There are many threads going in many directions and many commentators discussing options for various conferences, but the prevailing view is that there is no team that the ACC can reasonably attract to its conference that will not reduce the average revenue per member. Not any of the remaining 8 in the B12, and not Memphis, Cincy, UCF or WVU. There are posts that show the ratings power of all those schools and it's not a pretty picture. Any of them would dilute the ACC. Of course ND is a different story but there are no indications that they feel threatened by recent actions to make a move.
There are also many commentators that point out that the ACC is trapped in the worst TV contract in college football, and they are trapped until 2036 because of the GOR. But some also note that this is not healthy situation, and being trapped by a bad contract will eventually lead to behavior - even bad behavior - to get out of that contract. And while the GOR may seem unbreakable, all you are left with is a conference with several powerful and very cranky members that will consistently look for a way out.
If the SEC and B10 proceed on a scorched earth policy, the likelihood that the ACC eventually breaks up becomes more and more possible. The most marketable and powerful programs will seek a different home, regardless of the GOR. And FSU may end up Ok - or even better. And it's possible that the scorched earth policy will be partnered enough with ESPN that the GOR - which the ESPN insisted that we sign even though they are not a party to it - might be easier to attack under a variety of legal theories (that really don't have to be successful when ESPN is exposed for the role they played in it creation). And poof! The ACC - and all its positive non football assets - go away.
Will there come a point in time that Duke and Wake realize that they won't be in a good place if this happens? Will BC and SU realize that they are not much better off than Duke and Wake? The ratings power of BC and SU are very low. So...here's the plan...what if the 4 of them leave the ACC just for football..get some compensation for doing so..and pick up programs like Army and UConn that are trying to build a more consistent annual football schedule. To help with transition, each member of the 10 team Football ACC agree to play one of the departing 4 each year for 4 years (if the departing 4 want that). The remaining 10 still play an 8 game conference schedule (9 is too much with the annual ACC - SEC games and the ND relationship), and petition the NCAA (if it still exists) to allow a conference champ game (current rules require 12 teams with 2 divisions or 10 teams that play a 9 game round robin).
Basically, the 4 departing teams are treated like Notre Dame. The ACC remains completely intact for all other sports. The UNC-Duke annual football game continues. The golden goose of ACC basketball probably looks even better because it will look more unique.
Many of us (including me in my dark moments) think that the current events put FSU is in a bad place. But there are also commentators out there that insist that although Clemson is very valuable, FSU remains the ACC asset with the most current value and future potential. Sure, FSU needs to be proactive now if there are opportunities with the SEC and the B10. But frankly, FSU can be proactive when appropriate, can also wait this out. And what if Duke and Wake realize this?
I am not saying that the GOR is breakable. I am only saying that Duke and Wake may fear that it's not strong enough to keep the ACC together. They need to save what they value most...and it ain't football.
No one has to be mean about this. College football is changing and we didn't try to make it change. The new world of college football is probably going to be a top tier division that won't include programs like SU, BC, Duke and Wake. And that doesn't mean those 4 programs can't have a meaningful football schedule.
Frankly, these 4 schools will be better off than any other program that gets jettisoned from the Big 12, and they are still better off than any current team in the G5.
And ESPN will have to renegotiate the contract as the ACC will have a very good 10 team conference. Much better than even the current 10 team B12.
There are also many commentators that point out that the ACC is trapped in the worst TV contract in college football, and they are trapped until 2036 because of the GOR. But some also note that this is not healthy situation, and being trapped by a bad contract will eventually lead to behavior - even bad behavior - to get out of that contract. And while the GOR may seem unbreakable, all you are left with is a conference with several powerful and very cranky members that will consistently look for a way out.
If the SEC and B10 proceed on a scorched earth policy, the likelihood that the ACC eventually breaks up becomes more and more possible. The most marketable and powerful programs will seek a different home, regardless of the GOR. And FSU may end up Ok - or even better. And it's possible that the scorched earth policy will be partnered enough with ESPN that the GOR - which the ESPN insisted that we sign even though they are not a party to it - might be easier to attack under a variety of legal theories (that really don't have to be successful when ESPN is exposed for the role they played in it creation). And poof! The ACC - and all its positive non football assets - go away.
Will there come a point in time that Duke and Wake realize that they won't be in a good place if this happens? Will BC and SU realize that they are not much better off than Duke and Wake? The ratings power of BC and SU are very low. So...here's the plan...what if the 4 of them leave the ACC just for football..get some compensation for doing so..and pick up programs like Army and UConn that are trying to build a more consistent annual football schedule. To help with transition, each member of the 10 team Football ACC agree to play one of the departing 4 each year for 4 years (if the departing 4 want that). The remaining 10 still play an 8 game conference schedule (9 is too much with the annual ACC - SEC games and the ND relationship), and petition the NCAA (if it still exists) to allow a conference champ game (current rules require 12 teams with 2 divisions or 10 teams that play a 9 game round robin).
Basically, the 4 departing teams are treated like Notre Dame. The ACC remains completely intact for all other sports. The UNC-Duke annual football game continues. The golden goose of ACC basketball probably looks even better because it will look more unique.
Many of us (including me in my dark moments) think that the current events put FSU is in a bad place. But there are also commentators out there that insist that although Clemson is very valuable, FSU remains the ACC asset with the most current value and future potential. Sure, FSU needs to be proactive now if there are opportunities with the SEC and the B10. But frankly, FSU can be proactive when appropriate, can also wait this out. And what if Duke and Wake realize this?
I am not saying that the GOR is breakable. I am only saying that Duke and Wake may fear that it's not strong enough to keep the ACC together. They need to save what they value most...and it ain't football.
No one has to be mean about this. College football is changing and we didn't try to make it change. The new world of college football is probably going to be a top tier division that won't include programs like SU, BC, Duke and Wake. And that doesn't mean those 4 programs can't have a meaningful football schedule.
Frankly, these 4 schools will be better off than any other program that gets jettisoned from the Big 12, and they are still better off than any current team in the G5.
And ESPN will have to renegotiate the contract as the ACC will have a very good 10 team conference. Much better than even the current 10 team B12.
