Your timeline is essentially one generation. That's the only place I disagree. I think it will take 2 generations, 50 years or so.
Europe's migrant crisis
- Thread starter GwinnettNole
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Your timeline is essentially one generation. That's the only place I disagree. I think it will take 2 generations, 50 years or so.
.......And even his number is apparently now obsolete. Probably no more than 3, according to this analysis, which notes that muslim reproductivity typically drops down closer to the norm once they become settled in a new country. I think that's been typical of most immigrant cohorts.
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-will-britain-have-a-muslim-majority-by-2050/13690
Oh COME ON!!
From Pew Research:
Europe is the only region where the total population is projected to decline. Europe’s Christian population is expected to shrink by about 100 million people in the coming decades, dropping from 553 million to 454 million. While Christians will remain the largest religious group in Europe, they are projected to drop from three-quarters of the population to less than two-thirds. By 2050, nearly a quarter of Europeans (23%) are expected to have no religious affiliation, and Muslims will make up about 10% of the region’s population, up from 5.9% in 2010. Over the same period, the number of Hindus in Europe is expected to roughly double, from a little under 1.4 million (0.2% of Europe’s population) to nearly 2.7 million (o.4%), mainly as a result of immigration. Buddhists appear headed for similarly rapid growth in Europe – a projected rise from 1.4 million to 2.5 million.
I hate to bring facts into the picture but that extra 4% is going to turn Europe into an Islamic Republic, LOL. Christ on a cracker, where do you guys come up with this stuff. If Europe is going to succumb to a non-secular Muslim regime because 1 in 10 Europeans are Muslim, they've got WAY bigger problems.
You're also totally wrong about birthrates - see below. Currently Christians and Muslims are both well above the replacement rate (globally) - Please show me where it's 8.1 for Muslims in France. That is a LOT of boinking!
Look you can whine about people having kids or you can start talking about realistic solutions - neither of which really matter b/c this is a message board.
But honestly - pointing fingers and saying we're all screwed isn't going to do anything. Barring massive disaster we are headed to 9 billion, like it or not. After that you'll be thrilled b/c things should decrease to a global equilibrium.
Your utopian ideal is easy to expose sitting on a padded office chair in khakis. Not sure things would be as simple if you were growing up in sub-Saharan Africa -- where nearly 4 in 10 Christians will live by 2050.
The migration of Muslims through Europe and to "the old country" as someone put it, doesn't have much to do with people having too many kids. It has a lot to do with not wanting to get beheaded by lunatics set on filling a power vacuum using our guns, fighting against a government we implemented (and excluded them from) and the troops we absurdly thought could hold their own - ever.
I hate to sound callous, but perhaps they should have considered this before they colonized these places and killed hundreds of thousands of folks that were just going on about their business having a nice life.
Again, if Europe wants to do something about it, they'll find a way to invest in better assimilation programs. Stomping their feet, harassing and shaming these people will do nothing.
Europe NEEDS more youth, they're below the replacement rate and will economically collapse without new workers - they should find a way to make the best these people who's ancestors they subjugated. Don't shove them into enclaves, bring them into regular communities. If dealt with intelligently, this could be a great new wave for Europe - or they can whine, cry and yes, lead to their further weakening. It's in Europe's hands because refugees are coming either way - why not make the best of it, you need smart young minds anyway.
Agree, the updated demographic trends just don't support a majority muslim Europe anytime soon. But if it did become majority muslim, that still wouldn't mean those muslims would want Islam influencing their formal government. Anybody have the polling on how muslims feel about separation of church and state vs. sharia law? I like to believe that moderating interpretations of Islam will grow over time.
Dang son, now we're agreeing on stuff.
I don't have polling data on this but I dont think it would be very different from the US where we've got a ~50/50 split on folks who are interested in some influence of Christian principles in the government/schools/etc... The split waxes and wanes over decades, based on other factors (and political agendas). You can see some of this in Turkey, a progressive Muslim nation that's seen a recent shift to the right thanks to propaganda from a pretty ass-holish head of state. Iran and Pakistan were also at varying points fairly progressive Muslim nations (remember Pak had a female head of state, Bhutto, way before we have). Sadly, nutjobs and outside forces (and nutjobs manipulating people based on propaganda about those outside forces) have bullied their way into those nations and others.
