Groundhog Says: 6 More Weeks of Winter! NOAA Says: Not So for the Southern U.S.
Dr. Jeff Masters · February 2, 2018
In Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, home of the world's most famous prognosticating rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, gloomy clouds parted before sunrise on Friday morning, allowing Punxsutawney Phil to see his shadow. By tradition, the U.S. can thus expect to see six more weeks of winter. Phil’s fearless prognostication for the remainder of winter, as presented as his official groundhog.org web site, looks like this, then:
Up early this morning
Far from home
Are you searching for the Phil-ospher’s stone?
Well, even my best friends
They don’t know.
Is it an early spring
Or just more snow
My faithful followers,
Your hands (and my paws) are getting cold
So here is my forecast Not lead, but solid gold:
I see my royal Shadow!
Six more weeks of Winter to go!
What the pros say
The latest long-range runs of the GFS and European models and NOAA’s 3 – 4-week temperature forecast agree on a continuation of the cold in the north and warm in the south pattern during February. The latest 3-month forecast for February - April from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society and from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show a similar pattern of cool in the north and warm in the south, but with warmer than average conditions spreading into the Northeast U.S. by March and April. Cold weather tends to shift westward across the northern U.S. as a La Niña winter progresses, so it wouldn’t be too surprising if the rest of the winter trended chillier in the Pacific Northwest and milder in the Northeast.
However, the long-range forecast for late February has more uncertainty than usual. A massive pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently over the Western Pacific. It’s the largest such event in 40 years of recordkeeping for the western Pacific, according to NOAA. As this MJO pulse moves east through the Pacific, it may help drive a chain reaction of events, including severe cold over parts of eastern Canada, very mild air sweeping toward the North Pole, an unusually strong surface cyclone across the Arctic, and a split in the stratospheric polar vortex by mid-February. Computer models have been struggling more than usual in their longer-range forecasts for North America during recent days. In short, we can expect some big weather events over the next several weeks, but where and when they’ll unfold remains uncertain. “Perhaps this enormous tropical signal [the MJO] explains the angst-inducing and soul-crushing volatility of recent model runs,” tweeted Todd Crawford (The Weather Company) on Thursday.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/groundhog-says-6-more-weeks-winter-noaa-says-not-so-southern-us
Dr. Jeff Masters · February 2, 2018
In Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, home of the world's most famous prognosticating rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, gloomy clouds parted before sunrise on Friday morning, allowing Punxsutawney Phil to see his shadow. By tradition, the U.S. can thus expect to see six more weeks of winter. Phil’s fearless prognostication for the remainder of winter, as presented as his official groundhog.org web site, looks like this, then:
Up early this morning
Far from home
Are you searching for the Phil-ospher’s stone?
Well, even my best friends
They don’t know.
Is it an early spring
Or just more snow
My faithful followers,
Your hands (and my paws) are getting cold
So here is my forecast Not lead, but solid gold:
I see my royal Shadow!
Six more weeks of Winter to go!
What the pros say
The latest long-range runs of the GFS and European models and NOAA’s 3 – 4-week temperature forecast agree on a continuation of the cold in the north and warm in the south pattern during February. The latest 3-month forecast for February - April from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society and from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show a similar pattern of cool in the north and warm in the south, but with warmer than average conditions spreading into the Northeast U.S. by March and April. Cold weather tends to shift westward across the northern U.S. as a La Niña winter progresses, so it wouldn’t be too surprising if the rest of the winter trended chillier in the Pacific Northwest and milder in the Northeast.
However, the long-range forecast for late February has more uncertainty than usual. A massive pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently over the Western Pacific. It’s the largest such event in 40 years of recordkeeping for the western Pacific, according to NOAA. As this MJO pulse moves east through the Pacific, it may help drive a chain reaction of events, including severe cold over parts of eastern Canada, very mild air sweeping toward the North Pole, an unusually strong surface cyclone across the Arctic, and a split in the stratospheric polar vortex by mid-February. Computer models have been struggling more than usual in their longer-range forecasts for North America during recent days. In short, we can expect some big weather events over the next several weeks, but where and when they’ll unfold remains uncertain. “Perhaps this enormous tropical signal [the MJO] explains the angst-inducing and soul-crushing volatility of recent model runs,” tweeted Todd Crawford (The Weather Company) on Thursday.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/groundhog-says-6-more-weeks-winter-noaa-says-not-so-southern-us
