Writing this type of column is uncharted territory for me. I've been around the program going back to the mid-80s as a student and the last 20 years as a member of the media. I'm not comfortable writing this stuff but it has to be said.
1. The loss to Boston College was the worst in program history
There have been some epic losses in Florida State’s short football history, but Friday night’s 35-3 setback to Boston College should go down as the program’s all-time worst.
Let’s be honest about it – BC coach Steve Addazio called off the dogs in the fourth quarter, or else the Eagles might have cracked the 50-point mark. And FSU’s offense posting just 38 total yards of offense in the second half against a below-average defense is beyond pathetic (this same defense surrendered 34 points to Wake Forest with Harold Landry in the lineup).
Everybody that follows FSU football is well aware of last year’s 63-20 blowout loss at Louisville. The Tim Tebow-led Florida Gators destroyed the Seminoles three times between 2007-09. And, of course, there’s the 30-0 shutout against Wake Forest in 2006. There also have been other games where FSU suffered a stunning upset or were on the wrong end of a lopsided final score. But there was something very different about Friday night’s wretched performance.
Ask most fans, and they will probably point to the 2006 shutout against Wake Forest as the program’s worst moment. But considering the level of competition, that game doesn’t compare to what happened on Friday. The 2006 Deacons were ranked at the time, finished with an 11-3 record, won the ACC and had nine players drafted from that team, including first-round draft pick Aaron Curry.
Of course, last year’s 43-point shellacking at Louisville is still fresh in everybody’s mind. But we all know that Lamar Jackson would go on to win the Heisman Trophy and that the Cardinals climbed all the way up to No. 3 in the rankings before a late-season swoon. And when all is said and done, several players from the 2016 Louisville team will end up playing in the NFL, including future first-round pick Jackson.
The same can’t be said for the 2017 Boston College team.
Defensive end Harold Landry is the only player from the 2017 squad that is certain to make an NFL squad, and he didn’t even play last Friday. There’s a shot that running back Jon Hilliman could be a late-round pick, but that’s about it in terms of immediate NFL talent. On the other hand, FSU could have up to nine players selected in next spring’s draft.
It gets even worse when you compare recruiting rankings. According to Rivals.com, Boston College’s average team recruiting ranking over the last four years is 59.5, compared to 3.5 for Florida State. On Friday night, there wasn’t a single five-star player on the field for BC, and Hilliman and fellow running back AJ Dillon were the only four-star recruits to play. On FSU’s side of the ball, a whopping nine five-stars and 25 four-star players saw the field.
Even with several devastating injuries suffered by the Seminoles, a 32-point loss simply doesn’t add up when you compare the talent lining up on both sides of the ball.
2. Can Jimbo Fisher reinvent himself and his process like Brian Kelly?
With the current state of the Florida State football program, it’s going to take more than just swapping out a few assistant coaches to turn things around. That’s because something is really, really wrong in Tallahassee.
I get that FSU has been dealt a lousy hand this season – several key injuries, a brutal schedule and being on the wrong end of a couple of heartbreaking, last-minute losses. But none of that comes close to excusing a 2-5 record, or last Friday’s embarrassing 32-point drubbing at the hands of Boston College.
If we look back at history, there are plenty of accomplished coaches who were unable to turn things around once things start going south. Florida State’s fans are intimately familiar with how the program declined during the final Bobby Bowden years. The same scenario played out at LSU with Les Miles, Mack Brown at Texas, Frank Beamer at Virginia Tech and Gene Chizik at Auburn. In all of these cases, the head coaches couldn’t turn things around despite past successes.
There is one recent exception to this rule. After last year’s 4-8 season, Brian Kelly was firmly on the hot seat at Notre Dame. Like FSU with Fisher, Notre Dame had a couple of excellent seasons under Kelly, including a national championship appearance in 2012 and a 10-3 record and Fiesta Bowl appearance in 2015. But things went horribly wrong last season, and Kelly realized he was about to get pushed out unless he orchestrated a massive overhaul of his staff, himself and his program.
