There will be plenty on the line for the Florida State baseball team this weekend as it closes out the regular season.
Entering this weekend's home series vs. No. 4 North Carolina (37-11, 16-10 in ACC), the No. 2 Seminoles (36-11, 16-8) are well-positioned for a top-eight seed in the NCAA Tournament. They also enter the series atop the ACC standings.
With a series win over the Tar Heels, FSU would lock up a top-eight seed and a path to the College World Series entirely through games at Dick Howser Stadium. It would also likely line the Seminoles up for their first conference regular-season championship since 2012.
While FSU head coach Link Jarrett knows the importance of those things, mainly FSU's NCAA Tournament seeding, he's not focused on the big picture right now. With three games left before the ACC Tournament next week in Durham, N.C., FSU's head coach is still focused on the day-by-day with a tough opponent coming to town.
"Game by game. That's the way..." Jarrett said Thursday when asked about the conference stakes on the line this weekend. "I want to get the most out of each player and then when it's a team event, I want to get the most out of the team. That's what I look at. When the dust settles and the last pitches have been thrown, you hope that you have done enough to position the team to be the best they can be. If the best they can be is win the ACC regular season, so be it. If it's eighth place, you got the most out of them and you're in eighth place, so be it. That's how I approach it.
"The standings and the excitement and the rankings, all that stuff. I don't think that impacts the games. When you start to bleed those things into what's going on, I think they lose focus on the details of the game and preparation and practice and that sort of things. I do not want that accumulation of lack of attention to what's going on at the moment to enter the program. Now the guys know how important this series is. They know that. But the rest of it, we try to play well from day one and we'll try to play well tomorrow. That's how I look at it."
This series matches up what is statistically the ACC's best offense with the conference's best pitching staff. FSU leads the ACC in batting average (.324) and slugging percentage (.524) and ranks third in home runs (85) while the UNC offense ranks ninth in batting average (.285), 11th in slugging percentage (.464) and eighth in home runs (63).
However, the Tar Heels bring the ACC's best earned run average -- as well as the fourth-best ERA nationally and best among major conference teams -- to Tallahassee at 3.45. UNC has the fewest walks of any ACC pitching staff (159) and the second-best batting average against (.224) while FSU ranks fourth in ERA (4.61), sixth in walks issued (197) and third in batting average against (.230).
UNC's Friday starter Jake Knapp (10-0, 2.03 ERA) is the only pitcher in the ACC with a better ERA than FSU ace Jamie Arnold (5-1, 2.29 ERA). These two will face off in Thursday's series opener in a battle that could determine who wins ACC Pitcher of the Year. Arnold has thrown 16 less innings than Knapp, but simultaneously has more strikeouts (73 to 67) and more walks (19 to 13) than the UNC ace.
North Carolina's Saturday starter Jason DeCaro (7-3, 3.55) matches up comparably or better on paper with FSU's final two starters in Joey Volini (8-3, 3.18) and Wes Mendes (6-2, 4.81). The Tar Heels have a TBA listed for their Sunday starter due to Aidan Haugh's recent struggles, but they also have four relievers who have made 14+ appearances this season and have sub-four ERAs compared to one-such reliever (Joe Charles) in FSU's bullpen so UNC is not lacking in options.
"North Carolina is really, really tough..." Jarrett said. "We have our hands full."
All that being said, it's fair to wonder if the Tar Heels have faced an offense quite like FSU's this season.
The stakes for FSU in the ACC standings this weekend are fairly simple. If FSU sweeps the series, it will be the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament. If it wins two out of three games in the series, it'll be the No. 1 seed unless NC State sweeps Stanford at home. So long as FSU wins the series, it can't fall farther than second in the standings. Even if FSU loses two out of three games, it can't fall further than fourth and will receive a double-bye in the ACC Tournament to Thursday's quarterfinals.
The only way FSU could fall out of the top four and lose a double-bye would be if UNC sweeps the Seminoles at Howser. In that case, FSU could land anywhere between third and seventh in the ACC standings depending on results elsewhere.
We'll see how things shake out for the Seminoles when the series begins Thursday at 7 p.m. (ACC Network) from Dick Howser Stadium.
