This is a very difficult question to answer. I've read sociologists say that it's impossible to prove divorce rates because it's a prediction. The often quoted "50% of marriages end in divorce" may or may not be true.
Here's why it's difficult to know for sure:
-There are less people married in America than ever before. This means the divorce rate is down but the marriage rate is down as well.
-Repeat marriages add to the divorce rate but those are still marriages. Should they not count?
-People that get married at 18 have a higher divorce rate than people that get married at 30.
The infidelity rate is also interesting and also complex because it's not legal record, like divorces are. Studies have shown that 70% of marriages have infidelity by either the husband or wife. This seems high to me.
My estimate is that 75% of marriages will either have infidelity or end in divorce.
Is this too high? Too low?
I will leave it to you, the good people of the LR, to discuss and analyze.
I don't know if it's amusing or embarrassing that you think the divorce rate can decrease simply if the marriage rate decreases.