That’s exactly what he did, and the turnaround has been dramatic in South Bend. The Irish are 7-1, ranked No. 5 (AP Poll) with the only loss coming by one point against No. 2 Georgia.
And Kelly hasn’t been shy sharing his blueprint for the program’s impressive rebirth. Do yourself a favor and read Pete Thamel’s SI.com story: 'I'm going to make sure that never happens again:’ Inside Brian Kelly's Notre Dame overhaul. Without regurgitating the whole article, Kelly took full responsibility for the team’s failures, conducted 93 player interviews to get their input on what went wrong, hired five new assistant coaches, three new strength coaches, changed the setup of the locker room, switched his approach from being a micromanager to a CEO, and dramatically changed the entire culture of the program.
From the story on Kelly:
Sound familiar?
To put it nicely, Fisher is a control freak that micromanages every aspect of his team. That’s exactly what FSU needed when he took over in 2010. The program was in desperate need of a competent leader that would modernize and overhaul everything from recruiting, to practice habits, to nutrition, strength training and so on. And with Fisher’s oversight and direction, these changes had a dramatic positive impact as evidenced by FSU’s three conference championships and a national championship in 2013.
But once the program reestablished itself, Fisher should have delegated more of his duties and realized that what happened in the past doesn’t necessarily translate in the future. Despite declining performances at wide receiver, offensive line and defense, several assistant coaches were given the benefit of the doubt based on either loyalty or past successes. It was obvious to anyone who paid attention that the train was starting to come off the rails as early as 2014. And in 2015 and 2016, it became painfully obvious that the program was on shaky ground without Jameis Winston running the offense and absent a competent defensive coordinator.
Instead of making the necessary changes when the signs of decline were there, Fisher kept telling anyone who would listen that they just had to work harder to correct mistakes and trust the process. That trust in the process has blown up in his face and placed the whole program on the brink.
But as Brian Kelly proved, a quick turnaround is possible. However, to accomplish that feat, Fisher will need to swallow his pride, forget about loyalty and follow the blueprint laid out at Notre Dame. However, I honestly don’t know if Fisher is capable of putting himself through a similar personal makeover.
3. Should Jimbo Fisher consider stepping down?
At first blush, suggesting that an accomplished head coach step down after one disastrous season seems like an excessive knee-jerk reaction. But with the unique circumstance that is Florida State in 2017, it’s something that should at least be considered.
As pointed out above, the history of previously successful coaches turning around a declining program are rare. However, Brian Kelly provided it can be done if, and only if, the coach is capable of swallowing his pride and completely reinventing himself as well as his program. If Fisher can look in the mirror and commit himself to following a similar path with a complete personal and program overhaul, then that’s exactly the path he should take. However, if he’s honest with himself and concludes that his personality won’t allow him to undertake a similar makeover, then he may be better off starting anew somewhere else.
There’s also the personal factor to be considered. To anyone who has seen Fisher lately, he often looks tired, haggard and worn out. That’s not surprising considering the stress he’s been under and the fact that he is a fanatical workaholic. We’ve been told that late nights at the office are the norm and that it’s not uncommon for him to pull all-nighters. While his dedication to the job is admirable, working these ridiculous hours for a 52-year old is too much to ask of anyone.
Unfortunately, being the head coach of a major football program does not allow for leaves of absence or extended vacations. Since these options are off the table, stepping down to take time off to reevaluate what he wants to do may be exactly what he needs both personally and professionally. With a whopping $37 million buyout, it’s impractical for FSU to push him out even if the school wanted to, but I’m sure that Fisher and the administration could come to a compromise should he decide to step aside.
4. Time for a youth movement
It has become patently obvious that many of the veteran players have checked out. Some may be biding their time until the NFL Combine, and others may just be beaten down by the incredibly disappointing season and heartbreaking losses. Either way, there isn’t much of a point of continuing to roll these players out every Saturday with little upside to their presence on the field.
