Hurricane Erica
- Thread starter goldmom
- Start date
One model has it falling apart quickly. 2 models agree and has it hitting south florida and running up the coast, then kinda reforming and hanging around the west coast of fl. Another has it falling apart and reforming in the gulf running up the west coast.
They shouldn't have even put the cone out yet because they don't know what it is going to do with any certainty or uncertainty. In 24 hours we'll have a better idea and better models.
They shouldn't have even put the cone out yet because they don't know what it is going to do with any certainty or uncertainty. In 24 hours we'll have a better idea and better models.
Haven't we been hit enough times by that hurricane for the last two years.
My thoughts exactly. If it heads toward Tampa, they'll be prepared. The city's most prominent figure is well aware of how devastating a blow from Hurricane Erica can be.
Nah, Erica is/was backed by Gators, not Hurricanes...
You think Matt Barker will break any news about it but refuse to call the storm by name?
Just saw on TWC that the jet stream SHOULD pick up the storm and take her out to sea before hitting us. Lets hope so. They will know better tomorrow. I figure Publix was needing some extra business and that is why they put us in the cone of death already.
The timing of this thing is not very helpful to those of us who manage oceanfront condominium developments. Who needs the weekend off anyway.
The Gulf Stream has saved us numerous times, but should be good for some awesome surfing vids. Heard Home Depot is mobbed, no generators. I was there last night for some misc stuff and it was empty.
Pump House, Hurricane Sandy by Dasher
Last edited:
I AM old Florida folks, but I have to deal with panicked people from all over the country who own oceanfront property and are "summering" elsewhere.
It had to be someone from the FSU meteorology school that named it!
Isn't it the slow cheap time right now anyway? It is in the charter business. Or did you mean the summer in general?
Panic is already happening. I went to the store today and nearly got run over by two people who ran stop signs.
And I have to work at the beach this weekend, should be interesting.
And I have to work at the beach this weekend, should be interesting.
Wow, got lucky. Was tasked with going to Puerto Rico for work thurs, but something came up and a coworker is going instead!
Not time to freak out, but a good time to re-up on water, batteries, booze. Looks like it might hit sun/mon.
Jeff Masters on Erika 8/26:
"..A weak trough of low pressure capable of turning Erika to the north will set up shop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, and it is possible that Erika will be strong enough to get picked up by this trough and turn to the north just before reaching the Florida coast on Sunday evening or Monday morning, as suggested by the Wednesday morning runs of two of our top models for predicting hurricane tracks, the UKMET and HWRF models. If Erika stays weak, the storm is more likely to plow into Florida, as predicted by the Wednesday morning run of the European model. I give a 20% chance that Erika will end up being a landfalling hurricane for the U.S. East Coast, a 40% chance storm will dissipate by Saturday, and a 30% chance the storm will be too weak and disorganized to have time to organize into a hurricane before hitting the U.S. East Coast. There is also a small chance (10%) that Erika could miss the U.S. East Coast--a situation that would most likely arise if Erika quickly organizes into a hurricane by Saturday, and thus "feels" the steering influence of winds higher up in the atmosphere, forcing the storm to recurve out to sea. "
Jeff Masters on Erika 8/26:
"..A weak trough of low pressure capable of turning Erika to the north will set up shop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, and it is possible that Erika will be strong enough to get picked up by this trough and turn to the north just before reaching the Florida coast on Sunday evening or Monday morning, as suggested by the Wednesday morning runs of two of our top models for predicting hurricane tracks, the UKMET and HWRF models. If Erika stays weak, the storm is more likely to plow into Florida, as predicted by the Wednesday morning run of the European model. I give a 20% chance that Erika will end up being a landfalling hurricane for the U.S. East Coast, a 40% chance storm will dissipate by Saturday, and a 30% chance the storm will be too weak and disorganized to have time to organize into a hurricane before hitting the U.S. East Coast. There is also a small chance (10%) that Erika could miss the U.S. East Coast--a situation that would most likely arise if Erika quickly organizes into a hurricane by Saturday, and thus "feels" the steering influence of winds higher up in the atmosphere, forcing the storm to recurve out to sea. "
Old people -- especially those from the north -- are always charming. Enjoy your weekend.
Yep, they always seem to shift right as time goes on, well except Andrew, but it wouldnt shock me with a recurve out into the open ocean.
I think he recently started a new job, after a long period of unemployment. I forgot where he was working though.
Shifting left! Oh noes!
"Just one model... but showing the 'flip flop' nature we sometimes see with them. HWRF was quite a bit further east yesterday. EURO also showing movement back west. Interesting day ahead watching and waiting. www.spaghettimodels.com"
"Just one model... but showing the 'flip flop' nature we sometimes see with them. HWRF was quite a bit further east yesterday. EURO also showing movement back west. Interesting day ahead watching and waiting. www.spaghettimodels.com"
