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TS Beryl forms in Central Atlantic

Supposed to fizzle out. Going to run into a dry trough Sunday...
 
...And here we go! If that projected track is accurate, Florida will be in the crosshairs

Huh?

eYYCIYO.png
 
Andrew_1992_track.png


Looking at Andrew's path in retrospect, I'm surprised it didn't curl up the Atlantic coast once it trekked northward before getting to the West Indies.

There was probably a big high pressure system on the eastern seaboard pushing it southward. You can see by the late trajectory that it chased the high into the north Atlantic...
 
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I don't think any of us have anything to worry about due to wind shear:

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-07-06-hurricane-tropical-storm-beryl-atlantic
To be honest, the same was said about Hurricane Andrew

You're good Reed. From Wiki...

Origins
A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on August 14. Under the influence of a ridge of high pressure to its north, the wave tracked quickly westward. An area of convection developed along the wave axis to the south of the Cape Verde islands, and on August 15 meteorologists began classifying the system with the Dvorak technique. The thunderstorm activity became more concentrated, and narrow spiral rainbands developed around a developing center of circulation. Based on a Dvorak T-number of 2.0, it is estimated Tropical Depression Three developed late on August 16 about 1,630 miles (2,620 km) east-southeast of Barbados.[1]


Hurricane Andrew as a Category 5 hurricane near the Bahamas
Embedded within the deep easterlies, the depression tracked west-northwestward at 20 miles per hour (32 km/h).[2] Initially, moderate wind shear prevented strengthening, though a decrease in shear allowed the depression to intensify into Tropical Storm Andrew at around 1200 UTC on August 17.[1] By early on August 18, the storm maintained concentrated convection near the center with spiral bands to its west as the winds increased to 50 miles per hour (80 km/h).[3] Shortly thereafter the thunderstorms decreased markedly during the diurnal minimum,[4] and as the storm turned to the northwest increased southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level low prevented Andrew from maintaining deep convection.[1]

On August 19, a Hurricane Hunters flight into the storm failed to locate a well-defined center,[5] and the next day a flight found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained; observations indicated the pressure rose to an unusually high 1015 mbar. The flight indicated Andrew maintained a vigorous circulation aloft, with winds of 80 miles per hour (130 km/h) recorded at flight level. Subsequently, the upper-level low weakened and split into a trough, which decreased the wind shear over the storm. Simultaneously, a strong high pressure cell developed over the southeastern United States, which built eastward and caused Andrew to turn to the west.[1] Convection became more organized as upper-level outflow became better established.[6] An eye formed, and Andrew attained hurricane status early on August 22 while located about 650 miles (1,050 km) eastsoutheast of Nassau, Bahamas.[1]
 
You're good Reed. From Wiki...

Origins
A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on August 14. Under the influence of a ridge of high pressure to its north, the wave tracked quickly westward. An area of convection developed along the wave axis to the south of the Cape Verde islands, and on August 15 meteorologists began classifying the system with the Dvorak technique. The thunderstorm activity became more concentrated, and narrow spiral rainbands developed around a developing center of circulation. Based on a Dvorak T-number of 2.0, it is estimated Tropical Depression Three developed late on August 16 about 1,630 miles (2,620 km) east-southeast of Barbados.[1]


Hurricane Andrew as a Category 5 hurricane near the Bahamas
Embedded within the deep easterlies, the depression tracked west-northwestward at 20 miles per hour (32 km/h).[2] Initially, moderate wind shear prevented strengthening, though a decrease in shear allowed the depression to intensify into Tropical Storm Andrew at around 1200 UTC on August 17.[1] By early on August 18, the storm maintained concentrated convection near the center with spiral bands to its west as the winds increased to 50 miles per hour (80 km/h).[3] Shortly thereafter the thunderstorms decreased markedly during the diurnal minimum,[4] and as the storm turned to the northwest increased southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level low prevented Andrew from maintaining deep convection.[1]

On August 19, a Hurricane Hunters flight into the storm failed to locate a well-defined center,[5] and the next day a flight found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained; observations indicated the pressure rose to an unusually high 1015 mbar. The flight indicated Andrew maintained a vigorous circulation aloft, with winds of 80 miles per hour (130 km/h) recorded at flight level. Subsequently, the upper-level low weakened and split into a trough, which decreased the wind shear over the storm. Simultaneously, a strong high pressure cell developed over the southeastern United States, which built eastward and caused Andrew to turn to the west.[1] Convection became more organized as upper-level outflow became better established.[6] An eye formed, and Andrew attained hurricane status early on August 22 while located about 650 miles (1,050 km) eastsoutheast of Nassau, Bahamas.[1]

Yea, I know a lot of useless information..........Andrew formed during the end of an ENSO and high level wind shear usually prevents development, but it was able to fight through it which makes you wonder how big of a storm it could have been.
 
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Yea, I know a lot of useless information..........Andrew formed during the end of an ENSO and high level wind shear usually prevents development, but it was able to fight through it which makes you wonder how big of a storm it could have been.

Andrew was quite unique in that it used shear to its advantage. An upper air trough actually ventilated outflow aloft which gave its rapid strengthening. Usually upper air troughs will tear a system apart but was in a "sweet spot" that time.
 
Seems to me conditions in the Atlantic basin simply are not yet ideal for sustaining a powerful cyclone over long distances/periods of time. Give it a month or two.
 
When I was working with the Danish SOF guys a couple of weeks ago one of the guys was going to the Caribbean for 2 weeks this month. I was giving him my limited advice and mentioned hurricanes. Dude was like what are hurricanes? Was surprised he had no idea what they were or that we are in season.
 
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