In fact, when it comes to the NFL prospects, is it worth risking injury when all the season’s goals are off the table in the middle of a 2-5 season? This is especially the case on defense where up to six players could be selected in next spring’s NFL draft. After his lackluster performances the past few weeks, what’s the point of Tarvarus McFadden continuing to return punts or playing every down on defense? All signs point to Stanford Samuels III starting at cornerback next season, so it makes sense to get him as much playing time as possible to prepare him for 2018. Same goes for Derwin James and Hamsah Nasirildeen. Many insiders have hold me that Nasirildeen may be more talented than James and has a bigger upside. Even if that’s an exaggeration, why not give him dramatically more reps on defense during the final third of the season?
The same goes with linebacker and defensive line. Every starting linebacker will graduate after this season, and three of the four starting defensive linemen could be gone as well. The good news is that Florida State has recruited extremely well at these positions over the last couple years. All these young players need is experience, and that may be the only thing of value left for the 2017 season to offer.
I’m not advocating benching every single veteran starter, but at the very least, these younger players should get dramatically increased playing time down the stretch. The positives far outweigh the negatives, and it will better prepare FSU for a desperately needed bounce-back season in 2018.
5. Stat Wrap
NEGATIVES:
* No. 113 in total offense averaging 335.6 yards a game.
* No. 96 in rushing offense at 134.7 yards per game.
* No. 92 in pass efficiency offense.
* No. 123 in scoring offense averaging 17.4 points a game (dead last among all P5 teams!).
* No. 102 in third down conversions at 34.4%.
* No. 126 in turnover margin at -1.43 per game (last among all P5 teams).
* No. 123 in red-zone offense (touchdowns). FSU scores a touchdown when in the red zone just 40.9 percent of the time (second to last among all P5 schools).
* No. 128 in red-zone defense (second to last among all P5 schools).
* No. 105 in total sacks.
* No. 99 in sacks allowed (3.6 per game).
* No. 124 in tackles for loss allowed at 8.1 per game.
POSITIVES:
* No. 7 in kickoff returns (26.6 yards per return).
1. The loss to Boston College was the worst in program history
There have been some epic losses in Florida State’s short football history, but Friday night’s 35-3 setback to Boston College should go down as the program’s all-time worst.
Let’s be honest about it – BC coach Steve Addazio called off the dogs in the fourth quarter, or else the Eagles might have cracked the 50-point mark. And FSU’s offense posting just 38 total yards of offense in the second half against a below-average defense is beyond pathetic (this same defense surrendered 34 points to Wake Forest with Harold Landry in the lineup).
Everybody that follows FSU football is well aware of last year’s 63-20 blowout loss at Louisville. The Tim Tebow-led Florida Gators destroyed the Seminoles three times between 2007-09. And, of course, there’s the 30-0 shutout against Wake Forest in 2006. There also have been other games where FSU suffered a stunning upset or were on the wrong end of a lopsided final score. But there was something very different about Friday night’s wretched performance.
Ask most fans, and they will probably point to the 2006 shutout against Wake Forest as the program’s worst moment. But considering the level of competition, that game doesn’t compare to what happened on Friday. The 2006 Deacons were ranked at the time, finished with an 11-3 record, won the ACC and had nine players drafted from that team, including first-round draft pick Aaron Curry.
Of course, last year’s 43-point shellacking at Louisville is still fresh in everybody’s mind. But we all know that Lamar Jackson would go on to win the Heisman Trophy and that the Cardinals climbed all the way up to No. 3 in the rankings before a late-season swoon. And when all is said and done, several players from the 2016 Louisville team will end up playing in the NFL, including future first-round pick Jackson.
The same can’t be said for the 2017 Boston College team.
Defensive end Harold Landry is the only player from the 2017 squad that is certain to make an NFL squad, and he didn’t even play last Friday. There’s a shot that running back Jon Hilliman could be a late-round pick, but that’s about it in terms of immediate NFL talent. On the other hand, FSU could have up to nine players selected in next spring’s draft.
