North Korea and Timing the Stockmarket

[LesClaypool]

So a few months back, I posted that I was thinking of making some short-term investment moves, partially/largely out of concern for the situation in North Korea. I really thought that things would turn more South w/them than they have, and I was sure the market would suffer for it.

Long story short, I moved about 2/3 of my overall retirement assets into cash from stocks.

Since that time the market's run up 10+% overall and today, Kim Jong Un launches a missile into the sea...and the market's up another 1+% on that news.

Lesson (which I already knew better to test anyway) learned - Do NOT time the market. It's a fool's game.

 

[FSUTribe76]

So a few months back, I posted that I was thinking of making some short-term investment moves, partially/largely out of concern for the situation in North Korea. I really thought that things would turn more South w/them than they have, and I was sure the market would suffer for it.

Long story short, I moved about 2/3 of my overall retirement assets into cash from stocks.

Since that time the market's run up 10+% overall and today, Kim Jong Un launches a missile into the sea...and the market's up another 1+% on that news.

Lesson (which I already knew better to test anyway) learned - Do NOT time the market. It's a fool's game.

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

Timing the market is like picking the fast lane at the grocery.

 

[cfbfan23]

Please let us know when you're going to re-balance again.

 

[LesClaypool]

Please let us know when you're going to re-balance again.

Lol - will do!

 

[NDallasRuss]

Lesson (which I already knew better to test anyway) learned - Do NOT time the market. It's a fool's game.

Seems like the odds are just as good to hit the casino.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

I personally think military action is needed in North Korea. I know not all agree.

 

[RTM58]

Better odds

 

[FSUdawg]

Actually the markets were up almost 1% on Brexit news and rumblings the Senate was going to move along the tax bill. Then N.Korea launched a missile and the markets pulled back almost half of their gains. After about an hour it was official that the tax plan had cleared the committee in the Senate, and the missile had landed harmlessly in the ocean, and the markets quickly returned higher finishing the day near their highs.

Considering the run on stocks this year I don't expect the markets to drop in December. Most investors aren't going to leave positions and take profits at the end of the year, and have to pay taxes on those profits in the coming months. Instead they will most likely take the profits in January so the tax bill won't be due for another year...if they have a successful 2018.

 

[SeaPA]

You buy low, and sell high. It’s really quite simple.

 

[helmetnuts]

Nothing but banter..China is tied to us at the hip financially. Their leader already came out and said that if North Korea launches an attack first they will stay out of it (though I'm sure they would still supply them secretly, just not enter into the fray with their own troops). If something does happen the effect to us will be short term though South Korea on the other hand is screwed because if it does ever go down..about half their population lives within 50 miles of the border.

 

[ReliableOstrich]

I personally think military action is needed in North Korea. I know not all agree.

Damn, does Amazon sell a nuclear bomb proof snuggie? Will need that and some of those eclipse glasses to stay cozy and keep the nuclear holocaust out of my eyes.

 

[helmetnuts]

Bacardi..do you actually have a job? You're on here more than me this week!

 

[ReliableOstrich]

Bacardi..do you actually have a job? You're on here more than me this week!

Slow week and this Jimbo thing has me giving WC all my pageviews.

 

[Gonolz]

Two more days of moving up. The market had a big pop today. I am shorting the market and getting my ass handed to me. I don't understand it. In less than 10 years, the market has gone from Armageddon and an end to the world, to almost quadrupling and going up no matter what. Good news, the market goes up. Bad news, the market goes up or stays flat, then goes up. Perhaps the nugget of wisdom that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent would be good advice to take. But I'm a stubborn idiot. I'll tell you all right when I give up and that is when the market will crash, lol.

 

[seminole97]

Two more days of moving up. The market had a big pop today. I am shorting the market and getting my ass handed to me. I don't understand it. In less than 10 years, the market has gone from Armageddon and an end to the world, to almost quadrupling and going up no matter what. Good news, the market goes up. Bad news, the market goes up or stays flat, then goes up. Perhaps the nugget of wisdom that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent would be good advice to take. But I'm a stubborn idiot. I'll tell you all right when I give up and that is when the market will crash, lol.

That's part of what was so amazing about Michael Burry in the Big Short.

What if the inflation by the central banks largely went into 'asset' prices instead of the cost of eggs and a loaf of bread?

"Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." -Keynes