Take 1: Has FSU lived on smoke and mirrors since the 2013 season?
After losing to North Carolina on Saturday, Florida State finds itself ranked outside the top 20 for the first time since 2011. But that was a very different team with very different players. According to the Rivals.com rankings, there are a whopping five five-star and 19 four-star players currently on the Seminole defense. Despite all that talent on paper, the defense ranks No. 94 in total defense and No. 105 in scoring defense. Worse, FSU is just 5-5 versus FBS competition in its last 10 games.
Signs of this recent decline were evident a couple years ago, but some odd circumstances made it difficult to identify at the time. During the 2014-15 seasons, the Seminoles posted an impressive 23-4 record and continued their dominance over in-state rivals Florida and Miami. However, something wasn’t quite right back then, and in hindsight we probably should have seen the danger signs.
2014 Season: If you remember, this was the team that was supposed to be better than the 2013 squad that won the national championship. That group finished the year at 13-1, but it took near divine intervention to obtain that lofty record. FSU trailed 10 times during that season, but the ‘Noles were able to mount amazing comebacks in nine of those 10 games. Led by the top quarterback in college football, the ‘Noles erased three second-half double-digit deficits and turned them into improbable victories. In three games, it took near miracles (Louisville, Miami and Notre Dame) with fluky plays or bizarre circumstances for FSU to escape with a victory. If not for some incredibly lucky bounces, not to mention having Jameis Winston to bail the team out time and time again, this could have been a three- or four-loss season.
2015 Season: Florida State managed a respectable 10-3 record in what was supposed to a rebuilding season. However, most of those wins came against incredibly weak competition. The non-conference slate included Texas State, UT-Chattanooga and a USF team that was coming off a 4-8 season. The Seminoles also had a very favorable in-conference schedule with Wake Forest (1-7 ACC), Boston College (0-8 ACC), Syracuse (2-6 ACC) and N.C. State (2-5). For all intents and purposes, seven of the 10 wins were essentially guaranteed wins. For the other three, FSU caught Louisville early with Lamar Jackson making just his third career start, had to rally to defeat a Miami team that fired its coach, and the ‘Noles beat a down-and-out Florida team with no offense. Football stats guru Jeff Sagarin ranked FSU’s 2015 schedule the 51st toughest in 2015, and that was probably being generous. All in all, FSU was 1-2 against top-30 competition that season.
Point is, if not for some incredible breaks and comebacks in 2014 and a very easy schedule in 2015, we might have seen FSU’s current struggles coming a mile away.
Take 2: Defense even worse than numbers suggest
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Yup, going to pile on the defense again. It’s hard not to when FSU is giving up over 35 points per game and ranks in the 90s or higher in five different statistical categories.
The scary thing is that the defense is probably worse than these numbers say.
Florida State’s offense has done a tremendous job of controlling the ball this season. At the same time, opposing offenses typically score quickly. As a result, FSU ranks fifth nationally in time of possession, averaging over 36 minutes a game. That’s not an accident. By controlling the time of possession, Jimbo Fisher knows opposing offenses will get fewer opportunities to move the football and score points.
One statistic that more accurately assesses the Seminole defense is points per play. Florida State ranks No. 124 out of 128 FBS teams in this category, giving up 0.633 points on each snap by its opponent. Only Texas State, Bowling Green, Charlotte and Marshall are below FSU in his ranking. Those four teams are a combined 1-13 vs. FBS competition.
The other statistical category that gives a more realistic picture of FSU’s defense is opponent yards per play. Through the first five games, which includes an FCS opponent, the ‘Noles rank No. 122, giving up 7.1 yard per play – that’s 2.5 more yards per play compared to 2015. And over the last three games, the Seminoles are No. 127 out of 128 teams surrendering 7.7 yards per play.
Take 3: Time to bench for non-effort
There have been a couple plays this season where a defensive player or players appear to be loafing or not giving full effort. Here’s one of the latest examples that has been making the rounds on social media. Keep in mind that this play didn’t happen early or when the game was out of reach, but when the score was tied late in the game.
Fisher specifically addressed this play during his Monday interview on Wake Up Warchant.
“We will run them and punish them for that and do the things we do.” Said Fisher. “They thought the tackle was made and that was very uncharacteristic because it was by a couple of guys that usually bust their tail in everything they do. They allowed that touchdown to be made and that’s unacceptable. (Lack of) effort is something that’s unacceptable, that has nothing to do with ability. That cannot happen.”
It’s encouraging that the lack of effort was identified and that the players will be punished. However, Fisher didn’t say whether these players would be benched. I do think it would send a strong message to sit players when they clearly show a lack of effort on plays and put in backups that are willing to go all out on every play.
The primary goals of the ACC Championship and the College Football Playoff are gone so why not go with less experienced players that are willing to play all-out? Send a message to the players that aren’t playing hard every down and reward those that are willing to fight on every play.
Take 4: Time for some tough decisions
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I didn’t want to post my Five Takes without addressing what are going to be some very difficult decisions ahead for this program. No matter how you slice it, this defense has been an absolute dumpster fire. Jimbo Fisher spent a lot of time addressing offensive shortcomings in Saturday’s postgame press conference, but the offense really isn’t the issue here. Redshirt freshman quarterback Deondre Francois is progressing as he should, Dalvin Cook is running with conviction again, and even the offensive line has shown improvement the last couple weeks.
Problem is there has been zero progress on the other side of the football.
I really don’t know what the answer is, and not sure anybody really does. However, what is certain is something significant has to happen to shake things up or there’s every reason to expect more of the same over the next seven or eight games.
Bill Miller is the only other coach on the staff with any defensive coordinator experience. However, he's probably not a viable option based on how the linebackers have performed, and you probably aren’t going to be able to hire anybody midseason. So Fisher has to be creative in coming up with a solution. Maybe that’s him delegating more of the offense to Randy Sanders and taking a more active role on the other side of the ball when it comes to both preparations and calling plays for the defense during games.
One thing is certain, staying the course isn’t a viable solution. Fisher has to make some fundamental changes or the rest of the season, and possibly beyond, could spiral downward.
Take 5: Stat Wrap – Week Five
* After five weeks, Florida State ranks in the top 20 in the following categories: Total offense (17), rushing offense (20), turnover margin (6), red-zone offense (8), punt returns (4) and time of possession (5).
* In the not-so-good category, FSU ranks No. 94 in total defense, No. 92 in rush defense, No. 115 in pass efficiency defense, No. 105 in scoring defense, No. 102 in third-down conversion defense, No. 108 in net punting, No. 110 in sacks allowed (16), and No. 118 in penalties per game (9.2).
* Individually, Jesus Wilson is No. 4 in punt returns, averaging 20.4 yards per return.
* Freshman Ricky Aguayo is No. 10 in scoring, averaging 11.4 points a game.
* Senior defensive end DeMarcus Walker is No. 3 in the nation in sacks with 6.5.
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