It gets even worse when you compare recruiting rankings. According to Rivals.com, Boston College’s average team recruiting ranking over the last four years is 59.5, compared to 3.5 for Florida State. On Friday night, there wasn’t a single five-star player on the field for BC, and Hilliman and fellow running back AJ Dillon were the only four-star recruits to play. On FSU’s side of the ball, a whopping nine five-stars and 25 four-star players saw the field.
Even with several devastating injuries suffered by the Seminoles, a 32-point loss simply doesn’t add up when you compare the talent lining up on both sides of the ball.
2. Can Jimbo Fisher reinvent himself and his process like Brian Kelly?
With the current state of the Florida State football program, it’s going to take more than just swapping out a few assistant coaches to turn things around. That’s because something is really, really wrong in Tallahassee.
I get that FSU has been dealt a lousy hand this season – several key injuries, a brutal schedule and being on the wrong end of a couple of heartbreaking, last-minute losses. But none of that comes close to excusing a 2-5 record, or last Friday’s embarrassing 32-point drubbing at the hands of Boston College.
If we look back at history, there are plenty of accomplished coaches who were unable to turn things around once things start going south. Florida State’s fans are intimately familiar with how the program declined during the final Bobby Bowden years. The same scenario played out at LSU with Les Miles, Mack Brown at Texas, Frank Beamer at Virginia Tech and Gene Chizik at Auburn. In all of these cases, the head coaches couldn’t turn things around despite past successes.
There is one recent exception to this rule. After last year’s 4-8 season, Brian Kelly was firmly on the hot seat at Notre Dame. Like FSU with Fisher, Notre Dame had a couple of excellent seasons under Kelly, including a national championship appearance in 2012 and a 10-3 record and Fiesta Bowl appearance in 2015. But things went horribly wrong last season, and Kelly realized he was about to get pushed out unless he orchestrated a massive overhaul of his staff, himself and his program.
That’s exactly what he did, and the turnaround has been dramatic in South Bend. The Irish are 7-1, ranked No. 5 (AP Poll) with the only loss coming by one point against No. 2 Georgia.
And Kelly hasn’t been shy sharing his blueprint for the program’s impressive rebirth. Do yourself a favor and read Pete Thamel’s SI.com story: 'I'm going to make sure that never happens again:’ Inside Brian Kelly's Notre Dame overhaul. Without regurgitating the whole article, Kelly took full responsibility for the team’s failures, conducted 93 player interviews to get their input on what went wrong, hired five new assistant coaches, three new strength coaches, changed the setup of the locker room, switched his approach from being a micromanager to a CEO, and dramatically changed the entire culture of the program.
From the story on Kelly:
He’s divorced himself from the day-to-day running of the offensive staff—no small adjustment for an offensive guru—and gotten back into the daily lives of his players.
Sound familiar?
To put it nicely, Fisher is a control freak that micromanages every aspect of his team. That’s exactly what FSU needed when he took over in 2010. The program was in desperate need of a competent leader that would modernize and overhaul everything from recruiting, to practice habits, to nutrition, strength training and so on. And with Fisher’s oversight and direction, these changes had a dramatic positive impact as evidenced by FSU’s three conference championships and a national championship in 2013.
But once the program reestablished itself, Fisher should have delegated more of his duties and realized that what happened in the past doesn’t necessarily translate in the future. Despite declining performances at wide receiver, offensive line and defense, several assistant coaches were given the benefit of the doubt based on either loyalty or past successes. It was obvious to anyone who paid attention that the train was starting to come off the rails as early as 2014. And in 2015 and 2016, it became painfully obvious that the program was on shaky ground without Jameis Winston running the offense and absent a competent defensive coordinator.
Instead of making the necessary changes when the signs of decline were there, Fisher kept telling anyone who would listen that they just had to work harder to correct mistakes and trust the process. That trust in the process has blown up in his face and placed the whole program on the brink.
But as Brian Kelly proved, a quick turnaround is possible. However, to accomplish that feat, Fisher will need to swallow his pride, forget about loyalty and follow the blueprint laid out at Notre Dame. However, I honestly don’t know if Fisher is capable of putting himself through a similar personal makeover.
