevent further spread and we need better therapies along with early treatments. We all want the same thing, health safety and prosperity. We all have different ideas how to get there. Censorship and lack of dialogue will only further divide our country.
 
Hospitalizations aren’t out of control. We had 156 inpatients 2 weeks ago now down to 90, and dropping. I 100% agree we need people who are at risk and want vax to get it, those with natural immunity are also helping prevent further spread and we need better therapies along with early treatments. We all want the same thing, health safety and prosperity. We all have different ideas how to get there. Censorship and lack of dialogue will only further divide our country.
I don’t know where you are but in FL it’s out of control.
 
it's worth reading through the recent UK report. it is very representative of the debate emanating from each side of the table and reflective of the positives and negatives from each side.

looking at pages 13 and 14 specifically the overwhelming number of COVID delta positives are unvaccinated and under 50 years of age. conversely the majority of deaths that have occurred from delta are in the double vaccinated over 50 age group.

these numbers don't parallel what we are seeing in florida but they are, in terms of the age of people affected, within a few percentage points (~95% of the deaths in the UK have been 50+ in the report vs. ~90% of the deaths during the past three weeks in FL being 50+). that age group in both locations is representative of its highest vaccination rate.

 
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It’s all trending horribly. I don’t know what thread it was in but I posted my friend who works as a hospital admin was updating me on how many covid patients they have. They were down to 30 in late June. Now up to 415. Deaths will continue to rise. Good news: 85% in hospital are unvaxxed.
My 33 year old nephew is in Mayo. Admitted yesterday and on oxygen and IV's.
Unvaxxed. 😡😔🙏
 
Local (Leon) schools requiring masks when schools start in two days.
The Rt for Florida peaked out a week ago. Dropped from a peak of 1.35 to 1.2 last Friday. Still means growing spread, but Delta variant in other countries dropped fast. Good amount of vaccination and a previous infection percentage of 43% indicates it will burn out fast. Will update when the model is updated, probably later today after they get the weekend numbers in the data.
 
it's worth reading through the recent UK report. it is very representative of the debate emanating from each side of the table and reflective of the positives and negatives from each side.

looking at pages 13 and 14 specifically the overwhelming number of COVID delta positives are unvaccinated and under 50 years of age. conversely the majority of deaths that have occurred from delta are in the double vaccinated over 50 age group.

these numbers don't parallel what we are seeing in florida but they are, in terms of the age of people affected, within a few percentage points (~95% of the deaths in the UK have been 50+ in the report vs. ~90% of the deaths during the past three weeks in FL being 50+). that age group in both locations is representative of its highest vaccination rate.

Interesting data. I wish we could get more of it in the US.
 
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Hospitalizations aren’t out of control. We had 156 inpatients 2 weeks ago now down to 90, and dropping. I 100% agree we need people who are at risk and want vax to get it, those with natural immunity are also helping prevent further spread and we need better therapies along with early treatments. We all want the same thing, health safety and prosperity. We all have different ideas how to get there. Censorship and lack of dialogue will only further divide our country.
I don't think that we want the same thing at all. I don't know what you want at this point, but your approach doesn't result in what I want - less people getting infected and COVID going away for most if not all of the worldwide population. That's what happens when as many people as possible get vaccinated. It does NOT occur through this idea of "natural immunity" that you have. That is, in part, the whole point of vaccines in the first place. So please don't lump us together. The scope of what we want is very different.
 
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He’s in neverland
I’m at a level 1, 1000 bed facility in Springfield MO, we were on the wonderful national news last month and today show bc of the outbreak. Good news doesn’t sell
 
The Rt for Florida peaked out a week ago. Dropped from a peak of 1.35 to 1.2 last Friday. Still means growing spread, but Delta variant in other countries dropped fast. Good amount of vaccination and a previous infection percentage of 43% indicates it will burn out fast. Will update when the model is updated, probably later today after they get the weekend numbers in the data.
Florida latest Rt = 1.09. Leon County a little higher at 1.27. Both on the downside of the slope.
 
Florida latest Rt = 1.09. Leon County a little higher at 1.27. Both on the downside of the slope.
Curious….case rates hit 28,300 plus both Saturday and Sunday with 20% positivity rate in Florida…both daily records, when do you expect infections to plateau/drop and positivity rates to follow?
 
Curious….case rates hit 28,300 plus both Saturday and Sunday with 20% positivity rate in Florida…both daily records, when do you expect infections to plateau/drop and positivity rates to follow?
According to the model, you should see all starting to drop soon. The actual data is a little noisy, as reporting is not instantaneous. With an Rt of 1.09, that means there is still spread above a 1 to 1 ratio. When the Rt goes below 1, then numbers go down. Looks like Florida as a state should be there by the end of the week, if not sooner. Leon County probably next week.
 
