To the financial guys on here. Where do you see the overall market. Throw out any major war or happening that you could wait a year or 2 for a rebound
Where do you see the DOW in 10 years (2025)?
- Thread starter jamnolfin
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It will be called the DAO and operated from its new hq in Beijing.
The growing reliance on algorithms and the prevalence of micro-trading, and the complete abandonment of traditional ratios and actual profitability as a means of setting and determining a stock's value, will reduce stock market to the investment equivalent of Draft Kings, where if the "common" folk make money on it, it's largely by coincidence.
I see a market that's plagued by some really gnarly volatility swings - only those with access to high-speed trading will be protected from our computer overlords and their hedge fund companions.
8% return / year would put it at 35,000ish. The demographics of the Baby Boomers retiring and using their retirement savings (selling securities) though could easily mean that it's no better than it is now.
long term the stock market grows at about the rate of GDP growth. Historically that has been 6%, but lately its been 3% at best. Considering the demographic headwinds, the current over capacity, and the likely growth in capacity due to technological gains and further globalization, the U.S. will be lucky to have any real growth at all. Real wages are down 5% since 45 years ago. On top of that, stocks are richly valued now, and corporate earnings are at an all time high. if earnings retrace just a little, you could see a big reversal in the market.
if you are going to commit money to the market, look at things that are reliable like utitilies that pay a good dividend yield, and Buffet-esque capital efficient businesses like Coca Cola, Hershey, Apple.
This is how I feel. Just like your bookies, they'll make money regardless.
But what's the alternative investment strategy?
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