We are headed for one hell of a crash

[divinnole]

If you have bought anything lately dealing with building materials then you know what I am talking about. The price increases are absolutely crazy, with many items having increased 200% since Jan.
I have to buy steel pipe for my welding class and have seen the price for a piece of 6" pipe, which is one of the sizes welders are tested on for employment, jump from $590/21' length to $1222.00 since Jan.
Lumber has seen even more dramatic increases. A new 2000sq. ft. home in Bay Co will now cost over $350K and projected to be over 400K by June. I deal with a lot shipyards and major construction companies. All are saying they are seeing new projects on the books come to a screeching halt. Prices are jumping so fast they can't get locked in on prices to be able to bid projects. At some point we are going to reach a point and it is all going to come crashing down. We have all seen major market corrections when things have gotten out proportion before but I have never seen things like they are now. I think when it does finally come crashing back down it will be the worse we have seen.

 

[divinnole]

They were going crazy before him, but he is not helping. The largest % jumps have been since Jan.

 

[Dr. Nole]

If you have bought anything lately dealing with building materials then you know what I am talking about. The price increases are absolutely crazy, with many items having increased 200% since Jan.
I have to buy steel pipe for my welding class and have seen the price for a piece of 6" pipe, which is one of the sizes welders are tested on for employment, jump from $590/21' length to $1222.00 since Jan.
Lumber has seen even more dramatic increases. A new 2000sq. ft. home in Bay Co will now cost over $350K and projected to be over 400K by June. I deal with a lot shipyards and major construction companies. All are saying they are seeing new projects on the books come to a screeching halt. Prices are jumping so fast they can't get locked in on prices to be able to bid projects. At some point we are going to reach a point and it is all going to come crashing down. We have all seen major market corrections when things have gotten out proportion before but I have never seen things like they are now. I think when it does finally come crashing back down it will be the worse we have seen.

We had planned to demo our home replace seawall and then build a new house on our lot....not sure now if/when it will happen.

 

[89nole]

Pandemic shutdowns hurt supply and everybody sitting at home decided to do renovations. Its a perfect storm thing not Tump or Biden's fault.

 

[divinnole]

Pandemic shutdowns hurt supply and everybody sitting at home decided to do renovations. Its a perfect storm thing not Tump or Biden's fault.

That is a very small part of it. It has some impact on lumber and home supplies but it has nothing to do with heavy metal supplies.

 

[goldmom]

Timber growers in Georgia and all over the South are being PAID not to harvest their trees by groups who want them in ground for their supposed ability to "offset carbon".
Nutty? Yes it is.

 

[F4Gary]

The price of good, used C7 Corvettes has gone up $5000.

 

[EL73]

Timber growers in Georgia and all over the South are being PAID not to harvest their trees by groups who want them in ground for their supposed ability to "offset carbon".
Nutty? Yes it is.

And if they do harvest their timber they are getting very low prices while their customers, the lumber mills, have tripled their sales prices. It’s outrageous

 

[Nolerball]

Timber growers in Georgia and all over the South are being PAID not to harvest their trees by groups who want them in ground for their supposed ability to "offset carbon".
Nutty? Yes it is.

smh at this. Have seen prices skyrocket for materials I have to buy and frankly, the lumber I can find is pretty sad...have had to dig through the stacks of lumber at HD and then when I find a decent piece, I set it aside only to have someone else approach the stack, see what I had set down and pick it up for themselves. "glad I could find that for you" is all I can say as I keep digging and searching for something and after I realize its gone...

Yeah, sorry to say, I am one of those knuckleheads doing projects at home due to working remotely for over a year and given 'free time' to do other stuff at home...

 

[MagNoleA]

Timber growers in Georgia and all over the South are being PAID not to harvest their trees by groups who want them in ground for their supposed ability to "offset carbon".
Nutty? Yes it is.

What exactly do you mean by the term "nutty?" Regarding lumber, if you don't see the yella tag, believe me, you don't want it.

 

[goldmom]

smh at this. Have seen prices skyrocket for materials I have to buy and frankly, the lumber I can find is pretty sad...have had to dig through the stacks of lumber at HD and then when I find a decent piece, I set it aside only to have someone else approach the stack, see what I had set down and pick it up for themselves. "glad I could find that for you" is all I can say as I keep digging and searching for something and after I realize its gone...

Yeah, sorry to say, I am one of those knuckleheads doing projects at home due to working remotely for over a year and given 'free time' to do other stuff at home...

Try a regular lumberyard. HD doesn’t always get the best stuff.

 

[MagNoleA]

I think the entire metro Tallahassee area is under a lumber alert.