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According to the model, you should see all starting to drop soon. The actual data is a little noisy, as reporting is not instantaneous. With an Rt of 1.09, that means there is still spread above a 1 to 1 ratio. When the Rt goes below 1, then numbers go down. Looks like Florida as a state should be there by the end of the week, if not sooner. Leon County probably next week.
God I hope so. A lot of football teams both college and pro are going to be feeling pressure on both sides of this. As cases and deaths continue to soar in FL it’s gonna look ugly when we have 78k packed into Doak in 3.5 weeks. I hope the tide has at least begun to turn by then. I cannot believe we’re still here talking about this.
 
172 children currently hospitalized with Covid in Florida.
Lot of unanswered questions. Delta ramps up twice as fast and viral loads can be 1000 times higher at day 3, than the original variant. (Alpha also had higher viral loads). However, the viral loads then go down fast too. This could explain the increase in hospitalizations.
Yet, there is no data that Delta is more virulent than Alpha. Also, are the two healthy children on the ventilator for Mis-c? Heard a doc from Philadelphia Children's Hospital say all their ventilated kids were from Mis-C and all recover.
 
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Lot of unanswered questions. Delta ramps up twice as fast and viral loads can be 1000 times higher at day 3, than the original variant. (Alpha also had higher viral loads). However, the viral loads then go down fast too. This could explain the increase in hospitalizations.
Yet, there is no data that Delta is more virulent than Alpha. Also, are the two healthy children on the ventilator for Mis-c? Heard a doc from Philadelphia Children's Hospital say all their ventilated kids were from Mis-C and all recover.
Thrilled to hear they will allegedly recover. As a parent whose child spent the first three months of his life in the hospital, I know there are 172 families white knuckling it in Florida today and I certainly don’t envy them and am praying for them.
 
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I think some of you are really discounting how bad it’s getting in the hospitals. Tampa General is now turning an outpatient holding area for cardiac patients into additional ER space. It’s insane. Elective procedures are off just about everywhere.
 
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My 33 year old nephew is in Mayo. Admitted yesterday and on oxygen and IV's.
Unvaxxed. 😡😔🙏
My friend in UAB ICU continues to hang on. 26 days on a ventilator, ECMO, dialysis and a tracheotomy...... Can't get her out of sedation without BP falling...........
 
I think some of you are really discounting how bad it’s getting in the hospitals. Tampa General is now turning an outpatient holding area for cardiac patients into additional ER space. It’s insane. Elective procedures are off just about everywhere.
i don't know if it's discounting, i certainly keep a close eye on how things progress for my family. i think questions arise though when the unvaccinated rates are quoted. is it correct to refer to a person that has received at least one dose of vaccine as being unvaccinated?

a study conducted on Veterans Affairs on its patients found that for a single dose of either moderna and pfizer the resulting efficacy was ~85%. the efficacy increased to 95% any time after the second dose and topped out at ~97% seven days after a second dose.

m211577tt2.jpeg


for example in miami dade:

miami dade county itself through August 9th is reporting for its hospitals an ~35% ICU bed usage, ~28% acute bed usage and ~13% of new COVID patients admitted as being vaccinated. see pages 19-21 of the pdf https://www.miamidade.gov/information/library/2021-08-10-covid-dashboard.pdf

the miami herald recently wrote an article on the rise of covid in miami dade county and did a good job of representing data from the above report. the herald also included an interesting graphic charting the age range of the hospital admissions at jackson memorial. the majority of its patients continue to fall within the 50+ age group.

according to CDC data the population of miami dade 18 or older is 75.1% fully vaccinated and 91.7% have had at least one dose of vaccine. 84.4% of people 65+ in miami dade are fully vaccinated and 99.9% have received at least one dose of vaccine.

i think this is were the disconnect lies. about a third of the people being admitted are 65+ and they all have had at least one dose of the vaccine. are they unvaccinated? the VA study might disagree with that assertion.

JHS%2014-day%20age%20trend%20Aug%205%202021.jpg
 
i don't know if it's discounting, i certainly keep a close eye on how things progress for my family. i think questions arise though when the unvaccinated rates are quoted. is it correct to refer to a person that has received at least one dose of vaccine as being unvaccinated?

a study conducted on Veterans Affairs on its patients found that for a single dose of either moderna and pfizer the resulting efficacy was ~85%. the efficacy increased to 95% any time after the second dose and topped out at ~97% seven days after a second dose.

m211577tt2.jpeg


for example in miami dade:

miami dade county itself through August 9th is reporting for its hospitals an ~35% ICU bed usage, ~28% acute bed usage and ~13% of new COVID patients admitted as being vaccinated. see pages 19-21 of the pdf https://www.miamidade.gov/information/library/2021-08-10-covid-dashboard.pdf

the miami herald recently wrote an article on the rise of covid in miami dade county and did a good job of representing data from the above report. the herald also included an interesting graphic charting the age range of the hospital admissions at jackson memorial. the majority of its patients continue to fall within the 50+ age group.

according to CDC data the population of miami dade 18 or older is 75.1% fully vaccinated and 91.7% have had at least one dose of vaccine. 84.4% of people 65+ in miami dade are fully vaccinated and 99.9% have received at least one dose of vaccine.

i think this is were the disconnect lies. about a third of the people being admitted are 65+ and they all have had at least one dose of the vaccine. are they unvaccinated? the VA study might disagree with that assertion.

