California wildfires.

[BrianNole777]

@BrainVision are you safe?

 

[goldmom]

@BrainVision are you safe?

I think he’s now in NoCal?
Very tragic thing happening out there.

 

[F4Gary]

He's in the Bay area.

 

[F4Gary]

I'm beginning to wonder how these fires were started.

 

[firenole1]

Watching last night and there were 6 separate uncommunicated fires in the Hollywood Hills area. That looks like they are having help.

 

[BrianNole777]

The news reported there may be $60 billion of damage so far. 😞

 

[BrainVision]

I am safe. We had to close our two practice locations and go fully remote. The situation has been rapidly evolving, and we have been attempting to adapt as well as we can. Several of my colleagues and friends have lost their homes, schools, offices, etc.; but we have all managed to evacuate the city until the circumstances stabilize. We are very grateful to all of our firefighters who have come from across the entire state to help and our city, county, and state leaders who are doing as good a job as possible at managing a generational catastrophe. The Palisades and Malibu will rebuild like they have after previous fires, but I really worry about Altadena.

 

[BrianNole777]

I am safe. We had to close our two practice locations and go fully remote. The situation has been rapidly evolving, and we have been attempting to adapt as well as we can. Several of my colleagues and friends have lost their homes, schools, offices, etc.; but we have all managed to evacuate the city until the circumstances stabilize. We are very grateful to all of our firefighters who have come from across the entire state to help and our city, county, and state leaders who are doing as good a job as possible at managing a generational catastrophe. The Palisades and Malibu will rebuild like they have after previous fires, but I really worry about Alta Dena.

Glad you're safe.

What do you think is causing these fires?

 

[BrainVision]

Glad you're safe.

What do you think is causing these fires?

The concurrence of a historically dry year, with essentially no rain for the last nine months, with an extraordinarily strong Santa Ana wind event. The humidity has been incredibly low, and the winds have been incredibly strong and persistent. Just the worst case scenario for wildfires, and once one starts the winds carry burning embers all over the area igniting other fires.

 

[BrianNole777]

The concurrence of a historically dry year, with essentially no rain for the last nine months, with an extraordinarily strong Santa Ana wind event. The humidity has been incredibly low, and the winds have been incredibly strong and persistent. Just the worst case scenario for wildfires, and once one starts the winds carry burning embers all over the area igniting other fires.

Thanks.

How did the first spark begin?

I assume no one lit a match.

 

[goldmom]

Glad you’re safe, BV

 

[BrainVision]

Thanks.

How did the first spark begin?

I assume no one lit a match.

We may never know. Somebody could have lit a match or tossed a cigarette butt. Lots of these fires start when the wind blows debris or branches into power transmission lines. The fire that went through the Cal State campus where I was teaching in 2013 started when a semi's brakes overheated on the freeway and set fire to the brush on the shoulder.

 

[BrainVision]

Glad you’re safe, BV

Thank you. I am glad that we are safe, as well.

 

[F4Gary]

I am safe. We had to close our two practice locations and go fully remote. The situation has been rapidly evolving, and we have been attempting to adapt as well as we can. Several of my colleagues and friends have lost their homes, schools, offices, etc.; but we have all managed to evacuate the city until the circumstances stabilize. We are very grateful to all of our firefighters who have come from across the entire state to help and our city, county, and state leaders who are doing as good a job as possible at managing a generational catastrophe. The Palisades and Malibu will rebuild like they have after previous fires, but I really worry about Alta Dena.

Do you live in that area or have practices in that area? I was thinking you were up near the bay area now.

 

[goldmom]

The four-five year rebuild timeline is going to be a nightmare for SoCal.
Finding shelter as a long term rental is going to be very difficult because the reported shortage of homes/condos/apartments was already of concern. Note: Average home price in LA County is now just over $900,000 dollars.
Many of the citizens may just decide to relocate to Nevada or Arizona.
Demographers and sociologists will have a busy time laying out the long term effects this will have on many aspects of American life.
Expect shortages of building supplies, appliances, and home furnishings nationwide.
Time to buy Home Depot Stock?

 

[Banditking]

The four-five year rebuild timeline is going to be a nightmare for SoCal.
Finding shelter as a long term rental is going to be very difficult because the reported shortage of homes/condos/apartments was already of concern. Note: Average home price in LA County is now just over $900,000 dollars.
Many of the citizens may just decide to relocate to Nevada or Arizona.
Demographers and sociologists will have a busy time laying out the long term effects this will have on many aspects of American life.
Expect shortages of building supplies, appliances, and home furnishings nationwide.
Time to buy Home Depot Stock?

Moving will be easier than rebuilding in that regulatory environment.

 

[BrainVision]

I do not think the rebuild will be a nightmare, and I definitely do not think that many of the people who live in Pacific Palisades or Malibu will be moving to Nevada or Arizona. Both of those neighborhoods are among the most affluent and least dense in the county, with most of the houses in the $4-5+ million range. Most of the folks displaced likely have other homes, and there is no shortage of available houses and condos in their price range in other parts of the city. There are large, new luxury condo buildings with plenty of vacancies all around the city.

For example, if literally all 24,000 people in Pacific Palisades, about 1 quarter of 1% of the county population, needed to move to new housing, they could be easily accommodated within solely the new units built in LA just last year. The population of these areas and the number of houses within them are miniscule relative to scale of the city/county as a whole, and they have the resources to rebuild quickly.

I also would not predict nationwide shortages of materials, as replacing literally every structure that has been burned or damaged thus far would represent less than a 10% increase in the number of new houses built in California in a year. I am sure that the developers, like Rick Caruso, are actually thrilled to have the opportunity to rebuild some of the most expensive real estate in the world.

I think the biggest impact that will be seen in California and possibly nationwide will be on the home insurance market. We have seen that impact in the previous major fires, e.g., the Berkeley Hills fires back in the early 90s fundamentally changed the demographics and housing stock of the area due to the impact on insurability.

 

[BrainVision]

Regarding the start of the fires, I read an interesting report this morning about the spike in power line faults in the immediate areas of ignition during the hour before and after the approximate start of the first three fires. That could be another major impact locally, as it seems that power was still flowing through the lines despite a huge number of faults, which is likely attributable to inadequate sensor infrastructure and monitoring by the utilities. Northern California has been hit with massive utility price increases in the aftermath of the PG&E settlements following their fires, as the utility attempts to fireproof their infrastructure.