This is a long post, and more could be said, but something I haven’t seen discussed/considered that can give a better picture of what is possibly in play that will be a determining factor in how this all shakes out. There are a lot of variables and possibilities, but one critical factor...matchups.
A lot of assumptions are being made in this post on how the SEC and ACC will align their conferences and schedule games, but still gives a good idea of what each can provide in terms of matchups within their conferences.
Most have focused on $$$, but haven’t, IMO, factored in the value of exposure through games being aired and weekly commentary. Those things directly impact recruiting, the arms race, total strength of the conferences (all sports) and circles back around to what most want to talk about….MONEY. Matchups come first.
With conference realignment still occurring, we don’t know yet what the playoff picture will look like. We don’t know if pods will be implemented, conferences go to 8 or 9 game in-conference schedules, if we lose more OOC rivalries, etc. A lot can change in the future, to include more conference raiding, merging, alliances, and what other services (networks and streaming) get involved and to what degree, etc.
Here’s a look at what each conference can provide in terms of match ups based on what we know as of today.
SEC
West
UT
A&M
OU
Arkansas
Missouri
LSU
OM
MSU
East
UF
UGa
USCe
Tenn
Vandy
Kentucky
Alabama
Auburn
Prime Time West Matchups
UT vs A&M
UT vs OU
UT vs LSU
OU vs A&M
OU vs LSU
A&M vs LSU
Prime Time East Matchups
UF vs UGa
UF vs Alabama
UF vs Auburn
UGa vs Alabama
UGa vs Auburn
Alabama vs Auburn
ACC
Coastal
Clemson
FSU
NCST
BC
UofL
WF
Syracuse
Atlantic
UNC
Miami
Pitt
GT
VT
UVa
Duke
Notre Dame
5 ACC games
Prime Time Coastal Matchups
FSU vs Clemson
Prime Time Atlantic Matchups
UNC vs Miami
Prime Time Notre Dame ACC Matchups (POTENTIAL)
ND vs Clemson
ND vs FSU
ND vs UNC
ND vs Miami
SEC = 12
ACC = 6 (With Notre Dame maximized)
That’s not counting the above schools playing cross-division games, but as you can see, the SEC has a total of 8 marquee schools compared to the ACC’s 4, plus Notre Dame’s half schedule that would have to be maximized to the fullest. There’s simply no comparison between the two conferences. The ACC can’t even help itself, while the SEC does everything right.
This means that the SEC will receive far more prime time game channels and TV time slots compared to the ACC. Not including the weekly commentary. And it will be justified.
If you were to rank the bottom half of each conference, it gets even worse for the ACC. Meaning, again, the SEC will receive far more better secondary game channels and TV time slots compared to the ACC. Not including the weekly commentary.
Now, add in the 50% share ESPN has of the B10.
B10
East
OSU
Michigan
PSU
MSU
IU
Rutgers
Maryland
West
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Nebraska
Iowa
NW
Illinois
Purdue
Prime Time East Matchups
OSU vs Michigan
OSU vs PSU
OSU vs MSU
Michigan vs PSU
Michigan vs MSU
PSU vs MSU
Prime Time West Matchups
Wisconsin vs Iowa
Wisconsin vs Minnesota
Wisconsin vs Nebraska
Iowa vs Minnesota
Iowa vs Nebraska
Minnesota vs Nebraska
**NW could be included based on last year’s result. Either replacing someone above or added to the above.
** Was a little generous with their west division.
There’s between 8 to 12 more marquee matchups for the ACC to compete with in terms of game slots and weekly commentary. This, of course, does not include the PAC, but did not include them because they aren’t owned by ESPN (yet). The PAC, however, has a large number of medium tier teams (not too bottom heavy like the ACC). They also have a good number of schools with marquee level ability (USCw, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, etc.).
So, how much oxygen does the ACC get with all of those marquee matchups in the room? How does that impact $$$ now and going forward?