JHS%2014-day%20age%20trend%20Aug%205%202021.jpg
I get what you’re saying but the VA study was collecting data from the first few months of the year. It’s clear the delta variant is different and that the vaccines are not as effective. Especially if someone only got 1 dose. So the fact that only 1/3 of hospitalizations in Miami Dade are the people who are most susceptible tells you the vaccine is working, albeit probably not at 95% effectiveness. Even if it’s now 70% that’s still very good. This thing is burning thru the population right now.
 
Watch this doctor's testimony in front of a local school board..

Watched 2 minutes of it. He’s blatantly wrong about this virus not being able to proliferate in the summer. There was a surge last summer when things partially opened up around July and that was when hardly anyone was traveling and there were no big events happening. As for the Massachusetts outbreak it obvious people can still test positive and have mild symptoms. But the fact that of those 450 or so people who tested positive only 5 were hospitalized and 0 died is proof enough that it’s working.
 
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I get what you’re saying but the VA study was collecting data from the first few months of the year. It’s clear the delta variant is different and that the vaccines are not as effective. Especially if someone only got 1 dose. So the fact that only 1/3 of hospitalizations in Miami Dade are the people who are most susceptible tells you the vaccine is working, albeit probably not at 95% effectiveness. Even if it’s now 70% that’s still very good. This thing is burning thru the population right now.
one third is the low score. that just represents the people 65+ 99.9% of which have had at least one dose. nearly 92% of all people in miami dade 18+ have had at least one dose. 75% of the people 18+ are fully vaccinated.

over 95% of the people being admitted to hospital in miami dade fall into that 18+ age group.

the chart that the herald provided looked strikingly similar to the positive rates being seen in iceland, a country where the most vulnerable are nearing on 100% vaccinated.


 
The thing is, if 95% of people were vaccinated and then 80% of cases were of vaccinated people that would demonstrate the vaccine is in fact working. Furthermore, the whole issue is deaths and hospitalizations. Iceland is having a “surge” by their standards but literally no one is dying. No one would even care if there were tons of positive covid tests if the hospitals weren’t being strained, thats the whole point of it.
 
The thing is, if 95% of people were vaccinated and then 80% of cases were of vaccinated people that would demonstrate the vaccine is in fact working. Furthermore, the whole issue is deaths and hospitalizations. Iceland is having a “surge” by their standards but literally no one is dying. No one would even care if there were tons of positive covid tests if the hospitals weren’t being strained, thats the whole point of it.
yep. this falls right inline with my agreeance in our conversation last week that the trend in florida is disturbing.

the positive in florida is that the death rate in the 65+ age group has fallen from ~80% to ~65% of overall deaths during the past month. improvement is clearly visible, but the majority of that reduction has been absorbed by the 60-64 and 50-59 age groups thus overall maintaining the marked significance in survival rate for those under 50 vs those 50 and older that has been evident from the start.

it's staggering to consider that in the US age 0-49 accounts for about 30,000 deaths and age 50+ accounts for about 580,000 deaths.
 
At this point, it's about limiting hospitalizations, deaths & mitigating the chances of overwhelming health systems again. Infections may rise again but as long as hospitalizations & deaths are curbed, people getting infected with Covid could just be used for headlines by some outlets. However, people getting infected is still important because the virus can continue to mutate to produce more variants, which will continue to open pandora's box. So reducing spread is still vital.

If you're vaxxed, you can still spread it and you also won't get seriously sick or die from variants. So it's up to you to remain protected with the vaxx or take your chances.

Bottom line for me is: Protect yourself & your families, if you can.
Bottom line for organizations: Protect your org & mitigate liability.

New more dangerous variants could come from the vaccinated. The fact that it is so prevalent in vaccinated people, should give anyone that is thinking for themselves, pause
 
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New more dangerous variants could come from the vaccinated. The fact that it is so prevalent in vaccinated people, should give anyone that is thinking for themselves, pause
What scientific sense does that make? The mutations are coming from the vaccinated? If I made a YouTube video saying the vaccine is highly likely to turn people into actual zombies I’m sure tons of people would believe it.
 
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