Tropical Depression 16 - Now Hurricane Nate
- Thread starter runkpanole
- Start date
Actually, that will keep our streak intact at 7! NATE! NATE! NATE!
Thing is, the stronger side of the storm is always the eastern side. That's why Irma affected Tally so relatively little. while Hermine hit here hard. If even a cat 1 hurricane's eye were to pass near Apalachicola, Tally would take the brunt.
5:00 PM update. Still moving west according to these models.
Still think it will move more west and hopefully will be a tropical storm not a category 1+ hurricane. But that won't be good for you either.Look under the hurricane symbol at 2pmon Sunday and you'll see my house.
Why does anybody bother posting anything that doesn't come from the National Weather Service and/or NOAA? All other news orgs get the same info from them. Updates four times a day with no BS and no speculation and no media hype. It's much simpler, and it's just the facts sometimes with some interesting commentary in the forecast discussion. Stop the "Hurricane Porn". You will sleep better. Four updates per day at 11 and 5 am and pm.
http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=mlb
Click active storms. See the estimated winds. Read the forecasts discussion and ignore all other weather porn.
From today's discussion with a bit of color.
"
Environmental conditions look quite favorable for strengthening over
the next few days, with low shear and very warm and deep water in
the path of the cyclone. The various rapid intensification indices
are all higher than the last cycle, suggesting an increasing chance
of rapid intensification occurring. The fly in the ointment,
however, is all of the potential land interaction, first over
Central America and then possibly over the Yucatan Peninsula. As
a compromise, the intensity forecast is raised considerably from the
previous one during the first 3 days, but is still below some
guidance, such as the HWRF."
http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=mlb
Click active storms. See the estimated winds. Read the forecasts discussion and ignore all other weather porn.
From today's discussion with a bit of color.
"
Environmental conditions look quite favorable for strengthening over
the next few days, with low shear and very warm and deep water in
the path of the cyclone. The various rapid intensification indices
are all higher than the last cycle, suggesting an increasing chance
of rapid intensification occurring. The fly in the ointment,
however, is all of the potential land interaction, first over
Central America and then possibly over the Yucatan Peninsula. As
a compromise, the intensity forecast is raised considerably from the
previous one during the first 3 days, but is still below some
guidance, such as the HWRF."
Nate at 8am. NHC moved the track west significantly. They are basically following the Euro. Both models are showing a much weaker system farther west. NHC is keeping this a hurricane (so far) because they think the warm water and weak shear could allow significant strengthening. If the new model trends are correct, it is good news for north Florida.
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I take heart in the storm being pulled toward the suckage in Baton Rouge. That suckage is clearly stronger than the suckage in Tallahassee.
You're probably actually better off right near the eye's path than toward the east.Look under the hurricane symbol at 2pmon Sunday and you'll see my house.
The projected path moved west far enough overnight that now we're barely in the cone of death
No, just a few comments after looking at forecast models. I'm not even sure how to post images here....lol.
There is no cone of death. This will be a weak hurricane. There were maybe only 30 deaths in the Carribean (sp?) from Irma despite Puerto Rico being leveled.
I guess someone stole what little humor you may have one time possessed.
Irma was responsible for 72 people dying in Florida... bet you were not aware of that.
https://phys.org/news/2017-09-hurricane-irma-death-toll-florida.html
Just a heads up, but I think we will be seeing a Eastern shift to path. Not saying all the way to Tallahassee but this thing seems to be east of where it was supposed to be and recent models have begun moving it east slightly. Something to watch still.
Wasn't really paying attention to this storm and until I realized was flying right into it on Sunday. Now it is a game of chicken on whether or not Delta cancels my flight or not. Went to change my flight and my travel guy said well let's wait until Delta cancels the flight that way there are no additional charges for the changes.
Seeing a lot of chatter about it on various websites. If Nate wants to pay a visit, I hope he slows down and waits until Sunday.
Didn't really come across well. The original poster said there would be a death cone with Nate. I was surprised that there were only 30 deaths from a hurricane that was Cat5 and then Cat4 when it made landfall in Puerto Rico. The point being that a potentially Cat1 hitting the panhandle would not be a "death cone".