 

[Deerfuel2]

If you have bought anything lately dealing with building materials then you know what I am talking about. The price increases are absolutely crazy, with many items having increased 200% since Jan.
I have to buy steel pipe for my welding class and have seen the price for a piece of 6" pipe, which is one of the sizes welders are tested on for employment, jump from $590/21' length to $1222.00 since Jan.
Lumber has seen even more dramatic increases. A new 2000sq. ft. home in Bay Co will now cost over $350K and projected to be over 400K by June. I deal with a lot shipyards and major construction companies. All are saying they are seeing new projects on the books come to a screeching halt. Prices are jumping so fast they can't get locked in on prices to be able to bid projects. At some point we are going to reach a point and it is all going to come crashing down. We have all seen major market corrections when things have gotten out proportion before but I have never seen things like they are now. I think when it does finally come crashing back down it will be the worse we have seen.

I'm ready for the crash. Going on 3 years since Michael. My rebuild is on hold until there is some sanity back in the market

 

[nynole1]

We are looking to sell our house here in NY and make a killing on it. Park that money, rent for a year or two, then buy back in when this house of cards comes crashing down. God willing that will be in a red state.

 

[Deerfuel2]

We are looking to sell our house here in NY and make a killing on it. Park that money, rent for a year or two, then buy back in when this house of cards comes crashing down. God willing that will be in a red state.

Just sold my house in Ga. I am Full time Floridian again.

 

[EL73]

What exactly do you mean by the term "nutty?" Regarding lumber, if you don't see the yella tag, believe me, you don't want it.

What yellow tag are you referring to?

 

[goldmom]

What yellow tag are you referring to?

Do you live in the South? Yellawood is a brand or type of treated pine lumber with a distinctive yellow tint.

 

[goldmom]

We are looking to sell our house here in NY and make a killing on it. Park that money, rent for a year or two, then buy back in when this house of cards comes crashing down. God willing that will be in a red state.

My son has a new neighbor who is two years from retirement as an NYC detective. He sold his house in (I think) Queens and bought a home in my sons neighborhood and moved his family down. He's renting a room from his brother in NY for the next 18 months but his wife and kids are already in FL and in school. Sold his house for $600K and bought in St. John's County for $425K. He commutes down to Fl every other weekend.
I think NY has lots of folks either doing something similar or at least thinking about it.

 

[Dodinole]

Timber growers in Georgia and all over the South are being PAID not to harvest their trees by groups who want them in ground for their supposed ability to "offset carbon".
Nutty? Yes it is.

Nutty and duplicitous, when carbon from US is a small percentage of the world’s footprint.

 

[Dodinole]

My son has a new neighbor who is two years from retirement as an NYC detective. He sold his house in (I think) Queens and bought a home in my sons neighborhood and moved his family down. He's renting a room from his brother in NY for the next 18 months but his wife and kids are already in FL and in school. Sold his house for $600K and bought in St. John's County for $425K. He commutes down to Fl every other weekend.
I think NY has lots of folks either doing something similar or at least thinking about it.

People are fleeing NY in such numbers, movers and rental truck and trailer owners have long waiting lists. Numerous very serious reasons.

 

[EL73]

Do you live in the South? Yellawood is a brand or type of treated pine lumber with a distinctive yellow tint.

Right. Yellawood is just a brand name for the product lines that are sold by a large wood preserving company. They buy the same lumber as most any other lumberyard would have in their inventory. A large percentage of their wood goes to Home Depot and Lowe’s (referred to as box stores).

 

[nynole1]

My son has a new neighbor who is two years from retirement as an NYC detective. He sold his house in (I think) Queens and bought a home in my sons neighborhood and moved his family down. He's renting a room from his brother in NY for the next 18 months but his wife and kids are already in FL and in school. Sold his house for $600K and bought in St. John's County for $425K. He commutes down to Fl every other weekend.
I think NY has lots of folks either doing something similar or at least thinking about it.

I live in Westchester county (it borders NYC to the north). Many people who live here are selling to the NYC crowd and moving to the next two counties north of Westchester if they aren't leaving the state entirely.
If we sell now, we will have $500k+ in equity to buy our next house. We could get something for $700-750k (that's the range that fits our needs in a town in NC we are targeting), put down 20% and use the interest from the remaining equity to pay virtually all of our new mortgage with the right investments. I know the investment market won't stay like this and we wouldn't be counting on it to do so, but it's a nice way to think about the math.

 

[Ohio1nole]

I have a habit/hobby of looking on Zillow to pass time.. and it is interesting to see what houses are going for across the country.. it’s absolutely insane.

half joking but half serious when I always think to myself, how in to hell do people make a living and afford housing in the San Diego, LA, Bay Area, Seattle, New York, Long Island, Connecticut, etc. I guess it just shows that there is money to be made in this world and ya just gotta go do it.