It's also smart to remember, many fleeing to Europe are doing so to avoid lunatic religious nutjobs - so it's not unreasonable to think they'd prefer to worship their god of choice and then go about their daily business of putting food on the table. They're likely pushed into insular behavior and occasionally their own zealous delusions after being socially and politically bullied. Victims of bullying lash out - in case we haven't noticed our own school shooting problem.
In any event, good post Spear - glad we are able to agree on this.
Thanks for the other post. I'm not really one to argue over these matters, just to throw out ideas and alternative thoughts. My points of divergence would be these: Just like the problems in this country, there's likely blame to go around. I doubt it's just the native sons that have exacerbated the problems. From what I've been told, Britain and Holland were a lot more accomodating and helpful to their immigrant incomers compared to a place like France. But it didn't particularly lead to the newcomers integrating into society any better. Holland has had some difficulties and some muslim extremist atrocities, and has had the pendulum swing back in the other direction a little from 'playing nice'.
There is nothing whiny about my post, I am speaking in truth. Every area of land has a carrying capacity and having so many kids overwhelms that. So whats the solution you have? Let everyone in and allow everything to go down the tubes? 9 billion people is a serious problem and will lead to more wars than we already have over resources, its almost inevitable. I believe in taking personal responsibility, not counting on other people to figure things out for me. Just because you live in sub-Saharan Africa doesn't mean you can't tell you have too many children to support.
Don't know happened when I tried to post above, and I can't edit. But anyhow, I don't know if we can do much about birth rates in Africa. We've tried to provide birth control, though I believe the catholic church as opposed those efforts since it considers birth control sinful
Is there a majority Muslim country that's moving in the right direction in terms of civil rights and treatment of women? Large "secular" states like Indonesia, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Turkey are trending the wrong way.
I think Islam itself is trending in the wrong direction at the moment, despite the fact that American and British leaders just about never miss a turn to tell us how peaceful it is, and to proclaim that the dangerous elements are "not real muslims". They doggone well are real, and theologically well-founded, and growing in number.
BTW, the rape rates are pretty high in some of those areas as well, probably especially in the war zones
You can only live in the world you've got and while I agree, personal responsibility should be taken, it's really tough to say what goes through the mind of someone in those circumstances. Believe me, they're likely not having additional kids to purposefully watch them starve/suffer. Again there are circumstances that you couldn't imagine, accepted teachings that to us would seem absurd, and logistical reasons that we progressed beyond a century ago that cause people to have more kids than what we'd deem necessary.
Keep in mind, the source of population growth over the next 35 years is essentially Africa. Let's think about why you'd have a ton of kids for a second, off my head...
a) high mortality rates - depending on location might out of 3-4 kids, only 1-2 might make it to adulthood
b) limited access to food and water means kids or mother goes to get the water everyday -- in Africa 40 billion hours per year are spent simply getting water (source: charity:water)
c) lack of prophylaxis / lack of knowledge in properly using it
d) family influence / culture- yes you are encouraged to have many
As a human, you only know what you're taught, so much so that as unbelievable as it might seem to us, many are taught and nurtured to raise large families. It's deemed virtuous even in the face of poverty/suffering - which is absurd to us. We probably do things they think are absurd, like throw away food, buy bottle service, sleep till noon, waste water on daily showers, keep swimming pools, etc...
The world has always had massive wars, the escalating population isn't going to change that. What was the population during WWI and WWII? The Crusades? The Mongol Conquests? The Taiping Rebellion? Wars are fought over resources and religion (or both) - why would that change?
But again, this has nothing to do with the European Migrant Crisis.
I wonder if this is true, Islam trending in the wrong direction, I suppose watching the news it would certainly seem that way, but I don't really trust the news to inform me on global trends. You may in fact be right, I'm not disputing you.
And does it really matter if the average "real Muslim" is moving to the right? What's right for a Muslim in Turkey or Jordan doesn't generally impact us - we might look at it funny, but who cares. Governments across the globe are trending right - Europe, Middle East, Aus/NZ, India - it's not alarming that the same is true in Turkey or Indonesia.