Entering this weekend's home series vs. No. 4 North Carolina (37-11, 16-10 in ACC), the No. 2 Seminoles (36-11, 16-8) are well-positioned for a top-eight seed in the NCAA Tournament. They also enter the series atop the ACC standings.
With a series win over the Tar Heels, FSU would lock up a top-eight seed and a path to the College World Series entirely through games at Dick Howser Stadium. It would also likely line the Seminoles up for their first conference regular-season championship since 2012.
While FSU head coach Link Jarrett knows the importance of those things, mainly FSU's NCAA Tournament seeding, he's not focused on the big picture right now. With three games left before the ACC Tournament next week in Durham, N.C., FSU's head coach is still focused on the day-by-day with a tough opponent coming to town.
"Game by game. That's the way..." Jarrett said Thursday when asked about the conference stakes on the line this weekend. "I want to get the most out of each player and then when it's a team event, I want to get the most out of the team. That's what I look at. When the dust settles and the last pitches have been thrown, you hope that you have done enough to position the team to be the best they can be. If the best they can be is win the ACC regular season, so be it. If it's eighth place, you got the most out of them and you're in eighth place, so be it. That's how I approach it.
"The standings and the excitement and the rankings, all that stuff. I don't think that impacts the games. When you start to bleed those things into what's going on, I think they lose focus on the details of the game and preparation and practice and that sort of things. I do not want that accumulation of lack of attention to what's going on at the moment to enter the program. Now the guys know how important this series is. They know that. But the rest of it, we try to play well from day one and we'll try to play well tomorrow. That's how I look at it."
This series matches up what is statistically the ACC's best offense with the conference's best pitching staff. FSU leads the ACC in batting average (.324) and slugging percentage (.524) and ranks third in home runs (85) while the UNC offense ranks ninth in batting average (.285), 11th in slugging percentage (.464) and eighth in home runs (63).
However, the Tar Heels bring the ACC's best earned run average -- as well as the fourth-best ERA nationally and best among major conference teams -- to Tallahassee at 3.45. UNC has the fewest walks of any ACC pitching staff (159) and the second-best batting average against (.224) while FSU ranks fourth in ERA (4.61), sixth in walks issued (197) and third in batting average against (.230).
UNC's Friday starter Jake Knapp (10-0, 2.03 ERA) is the only pitcher in the ACC with a better ERA than FSU ace Jamie Arnold (5-1, 2.29 ERA). These two will face off in Thursday's series opener in a battle that could determine who wins ACC Pitcher of the Year. Arnold has thrown 16 less innings than Knapp, but simultaneously has more strikeouts (73 to 67) and more walks (19 to 13) than the UNC ace.
North Carolina's Saturday starter Jason DeCaro (7-3, 3.55) matches up comparably or better on paper with FSU's final two starters in Joey Volini (8-3, 3.18) and Wes Mendes (6-2, 4.81). The Tar Heels have a TBA listed for their Sunday starter due to Aidan Haugh's recent struggles, but they also have four relievers who have made 14+ appearances this season and have sub-four ERAs compared to one-such reliever (Joe Charles) in FSU's bullpen so UNC is not lacking in options.
"North Carolina is really, really tough..." Jarrett said. "We have our hands full."
All that being said, it's fair to wonder if the Tar Heels have faced an offense quite like FSU's this season.
The stakes for FSU in the ACC standings this weekend are fairly simple. If FSU sweeps the series, it will be the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament. If it wins two out of three games in the series, it'll be the No. 1 seed unless NC State sweeps Stanford at home. So long as FSU wins the series, it can't fall farther than second in the standings. Even if FSU loses two out of three games, it can't fall further than fourth and will receive a double-bye in the ACC Tournament to Thursday's quarterfinals.
The only way FSU could fall out of the top four and lose a double-bye would be if UNC sweeps the Seminoles at Howser. In that case, FSU could land anywhere between third and seventh in the ACC standings depending on results elsewhere.
We'll see how things shake out for the Seminoles when the series begins Thursday at 7 p.m. (ACC Network) from Dick Howser Stadium.