It’s nice to know that per square feet pricing, my house would be worth 3 million in the San Francisco area..

Too bad my house is currently located in Ohio.

 

[nynole1]

I have a habit/hobby of looking on Zillow to pass time.. and it is interesting to see what houses are going for across the country.. it’s absolutely insane.

half joking but half serious when I always think to myself, how in to hell do people make a living and afford housing in the San Diego, LA, Bay Area, Seattle, New York, Long Island, Connecticut, etc. I guess it just shows that there is money to be made in this world and ya just gotta go do it.

It’s nice to know that per square feet pricing, my house would be worth 3 million in the San Francisco area..

Too bad my house is currently located in Ohio.

I'd prefer my house to be located in Ohio versus NY. It's maddening what's happening out here.

 

[Ohio1nole]

I'd prefer my house to be located in Ohio versus NY. It's maddening what's happening out here.

not even in the locations I previously mentioned. But I’ll look at places that I have lived in the past like Columbus and Delray Beach. And their markets are crazy too.

I read an article here locally and it mentioned that houses going between 150-350K, are only staying on the market for 2 days before it is selling at or above asking.

 

[goldmom]

The house we owned in SoCal (Orange County) in 1980 is a 3/2 1700 sq ft in a good area. I looked on Zillow and it’s valued at $892,000. Absolutely insane.
I don’t understand how people do it. No wonder they’re moving.

 

[Ohio1nole]

The house we owned in SoCal (Orange County) in 1980 is a 3/2 1700 sq ft in a good area. I looked on Zillow and it’s valued at $892,000. Absolutely insane.
I don’t understand how people do it. No wonder they’re moving.

unreal ain’t it?

like there can only be so many CEO’s, successful business owners, etc living in the area to buy the houses..

And yet, even with the mass exodus out of Cali, houses are still selling quickly at those outrageous prices

 

[Dr. Nole]

I couldn't (re) buy the house I live in now at todays prices.

 

[nynole1]

The house we owned in SoCal (Orange County) in 1980 is a 3/2 1700 sq ft in a good area. I looked on Zillow and it’s valued at $892,000. Absolutely insane.
I don’t understand how people do it. No wonder they’re moving.

People do it because they are fully leveraged on EVERYTHING they can be fully leveraged on. I'm more of a tortoise than a hare: other than my mortgage, I don't carry debt and I don't borrow money. Most people I know have HELOCs and all kinds of other things like that, I refuse. That's why when my business took an 87% hit in three weeks at the beginning of the virus, I wasn't in full panic mode.
I heard a statistic that said over 70% of Americans could not come up with $2k to deal with an emergency if they had to. That's sad.

 

[Ohio1nole]

People do it because they are fully leveraged on EVERYTHING they can be fully leveraged on. I'm more of a tortoise than a hare: other than my mortgage, I don't carry debt and I don't borrow money. Most people I know have HELOCs and all kinds of other things like that, I refuse. That's why when my business took an 87% hit in three weeks at the beginning of the virus, I wasn't in full panic mode.
I heard a statistic that said over 70% of Americans could not come up with $2k to deal with an emergency if they had to. That's sad.

I listen to a lot of Dave Ramsey. And I’ve heard that same stat. But I believe it’s actually 1k that can’t come up with!

that’s insane that you don’t have an extra 1K just laying around in case of an emergency.

but like you said. Everyone is so maxed out on everything. Huge mortgages. His and hers new cars with outrageous payments. Credit card debt. Maybe a boat or motorcycle. Country club memberships, gym memberships.. etc etc.

 

[squiffynole]

I have an extra $60K that I want to invest, what is my best course of action in the current economy?

 

[Ohio1nole]

I have an extra $60K that I want to invest, what is my best course of action in the current economy?

Everyone says real estate.. But i don't know enough about it.. It just seems like there are red flags right now with real estate

I saw a video that 2.2 million people are at least 90 days late with their mortgage. And another 8.8 million are facing eviction from their apartments..

Add that with the crazy prices to build a house right now and it seems like something isn't adding up.

Any real estate experts on here that can give an opinion?

