Was checking out Warchant's 2014 preseason roundtable for fun and came across the exhange below. Should be interesting fodder for those of you who like to debate whether a one loss FSU can make it into the CFP. Obviously, since last year was the first year of the CFB, these guys couldn't of known about "game control," quality loss," etc. Just thought I'd share.
"Q: It's tough to predict the national championship picture since the winner, for the first time, will have to go through a four-team playoff. But let's go on the record with this: How sure are you that FSU at least gets into the playoff?
Powell: I'm about 70 percent sure that FSU makes the playoffs even with one loss. The only wiggle room I'm leaving is if someone from the Coastal Division unfathomably becomes a powerhouse and manages to knock FSU off in the ACC Title game - something that's obviously a long shot.
Gene: Definitely better than 50-50, and if pressed I'd probably say about 60-65 percent. Vegas puts FSU's over-under for regular-season wins at 11.5. That tells me there's basically a 50-50 shot at FSU running the table in the first 12 games. Absent an upset by a Coastal Division foe in the conference championship game, the 'Noles are a lock for the final four if they finish undefeated, and would probably be the No. 1 seed. What gets interesting is that with a four-team playoff, a loss isn't as devastating as it used to be to a team's title hopes. That's especially true when you have a good strength of schedule (check), start the season ranked highly so you don't fall far in the rankings with a loss (check) and have a team with some buzz around it (check), which should be the case for FSU considering it's the defending national champion and has the best player in college football under center.
Ben: Florida State will make the playoff this year. I've been on record before as saying that I believe the Seminoles will drop a regular-season game somewhere along the way, but I think they'll still be among the four teams in the running for the national championship. The only thing that could trip FSU up is if its only loss is to another one-loss team on the cusp of the playoff. In that case, there may only be room for one team, and a head-to-head loss with another candidate might be difficult to overcome. Florida State's national championship hopes should still be alive on New Year's Eve.
Ira: I'm with Ben. It's almost impossible to believe the Seminoles are going to put together back-to-back undefeated seasons, but I don't think it matters. A one-loss FSU team will most certainly make the playoff, assuming that loss doesn't take place in the ACC title game - and I'm not willing to even consider that possibility. Barring some unexpected calamity (rash of injuries, etc.), I fully expect FSU will be in the semifinals and the odds-on pick to win it all."
Source: https://floridastate.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1665714&PT=4&PR=2
"Q: It's tough to predict the national championship picture since the winner, for the first time, will have to go through a four-team playoff. But let's go on the record with this: How sure are you that FSU at least gets into the playoff?
Powell: I'm about 70 percent sure that FSU makes the playoffs even with one loss. The only wiggle room I'm leaving is if someone from the Coastal Division unfathomably becomes a powerhouse and manages to knock FSU off in the ACC Title game - something that's obviously a long shot.
Gene: Definitely better than 50-50, and if pressed I'd probably say about 60-65 percent. Vegas puts FSU's over-under for regular-season wins at 11.5. That tells me there's basically a 50-50 shot at FSU running the table in the first 12 games. Absent an upset by a Coastal Division foe in the conference championship game, the 'Noles are a lock for the final four if they finish undefeated, and would probably be the No. 1 seed. What gets interesting is that with a four-team playoff, a loss isn't as devastating as it used to be to a team's title hopes. That's especially true when you have a good strength of schedule (check), start the season ranked highly so you don't fall far in the rankings with a loss (check) and have a team with some buzz around it (check), which should be the case for FSU considering it's the defending national champion and has the best player in college football under center.
Ben: Florida State will make the playoff this year. I've been on record before as saying that I believe the Seminoles will drop a regular-season game somewhere along the way, but I think they'll still be among the four teams in the running for the national championship. The only thing that could trip FSU up is if its only loss is to another one-loss team on the cusp of the playoff. In that case, there may only be room for one team, and a head-to-head loss with another candidate might be difficult to overcome. Florida State's national championship hopes should still be alive on New Year's Eve.
Ira: I'm with Ben. It's almost impossible to believe the Seminoles are going to put together back-to-back undefeated seasons, but I don't think it matters. A one-loss FSU team will most certainly make the playoff, assuming that loss doesn't take place in the ACC title game - and I'm not willing to even consider that possibility. Barring some unexpected calamity (rash of injuries, etc.), I fully expect FSU will be in the semifinals and the odds-on pick to win it all."
Source: https://floridastate.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1665714&PT=4&PR=2