The additions of UT and OU to the SEC have taken up even more oxygen. The ACC will certainly suffer, but so will the B10 and PAC. That’s if you believe ESPN is going to protect its most valuable asset ($300+ million for just the SEC GOW).
If you are a school (FSU, Clemson, OSU, Michigan, PSU, Wisconsin, USCw, Oregon, Washington, ASU, etc.) that believes you have value, belong with the best of the best and want to remain relevant (in the national scene on TV and radio), to include the money that exposure can gain you, it’d seem like you’d want to be part of what ESPN is cooking.
For some, the only other option would be to hitch your wagon to the currently non-SEC schools and get a contract with ESPN’s network rivals (Fox, NBC, etc.) in order to compete, but that is all pretty risky. ESPN seems like the safe bet.
I think ESPN’s next move is to use it’s leverage (channels and time slots and total weekly platform) to weaken the rest until they get who they want. That likely includes an AAC tier 2 division that pays similarly to what schools are earning now in the non-SEC and B10 P5 conferences. Meaning, schools may not receive less, just not anything remotely close to the elite schools. That tier 2 mega-division could be quite entertaining too.
It is either that (one ESPN mega-conference) or ESPN’s mega-SEC and the B10’s mega conference. With each dismantling the ACC and PAC strategically. Possibly working together to do so. I think, however, ESPN wants it all (everyone’s best schools and control of the tier 2 mega conference).
And if ESPN wants to go all-in on the SEC, then they can weaken the B10 by not bidding on their upcoming renewal, most likely reducing whatever payout they would receive from Fox or whomever (Amazon?). If that outlook was bleak for OSU, Michigan, PSU, etc then they may decide to jump on board with a northern expansion of the SEC. Some of the chosen PAC schools too in a western expansion. At that point, ESPN drops “SEC” and gives the new conference a more appealing, all encompassing national title.
Regardless of how it shakes out, one thing is certain in my mind...the SEC is going to dominate the national scene through ESPN and the high majority of the ACC is going to be an afterthought. History bares that out and has gotten us to the SEC $300+ million GOW contract and the ACC's current payouts. Why would anyone think things are going to reverse course?
A lot of assumptions are being made in this post on how the SEC and ACC will align their conferences and schedule games, but still gives a good idea of what each can provide in terms of matchups within their conferences.
Most have focused on $$$, but haven’t, IMO, factored in the value of exposure through games being aired and weekly commentary. Those things directly impact recruiting, the arms race, total strength of the conferences (all sports) and circles back around to what most want to talk about….MONEY. Matchups come first.
With conference realignment still occurring, we don’t know yet what the playoff picture will look like. We don’t know if pods will be implemented, conferences go to 8 or 9 game in-conference schedules, if we lose more OOC rivalries, etc. A lot can change in the future, to include more conference raiding, merging, alliances, and what other services (networks and streaming) get involved and to what degree, etc.
Here’s a look at what each conference can provide in terms of match ups based on what we know as of today.
SEC
West
UT
A&M
OU
Arkansas
Missouri
LSU
OM
MSU
East
UF
UGa
USCe
Tenn
Vandy
Kentucky
Alabama
Auburn
Prime Time West Matchups
UT vs A&M
UT vs OU
UT vs LSU
OU vs A&M
OU vs LSU
A&M vs LSU
Prime Time East Matchups
UF vs UGa
UF vs Alabama
UF vs Auburn
UGa vs Alabama
UGa vs Auburn
Alabama vs Auburn
ACC
Coastal
Clemson
FSU
NCST
BC
UofL
WF
Syracuse
Atlantic
UNC
Miami
Pitt
GT
VT
UVa
Duke
Notre Dame
5 ACC games
Prime Time Coastal Matchups
FSU vs Clemson
Prime Time Atlantic Matchups
UNC vs Miami
Prime Time Notre Dame ACC Matchups (POTENTIAL)
ND vs Clemson
ND vs FSU
ND vs UNC
ND vs Miami
SEC = 12
ACC = 6 (With Notre Dame maximized)
That’s not counting the above schools playing cross-division games, but as you can see, the SEC has a total of 8 marquee schools compared to the ACC’s 4, plus Notre Dame’s half schedule that would have to be maximized to the fullest. There’s simply no comparison between the two conferences. The ACC can’t even help itself, while the SEC does everything right.