 

[divinnole]

When I got married in 77 we looked at buying a home at that point. Back then the lending institutions would base how much house you afford on 1-1/2 to 2X your yearly income. Of course other debts were calculated into it also. So at the time we could have afforded up to a 50K house. We choose not to buy at the time because we were looking to locate elsewhere when she completed school. Now lending institutions base the amount they will loan based on 3-1/2 to 4Xs your annual earnings. We have relatively minor debts with all the vehicles paid for, boats paid off, have some additional property we owe a very low monthly payment for. Using the lending institutions matrix we would qualify for a 500-600K load. We could probably do it if all we lived for was to pay the mortgage, I could not imagine trying to do so with kids still at a home, car payments, utilities and all the other day to day living expenses. This is the same thing that took place in the early 2000's. Prices skyrocketed, and foreclosures soon followed. Can't see this not happening sometime in the near future.

 

[nynole1]

When I got married in 77 we looked at buying a home at that point. Back then the lending institutions would base how much house you afford on 1-1/2 to 2X your yearly income. Of course other debts were calculated into it also. So at the time we could have afforded up to a 50K house. We choose not to buy at the time because we were looking to locate elsewhere when she completed school. Now lending institutions base the amount they will loan based on 3-1/2 to 4Xs your annual earnings. We have relatively minor debts with all the vehicles paid for, boats paid off, have some additional property we owe a very low monthly payment for. Using the lending institutions matrix we would qualify for a 500-600K load. We could probably do it if all we lived for was to pay the mortgage, I could not imagine trying to do so with kids still at a home, car payments, utilities and all the other day to day living expenses. This is the same thing that took place in the early 2000's. Prices skyrocketed, and foreclosures soon followed. Can't see this not happening sometime in the near future.

I'm actually counting on those foreclosures and the like happening so that I can take advantage. I'm not rooting for other people to hit hard times, but I will take advantage when that happens.
People need to learn to live within their means and understand the difference between need and want.

 

[FSUDoles]

I have an extra $60K that I want to invest, what is my best course of action in the current economy?

Gold is a good hedge against inflation that is basically here...the US dollar will tank as inflation fears/reality set in.

 

[Bamanoles]

Homes in my middle class, safe neighborhood in Tallahassee are now selling for $160-180+ per sq ft. I paid less than $107/sf less than 7 years ago. I'm keeping it - paying double the principal.

 

[spencerklly]

I'm actually counting on those foreclosures and the like happening so that I can take advantage. I'm not rooting for other people to hit hard times, but I will take advantage when that happens.
People need to learn to live within their means and understand the difference between need and want.

The entire thing is a sham. It won't be like 2008. Foreclosures are the fault of the borrower this time as they are too lazy to reemploy themselves & have taken on WAY too much debt while we have been in Camelot. If you could afford a $2,000 mortgage before a crash, you could afford one after. People don't look at the long term marathon of life.

 

[spencerklly]

Everyone says real estate.. But i don't know enough about it.. It just seems like there are red flags right now with real estate

I saw a video that 2.2 million people are at least 90 days late with their mortgage. And another 8.8 million are facing eviction from their apartments..

Add that with the crazy prices to build a house right now and it seems like something isn't adding up.

Any real estate experts on here that can give an opinion?

We're in the process of getting everything together to build in Fernandina Beach. The house is 4200 under roof & the initial estimate is 550k. We are one of the few states to not shut down & yellow pine is stacked sky high in the lumber yards. The suppliers are killing the buyer because they can. Some builder's are speculating some form of stabilization at the end of this quarter, economists are expecting it by the end of the year.... however, prices/costs might not reflect it.

 

[spencerklly]

If you have bought anything lately dealing with building materials then you know what I am talking about. The price increases are absolutely crazy, with many items having increased 200% since Jan.
I have to buy steel pipe for my welding class and have seen the price for a piece of 6" pipe, which is one of the sizes welders are tested on for employment, jump from $590/21' length to $1222.00 since Jan.
Lumber has seen even more dramatic increases. A new 2000sq. ft. home in Bay Co will now cost over $350K and projected to be over 400K by June. I deal with a lot shipyards and major construction companies. All are saying they are seeing new projects on the books come to a screeching halt. Prices are jumping so fast they can't get locked in on prices to be able to bid projects. At some point we are going to reach a point and it is all going to come crashing down. We have all seen major market corrections when things have gotten out proportion before but I have never seen things like they are now. I think when it does finally come crashing back down it will be the worse we have seen.

It's not going to be similar to 2008, at least not in Florida. Intercity/poor neighborhoods are going to get hit hard as they generally do, middle of the road will be minimal, & fast growing counties not so much. Its just not going to be ass relatively cheap as it has been & we may reveal a new baseline when everything is said & done.

 

[FlashFSU]

I have no idea what's going to happen. Everywhere I look there's massive speculation and bubbles.

Stock market? Check.

Real Estate. Smaller check.

Crytpo? Maybe check.

Maybe the massive inflation is going to balance out the stock market and real estate bubbles. I dunno.