really good news - b10 and P12 canceling but covid trend may help

[GvilleNole]

The covid thread have gotten so political they are deleted but given the B10 and P12 are trying to shut us down it is nice to see the DRASTIC drop in covid case and deaths ..

gotta help us in moving forward and starting the season .. pressure is still enormous for the ACC to shut down ..

I really like the odds we start the season .. do we finish? only God knows ..

Yall agree?

 

[fsusox]

Yep, I agree but it is going to be difficult to finish the season. Once the students show up covid cases will probably increase. Hopefully the scientists will come up with some answers.

 

[QuaZ2002]

Herd immunity within the team is our best hope. Or doesn’t even need to be true herd immunity but if half the guys have immunity it would limit considerable outbreaks. It’s kind of a grim way to look at it but I think it’s true.

 

[JRDNole86]

The covid thread have gotten so political they are deleted but given the B10 and P12 are trying to shut us down it is nice to see the DRASTIC drop in covid case and deaths ..

gotta help us in moving forward and starting the season .. pressure is still enormous for the ACC to shut down ..

I really like the odds we start the season .. do we finish? only God knows ..

Yall agree?

There isn't a drastic drop in deaths; it's back up to over 1,000 per day.

 

[mjpwooo]

There isn't a drastic drop in deaths; it's back up to over 1,000 per day.

Is that by date of death or date of reported? There's a difference.

 

[ChiefWB]

There isn't a drastic drop in deaths; it's back up to over 1,000 per day.

Cases are drastically down. Deaths will follow.

 

[JRDNole86]

Cases are drastically down. Deaths will follow.

Not if the latest predictions from a leading model (IHME) of 410,000 Covid-19 related deaths by January 1, 2021 are correct:

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

Here are other models, all with upward trends:

Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed — And Why They Disagree

We’re tracking 10 infectious disease models to understand where the coronavirus death toll could be headed in the coming weeks

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[ChiefWB]

Not if the latest predictions from a leading model (IHME) of 410,000 Covid-19 related deaths by January 1, 2021 are correct:

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

Here are other models, all with upward trends:

Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed — And Why They Disagree

We’re tracking 10 infectious disease models to understand where the coronavirus death toll could be headed in the coming weeks

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

You can love the UW predictions. They have yet to be anything close to accurate. Thank God. It continues to speak to your narrative.

 

[JRDNole86]

You can love the UW predictions. They have yet to be anything close to accurate. Thank God. It continues to speak to your narrative.

But the Aministration's Coronavirus Task Force references it over other models. If Americans spend the Fall not wearing masks and taking other precautions, the number of deaths will likely be along those estimates (note that there is a predicted range). Especially as people stay inside due to colder temperatures. Covid-related deaths are currently at a steady count of approximately 1,000 a day and this is a trend which will likely go higher. However, even if it stays at the current daily numbers, in one month from now we will be at around 220,000 minimum. The model predicts a lower end total of around 298, 000 by January 1, 2021, which would still be a lot of deaths. Actually, the current total is 190,000 too many for most.

 

[ChiefWB]

But the Aministration's Coronavirus Task Force references it over other models. If Americans spend the Fall not wearing masks and taking other precautions, the number of deaths will likely be along those estimates (note that there is a predicted range). Especially as people stay inside due to colder temperatures. Covid-related deaths are currently at a steady count of approximately 1,000 a day and this is a trend which will likely go higher. However, even if it stays at the current daily numbers, in one month from now we will be at around 220,000 minimum. The model predicts a lower end total of around 298, 000 by January 1, 2021, which would still be a lot of deaths. Actually, the current total is 190,000 too many for most.

Or maybe people continue to wear masks, social distance, effective therapies continue to be developed and vaccinations come to market.

 

[JRDNole86]

Or maybe people continue to wear masks, social distance, effective therapies continue to be developed and vaccinations come to market.

Yes, that would be desirable. Ask yourself-do you honestly think that will happen as people start to go out more? Yesterday I drove by a high school practice field where young kids were playing a sport. Very few, if any, parents were wearing masks. The kids weren't either, but I expected more parents to be wearing one. And the school year just started.

 

[ChiefWB]

Yes, that would be desirable. Ask yourself-do you honestly think that will happen as people start to go out more? Yesterday I drive by a high school practice field where young kids were playing a sport. Very few, if any, parents were wearing masks. The kids weren't either, but I expected more parents to be wearing one. And the school year just started.

Yes. I honestly believe and expect the current precautions wil continue. And I am 100% certain that if we knew in March and April what we know today as far as how to treat the symptoms of the virus, deaths would be a fraction of what they are today. I expect that to continue and improve as time goes on.

 

[JRDNole86]

Yes. I honestly believe and expect the current precautions wil continue. And I am 100% certain that if we knew in March and April what we know today as far as how to treat the symptoms of the virus, deaths would be a fraction of what they are today. I expect that to continue and improve as time goes on.

Well, I hope that you are right.

 

[GbrNole]

From CDC data, half as many positive tests but over half of the total deaths (average approximately 2,000 deaths per day) in the first 7 weeks during significant nationwide lockdowns (late March through mid-May). Twice as many positive tests but less than half on the number of total deaths (average approximately 1,000 deaths per day) in the last 12 weeks. The past 12 weeks have seen most places begin to reopen and of course the ability for people to more readily gather.

The total excess deaths in 2020 from all causes stated by the CDC is just over 200,000.

the 0-24 age group has at no point in 2020 recorded excess deaths above the 5-year average, in fact, it has been running lower for all of 2020.

the 25-44 age group has slightly exceeded the average deaths seen for each of the past 5 years but never recorded a significant spike as observed in the older age demographics.

deaths amongst the 45-64 age group had a clear spike over the 5-year trend but have now dropped back to the 5-year average trend line.

deaths in ages 65 and above all recorded significant spikes, are declining but are still well above the 5-year average trend lines.

Pure opinion for the remainder. What do I make of this? Well, we know that upwards of 200,000 excess deaths have occurred in 2020 and there are at least one or more reasons for that. Clearly COVID is a significant factor but this is where we move out of black and white and move into a very grey area as the data we receive contradicts certain prior statements. Ultimately it leaves us to question how many of the excess deaths were directly or indirectly caused by the virus itself? and how many of those excess deaths were caused by insufficient care because of restrictions, limitations, and shutdown, but where the virus itself had no part in the death?

The CDC has already acknowledged there are COVID coded deaths where no COVID was present at all and the cause of death was insufficient care. If the PCR testing is as faulty as recently stated then how substantial is that number more than what was already thought?

Is the substantial drop in the rate of death, even though the number of positive cases has significantly increased in that time, been due to a factor of immune response beginning to build?