I'll disagree on your saying it's false that "dangerous elements are not real muslims." Someone that follows the teachings of the Koran doesn't do ISIS type lunatic shit. Similarly a real Christian doesn't bomb clinics or shoot up black churches - those people perverted their religion beyond recognition, whether caused by manipulative propaganda or their own depressed delusional fantasy (likely both).
The Catholic Church is not alone in that "opposition". Islamic opposition is there as well.
Look you can whine about people having kids or you can start talking about realistic solutions - neither of which really matter b/c this is a message board.
But honestly - pointing fingers and saying we're all screwed isn't going to do anything. Barring massive disaster we are headed to 9 billion, like it or not. After that you'll be thrilled b/c things should decrease to a global equilibrium.
Your utopian ideal is easy to expose sitting on a padded office chair in khakis. Not sure things would be as simple if you were growing up in sub-Saharan Africa -- where nearly 4 in 10 Christians will live by 2050.
I missed the part where anyone mentioned their padded office chair and what they were wearing.
I was actually kind of expecting you to say that we have been nudging it in the wrong direction, by taking actions in the ME that angered people there and led to more radicalization. I would partly agree with that position. But you're right, it's hard to know. We see the loud and radicalized voices, but that doesn't tell us what's happening at the grass roots.
In general when sex is a taboo subject or not taught intelligently, people tend to make poor reproductive decisions.
Source: India, Africa, USA
Not talking about it or teaching abstinence simply doesn't work. A variety of churches and bury your head in the sand cultures can share the blame for that.
We've probably provided a decent amount of "bulletin board material" for them - posters of Abu Ghraib, dead kids, etc... certainly don't work to our favor.
Wars entail civilian deaths but we've occasionally done ourselves no favors.
As a whole, it seems ISIS goes after disaffected youth, regardless of their religion. They've tricked Christian kids in England to take up what they claim is Islam so that they can enjoy that life (smdh). Like many other groups, they prey on the desperate, marginalized and bullied -- unfortunately the despicable crap they do is a billion times worse than those other groups.
I envisioned him as Jake from the State Farm commercials.I missed the part where anyone mentioned their padded office chair and what they were wearing.
Very sad.
Question though - aren't these folks generally safe in Turkey? Why do they risk everything to get to the EU?
Question though - aren't these folks generally safe in Turkey? Why do they risk everything to get to the EU?
There are approx 4 million Syrians who have fled their country. Most started in Turkey, but you can't expect them to take them all. It's been going on since 2012 and Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon were where they went first. Now 3 years later they're hitting Europe and suddenly it's news.
You're conflating refugees and asylum seekers. Germany is expecting 800k asylum seekers in 2015. The vast majority of refugees in Turkey are not seeking permanent residency.
Why does any country need to birth at least a replacement rate? Isn't the world already overcrowded? Aren't are seas already suffering from overfishing? Deforestation? Resource depletion ........Certainly China and India could use a birth rate of about .5. Do we want 1 billion in the US eventually?
I get it that most western countries have a Ponzi scheme to pay for their retirees, but fewer people might mean more for everybody left.
I get it that most western countries have a Ponzi scheme to pay for their retirees, but fewer people might mean more for everybody left.
If you don't birth at replacement rate your population will decline, which on the whole doesn't sound too bad until you realize you won't have enough new workers to sustain current economic needs (not to mention any growth).
Unless you have access to a crystal ball that forecasts a significant economic pullback - an industrialized nation reducing it's birthrate to below the replacement rate isn't a winning strategy.
just got back from 2 weeks in europe. crossed the austrian border into Slovenia. going the other way, they were stopping all trucks and busses, there was a 3-mile backup.
Sounds as frustrating as the perpetual traffic on 75 south of Atlanta bc of that stupid Tanger outlet!!!
You need a constantly growing supply of new workers to feed a government dictated and ponzi financed welfare system, but that's politics, not economics.
If the economy produces 10 trillion dollars of goods and services with 300 million people, is it actually 'poorer' if in the future it produces 8 trillion dollars of goods and services with only 200 million people?
Seems like Tribalism causes a lot of the problems as well. Other than education, I don't see how it can be eradicated. Something else bad will likely just take its place.