This means that the SEC will receive far more prime time game channels and TV time slots compared to the ACC. Not including the weekly commentary. And it will be justified.
If you were to rank the bottom half of each conference, it gets even worse for the ACC. Meaning, again, the SEC will receive far more better secondary game channels and TV time slots compared to the ACC. Not including the weekly commentary.
Now, add in the 50% share ESPN has of the B10.
B10
East
OSU
Michigan
PSU
MSU
IU
Rutgers
Maryland
West
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Nebraska
Iowa
NW
Illinois
Purdue
Prime Time East Matchups
OSU vs Michigan
OSU vs PSU
OSU vs MSU
Michigan vs PSU
Michigan vs MSU
PSU vs MSU
Prime Time West Matchups
Wisconsin vs Iowa
Wisconsin vs Minnesota
Wisconsin vs Nebraska
Iowa vs Minnesota
Iowa vs Nebraska
Minnesota vs Nebraska
**NW could be included based on last year’s result. Either replacing someone above or added to the above.
** Was a little generous with their west division.
There’s between 8 to 12 more marquee matchups for the ACC to compete with in terms of game slots and weekly commentary. This, of course, does not include the PAC, but did not include them because they aren’t owned by ESPN (yet). The PAC, however, has a large number of medium tier teams (not too bottom heavy like the ACC). They also have a good number of schools with marquee level ability (USCw, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, etc.).
So, how much oxygen does the ACC get with all of those marquee matchups in the room? How does that impact $$$ now and going forward?
The additions of UT and OU to the SEC have taken up even more oxygen. The ACC will certainly suffer, but so will the B10 and PAC. That’s if you believe ESPN is going to protect its most valuable asset ($300+ million for just the SEC GOW).
If you are a school (FSU, Clemson, OSU, Michigan, PSU, Wisconsin, USCw, Oregon, Washington, ASU, etc.) that believes you have value, belong with the best of the best and want to remain relevant (in the national scene on TV and radio), to include the money that exposure can gain you, it’d seem like you’d want to be part of what ESPN is cooking.
For some, the only other option would be to hitch your wagon to the currently non-SEC schools and get a contract with ESPN’s network rivals (Fox, NBC, etc.) in order to compete, but that is all pretty risky. ESPN seems like the safe bet.
I think ESPN’s next move is to use it’s leverage (channels and time slots and total weekly platform) to weaken the rest until they get who they want. That likely includes an AAC tier 2 division that pays similarly to what schools are earning now in the non-SEC and B10 P5 conferences. Meaning, schools may not receive less, just not anything remotely close to the elite schools. That tier 2 mega-division could be quite entertaining too.
It is either that (one ESPN mega-conference) or ESPN’s mega-SEC and the B10’s mega conference. With each dismantling the ACC and PAC strategically. Possibly working together to do so. I think, however, ESPN wants it all (everyone’s best schools and control of the tier 2 mega conference).
And if ESPN wants to go all-in on the SEC, then they can weaken the B10 by not bidding on their upcoming renewal, most likely reducing whatever payout they would receive from Fox or whomever (Amazon?). If that outlook was bleak for OSU, Michigan, PSU, etc then they may decide to jump on board with a northern expansion of the SEC. Some of the chosen PAC schools too in a western expansion. At that point, ESPN drops “SEC” and gives the new conference a more appealing, all encompassing national title.
Regardless of how it shakes out, one thing is certain in my mind...the SEC is going to dominate the national scene through ESPN and the high majority of the ACC is going to be an afterthought. History bares that out and has gotten us to the SEC $300+ million GOW contract and the ACC's current payouts. Why would anyone think things are going to reverse course?