3. Should Jimbo Fisher consider stepping down?
At first blush, suggesting that an accomplished head coach step down after one disastrous season seems like an excessive knee-jerk reaction. But with the unique circumstance that is Florida State in 2017, it’s something that should at least be considered.
As pointed out above, the history of previously successful coaches turning around a declining program are rare. However, Brian Kelly provided it can be done if, and only if, the coach is capable of swallowing his pride and completely reinventing himself as well as his program. If Fisher can look in the mirror and commit himself to following a similar path with a complete personal and program overhaul, then that’s exactly the path he should take. However, if he’s honest with himself and concludes that his personality won’t allow him to undertake a similar makeover, then he may be better off starting anew somewhere else.
There’s also the personal factor to be considered. To anyone who has seen Fisher lately, he often looks tired, haggard and worn out. That’s not surprising considering the stress he’s been under and the fact that he is a fanatical workaholic. We’ve been told that late nights at the office are the norm and that it’s not uncommon for him to pull all-nighters. While his dedication to the job is admirable, working these ridiculous hours for a 52-year old is too much to ask of anyone.
Unfortunately, being the head coach of a major football program does not allow for leaves of absence or extended vacations. Since these options are off the table, stepping down to take time off to reevaluate what he wants to do may be exactly what he needs both personally and professionally. With a whopping $37 million buyout, it’s impractical for FSU to push him out even if the school wanted to, but I’m sure that Fisher and the administration could come to a compromise should he decide to step aside.
4. Time for a youth movement
It has become patently obvious that many of the veteran players have checked out. Some may be biding their time until the NFL Combine, and others may just be beaten down by the incredibly disappointing season and heartbreaking losses. Either way, there isn’t much of a point of continuing to roll these players out every Saturday with little upside to their presence on the field.
In fact, when it comes to the NFL prospects, is it worth risking injury when all the season’s goals are off the table in the middle of a 2-5 season? This is especially the case on defense where up to six players could be selected in next spring’s NFL draft. After his lackluster performances the past few weeks, what’s the point of Tarvarus McFadden continuing to return punts or playing every down on defense? All signs point to Stanford Samuels III starting at cornerback next season, so it makes sense to get him as much playing time as possible to prepare him for 2018. Same goes for Derwin James and Hamsah Nasirildeen. Many insiders have hold me that Nasirildeen may be more talented than James and has a bigger upside. Even if that’s an exaggeration, why not give him dramatically more reps on defense during the final third of the season?
The same goes with linebacker and defensive line. Every starting linebacker will graduate after this season, and three of the four starting defensive linemen could be gone as well. The good news is that Florida State has recruited extremely well at these positions over the last couple years. All these young players need is experience, and that may be the only thing of value left for the 2017 season to offer.
I’m not advocating benching every single veteran starter, but at the very least, these younger players should get dramatically increased playing time down the stretch. The positives far outweigh the negatives, and it will better prepare FSU for a desperately needed bounce-back season in 2018.
5. Stat Wrap
NEGATIVES:
* No. 113 in total offense averaging 335.6 yards a game.
* No. 96 in rushing offense at 134.7 yards per game.
* No. 92 in pass efficiency offense.
* No. 123 in scoring offense averaging 17.4 points a game (dead last among all P5 teams!).
* No. 102 in third down conversions at 34.4%.
* No. 126 in turnover margin at -1.43 per game (last among all P5 teams).
* No. 123 in red-zone offense (touchdowns). FSU scores a touchdown when in the red zone just 40.9 percent of the time (second to last among all P5 schools).
* No. 128 in red-zone defense (second to last among all P5 schools).
* No. 105 in total sacks.
* No. 99 in sacks allowed (3.6 per game).
* No. 124 in tackles for loss allowed at 8.1 per game.
POSITIVES:
* No. 7 in kickoff returns (26.6 yards per return).
Last edited:
