Would you go?

[PopsNole]

Projections are constantly changing. The above poster was attempting to quote exaggerated numbers if we are to believe every reporting outlet we are being given. He also says that every reported COVID death is a “direct result of the virus”. I think we all recognize that as patently false. The emotional tug of war between the two sides is almost as tragic as the virus itself.

Agreed they are "projections," but that is what rely upon to predict the future. However, it should not be presented as factual.

I also agree that not every reported death can be said to be Covid related because there are a handful of known times death was wrongfully attributed to Covid, however, at the same time I'm sure there are deaths that were Covid related that were not attributed. Also depends on how we define "direct." We talking Covid was the only contributing factor to the death (aka the source of the 10k number) or Covid played a role or potentially was the straw that broke the camel's back so to speak.

 

[ChiefWB]

Agreed they are "projections," however, that is what rely upon to predict the future. However, it should not be presented as factual.

I also agree that not every reported death can be said to be Covid related because there are a handful of known times death was wrongfully attributed to Covid, however, at the same time I'm sure there are deaths that were Covid related that were not attributed. Also depends on how we define "direct." We talking Covid was the only contributing factor to the death (aka the source of the 10k number) or Covid played a role or potentially was the straw that broke the camel's back so to speak.

I have no doubt that early on there were deaths directly attributed to COVID that were missed as we had no idea what we were looking for at the time. Just as there are cases being coded as COVID deaths today with just the presence of the virus.
Certainly doesn’t explain why someone would quote a 250-320k death count without anything to back it up. And then double down by saying to wait because in 14 days we will get there.

 

[mjpwooo]

Didn't the same organization have wildly incorrect estimates of total deaths?

Those building the estimate models have been wrong...not by a little bit, but by a lot. And now, fauci is quoted as saying there will be 400k to 500k deaths by year's end, or something like that. Again, why anyone would listen to this idiot is beyond me.

 

[PopsNole]

Didn't the same organization have wildly incorrect estimates of total deaths?

Those building the estimate models have been wrong...not by a little bit, but by a lot. And now, fauci is quoted as saying there will be 400k to 500k deaths by year's end, or something like that. Again, why anyone would listen to this idiot is beyond me.

Dr. Fauci is an idiot? Who knew the preeminent infectious disease doctor of his day was actually an idiot when it comes to infectious disease.

To your point. That's not actually what he said. He said 300,000 to 400,000 people in total could die of it before a vaccine is widely available late next year. He didn't say by the end of the year. A University of Washington projection indicated 300k may die by 12/1.

 

[mjpwooo]

Dr. Fauci is an idiot? Who knew the preeminent infectious disease doctor of his day was actually an idiot when it comes to infectious disease.

To your point. That's not actually what he said. He said 300,000 to 400,000 people in total could die of it before a vaccine eliminates it. He didn't say by the end of the year. A University of Washington projection indicated 300k may die by 12/1.

I'll be more direct about fauci. he's a lifelong government employee who's been wrong in all his predictions, from HIV/AIDS to COVID19. His repeated 'changing his tune' and inconsistency the last 4-6 months are obvious.

And he's now gotten a real taste of fame from the media.

If he was in private enterprise, he'd be out of business or fired.

The media's reliance on him is the primary, but not only, reason for this shitstorm we are in.

 

[PopsNole]

I'll be more direct about fauci. he's a lifelong government employee who's been wrong in all his predictions, from HIV/AIDS to COVID19. His repeated 'changing his tune' and inconsistency the last 4-6 months are obvious.

And he's now gotten a real taste of fame from the media.

If he was in private enterprise, he'd be out of business or fired.

The media's reliance on him is the primary, but not only, reason for this shitstorm we are in.

His job is to make predictions about novel viruses as they learn about them. Of course his predictions are wrong. You make predictions with the information you have and then update those as more information and knowledge becomes available. That's how science works.

Similar to how hurricane models make predictions as to a hurricane's path based on the date at hand and the projected data as it approaches land. Then predicted path then changes as more data becomes available.

Or if you have vague symptoms and go to a doctor they'll guess as to the diagnosis based on on their own personal and historical analysis of diagnoses from those with similar symptoms. If the original diagnoses is wrong then they move to the next most likely diagnosis.

 

[mjpwooo]

pops, i think we'd be friends. you're rational, thoughtful, insightful.

but on this topic, we violently disagree. And that's okay. We're allowed to disagree, because we're at least respectful to each other (at least I try to be, and I know you are that way). and this is an inconsequential message board about fsu sports.....

fauci's predictions on this specific event in March was that MILLIONS OF AMERICANS were going to die. He was wrong, BUT EVERYONE reacted as if he was right. He has reacted as if he was right. His refusal to comment (that I've heard) that his and everyone's predictions were orders of magnitude wrong, and the long-term damage those incorrect predictions have caused is troubling, at the least.

again, if he was in private business, he'd be out of business. only in government, can someone be so wrong so often and keep his/her position. I'd also imagine...he's not missed out on any of his paychecks like MANY MANY people in this country have, due to his continued 'predictions'.

 

[PopsNole]

pops, i think we'd be friends. you're rational, thoughtful, insightful.

but on this topic, we violently disagree. And that's okay. We're allowed to disagree, because we're at least respectful to each other (at least I try to be, and I know you are that way). and this is an inconsequential message board about fsu sports.....

fauci's predictions on this specific event in March was that MILLIONS OF AMERICANS were going to die. He was wrong, BUT EVERYONE reacted as if he was right. He has reacted as if he was right. His refusal to comment (that I've heard) that his and everyone's predictions were orders of magnitude wrong, and the long-term damage those incorrect predictions have caused is troubling, at the least.

again, if he was in private business, he'd be out of business. only in government, can someone be so wrong so often and keep his/her position. I'd also imagine...he's not missed out on any of his paychecks like MANY MANY people in this country have, due to his continued 'predictions'.

If he was in private business his job would involve treating infectious disease, which I'm sure he's more than capable of doing. Unfortunately for him, his job involves contributing to public policy based on little information or at best very incomplete information to help prevent the death of Americans. An infectious disease expert, when they're the ones making the call, are going to side in favor of taking immediate action in case of the worst case scenario. China was being hammered. Italy was being hammered. Spain was starting to be hammered. Then it is in the US. He did what I hope any doctor would do and do what he can to prevent the deaths of as many people as possible. Better than doing very little and the virus turning out to be as bad as predicted and there being actually millions of people dead. It's pure health risk analysis.

 

[mjpwooo]

His "preventing of as many deaths as possible" may have backfired.......this has destroyed the economy (although coming back), and indirectly may kill more people by a significant margin.

Risk analysis of the longterm effects (poverty, drug use, starvation, child abuse, suicide, delayed medical procedures)... How many millions will die and/or be affected here? Risk analysis factors all these things, and sure as heck didn't happen until now... And it is too late.

If he was in private business his job would involve treating infectious disease, which I'm sure he's more than capable of doing. Unfortunately for him, his job involves contributing to public policy based on little information or at best very incomplete information to help prevent the death of Americans. An infectious disease expert, when they're the ones making the call, are going to side in favor of taking immediate action in case of the worst case scenario. China was being hammered. Italy was being hammered. Spain was starting to be hammered. Then it is in the US. He did what I hope any doctor would do and do what he can to prevent the deaths of as many people as possible. Better than doing very little and the virus turning out to be as bad as predicted and there being actually millions of people dead. It's pure health risk analysis.

 

[ChiefWB]

I appreciate the situation Dr. Fauci is in. But the disservice he did this country in beginning advising against masks is not something the preeminent infectious disease Doctor of his day should be doing. Especially if his entire career has shown him otherwise. It was weak and it looks political in hindsight. He should have stuck with the science as per his job title.

 

[Scalphunter]

Absolutely I'd go. Because I'm not on death's doorstep with multiple comorbidities, and I know that I have a better chance of dying in a car accident on the way to the game. But hey keep fear mongering!

The US Center for Disease Control (CDC) has released an update to their research on the fatality rate associated with COVID-19. The CDC first posted this data on May 20, 2020, with the understanding that the parameter values would be updated and augmented over time. This update, dated September 10th, is based on data received by CDC through August 8, 2020.

A quick summary of COVID-19 survival rates is shown below. The summary is based on the CDC table provided at the end of this report.

CDC COVID-19 Survival Rates

• Age 0-19 — 99.997%
• Age 20-49 — 99.98%
• Age 50-69 — 99.5%
• Age 70+ — 94.6%

CDC Table on COVID-19 Scenarios
Source

Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR): The number of individuals who die of the disease among all infected individuals (symptomatic and asymptomatic). This parameter is not necessarily equivalent to the number of reported deaths per reported case because many cases and deaths are never confirmed to be COVID-19, and there is a lag in time between when people are infected and when they die. This parameter also reflects the existing standard of care, which may vary by location and may be affected by the introduction of new therapeutics.

 

[chumleynole]

to me it seems like NFL is the better gig for any successful coach for one reason. no recruiting 15 to 20 year old kids.

250,000 is a big number and it gets used metaphorically like a club, to beat back any thoughts that don't line up with people that are the most frightened by the virus. I would like people to think objectively about 250,000 deaths. How many people in that 250k would already have passed, with no Covid. I'm very confident that it would be a really large part of that 250k

Actually this is easy to figure out. There is a category that is tracked called excess deaths. These are the number of people that have died this year above last year. The number of excess deaths is actually higher then the number of deaths reported to Covid. It is more likely that the number is undercounted then overcounted. So it can be assumed that of the 250k that have died would have had more time on this planet without Covid. Some would have only had short amount of time but there are many otheres that were robbed of many more years of life.

 

[mjpwooo]

please link to the excess mortality for the last 5 years. Thanks.

Also, what's the breakdown of the ~215k people that have died, by age and by where they lived (ie, LTC facility vs at home). I am not saying LTC lives are less important that any other...far from it. But to not recognize the lifespan of the sick who are in LTC's is willfully ignorant. This point was made above, by I believe @Deerfuel2 .

 

[ChiefWB]

So it can be assumed that of the 250k that have died

Where is this number coming from? You state it so matter-of-factly.

 

[Southboundnole]

Getting back to the original question, No I would not attend with a full house.
But I would with the way it’s set up now.

 

[Spearhead04]

Not sure how I feel about it.
773,000 cases here in Florida. Of that number a little over 15,000 have been serious enough to be admitted to a hospital.
I'll continue to be cautious. And I'll wear my mask...

Actually it’s 15k deaths. Far more hospitalizations.

 

[chumleynole]

Where is this number coming from? You state it so matter-of-factly.

The CDC tracks this and you can access it on their website. This is a well know number. The University of Pennsylvania has a published article where they estimate that deaths related to Covid are likely 36% higher then the numbers currently show. They base this largely on excess deaths. I read an article early in the Pandemic that stated even the excess death total was probably undercounting the number of deaths because accidental deaths were way down due to the lockdown. When we view this time historically it will factor into the number of deaths attributed to this pandemic. The excess death number has been around for many years and it one of the ways people figure out how many influenza deaths occur each year.

 

[chumleynole]

pops, i think we'd be friends. you're rational, thoughtful, insightful.

but on this topic, we violently disagree. And that's okay. We're allowed to disagree, because we're at least respectful to each other (at least I try to be, and I know you are that way). and this is an inconsequential message board about fsu sports.....

fauci's predictions on this specific event in March was that MILLIONS OF AMERICANS were going to die. He was wrong, BUT EVERYONE reacted as if he was right. He has reacted as if he was right. His refusal to comment (that I've heard) that his and everyone's predictions were orders of magnitude wrong, and the long-term damage those incorrect predictions have caused is troubling, at the least.

again, if he was in private business, he'd be out of business. only in government, can someone be so wrong so often and keep his/her position. I'd also imagine...he's not missed out on any of his paychecks like MANY MANY people in this country have, due to his continued 'predictions'.

He did not predict millions would die. He said in the worst case scenario that could happen. He actually predicted 100 to 200k. He was wrong on the latter prediction because deaths have exceeded that number. If we never get a vaccine he could ultimately be right on the other one.

 

[goldmom]

Actually it’s 15k deaths. Far more hospitalizations.

You're correct, and thank you for that. It's closer to 45,000 people who've been hospitalized. Approximately 0.06 percent of those who test positive are hospitalized. Of the nearly 773,000 cases, 15,000 persons have lost their battle with the virus. That's 0.019 percent.
When estimating the percentage of fatalities among Florida's total population, estimated at 21,000,000 persons, the percentage of fatalities is around 0.0007 percent.
We all know someone who's had it, and we either know someone who passed away, or know someone who knows someone.
I think we can all say we're so, so ready for this to go away entirely. If it takes another couple of months, we should be patient and do it.
And get a flu shot.

 

[Spearhead04]

You have to go back to August 14th for the daily u.s. count to match today. Not a great trend. And I agree with goldie, I am sick of this virus and the year it has caused. I want to take my son to packed ball games again and every other thing we Americans love to do for fun. Hopefully the vaccine is approved soon.

 

[ChiefWB]

You have to go back to August 14th for the daily u.s. count to match today. Not a great trend. And I agree with goldie, I am sick of this virus and the year it has caused. I want to take my son to packed ball games again and every other thing we Americans love to do for fun. Hopefully the vaccine is approved soon.

Illinois had over 3000 positive tests today for the first time in almost 5 months. There were also over 72,000 tests administered. That comes out to a little more than 4%, which is average for the state. In other words, the numbers are only as good as the context they are delivered.

 

[Spearhead04]

I guess that explains why it’s neighboring state Wisconsin is setting up a field hospital to accommodate the surge in covid patients...there’s more tests probably because there’s more demand for tests as in more sick people.

 

[ChiefWB]

I guess that explains why it’s neighboring state Wisconsin is setting up a field hospital to accommodate the surge in covid patients...there’s more tests probably because there’s more demand for tests as in more sick people.

Illinois has been testing a large amount of people for the last two months. Still hovering around 4%. But that’s not the story of course.

 

[goldmom]

I guess that explains why it’s neighboring state Wisconsin is setting up a field hospital to accommodate the surge in covid patients...there’s more tests probably because there’s more demand for tests as in more sick people.

Or they could suspend elective procedures that require ICU stays - even short ones.

 

[mjpwooo]

He did not predict millions would die. He said in the worst case scenario that could happen. He actually predicted 100 to 200k. He was wrong on the latter prediction because deaths have exceeded that number. If we never get a vaccine he could ultimately be right on the other one.

Please provide the quote where he predicted 100k-200k, along with average # of deaths for the last five years.

 

[chumleynole]

Please provide the quote where he predicted 100k-200k, along with average # of deaths for the last five years.

I do not believe that I am here to do research for you. This information is as easy to access as getting on this forum.. Below is his quote from an interview in April.

Dr. Anthony Fauci said based on modeling of the current pace of the coronavirus' spread in the U.S., "between 100,000 and 200,000" people may die from COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

 

[ChiefWB]

Please provide the quote where he predicted 100k-200k, along with average # of deaths for the last five years.

I am learning that people just get to throw numbers out without anything to back them up. I have asked for links to data in this thread a few times and the posters disappear. Hard to have a serious conversation when people get to contrive their “facts”.

 

[chumleynole]

I am learning that people just get to throw numbers out without anything to back them up. I have asked for links to data in this thread a few times and the posters disappear. Hard to have a serious conversation when people get to contrive their “facts”.

These numbers are widely available. The only social media I use is this site. If you google excess deaths you can verify them. You can also look at the source and see if you trust them. The problem as I see it is people getting their information from facebook or from special interest sites. Why should someone have to provide you link when all you have to do is google it and you can verify it yourself. The quotes and numbers are not debatable if you bother to check. If you dispute link your evidence otherwise.

 

[mjpwooo]

These numbers are widely available. The only social media I use is this site. If you google excess deaths you can verify them. You can also look at the source and see if you trust them. The problem as I see it is people getting their information from facebook or from special interest sites. Why should someone have to provide you link when all you have to do is google it and you can verify it yourself. The quotes and numbers are not debatable if you bother to check. If you dispute link your evidence otherwise.

If you want to tell me I'm wrong, have facts with evidence. I can create any quote from anyone and say it's true. If you're going to say excess deaths are up, prove it. Otherwise, it's BS.

Now, chum...who's quote is this????

""If you look at the masks that you buy in a drug store, the leakage around that doesn't really do much to protect you," he said. "People start saying, 'Should I start wearing a mask?' Now, in the United States, there is absolutely no reason whatsoever to wear a mask."

It's from USAToday, Feb 17, 2020. I'll post the link shortly....once you tell me who said the above and when I get those excess mortality numbers from 5 years. Until then, I'll assume you're not ready to have a serious, grown up discussion.

 

[chumleynole]

If you want to tell me I'm wrong, have facts with evidence. I can create any quote from anyone and say it's true. If you're going to say excess deaths are up, prove it. Otherwise, it's BS.

Now, chum...who's quote is this????

""If you look at the masks that you buy in a drug store, the leakage around that doesn't really do much to protect you," he said. "People start saying, 'Should I start wearing a mask?' Now, in the United States, there is absolutely no reason whatsoever to wear a mask."

It's from USAToday, Feb 17, 2020. I'll post the link shortly....once you tell me who said the above and when I get those excess mortality numbers from 5 years. Until then, I'll assume you're not ready to have a serious, grown up discussion.

Nonsense. You stated Fauci predicted millions would die without a link. I questioned that and looked it up. You were wrong. I do not have to do research for you but because what you are stating is inaccurate clearly someone does.

 

[bookernole]

There have been 213,000 deaths to date. 15,000 in Florida (12,000 in the last 3 months and one week).

I know I know I know, there was 1 motorcycle death classified incorrectly.

.

 

[mjpwooo]

 

[mjpwooo]

"It could approach the spanish flu in seriousness".....do you want more quotes?

 

[mjpwooo]

Interview from Jan 21.....QUOTES FROM YOUR BOY TONY.....

"“Obviously, you need to take it seriously, and do the kinds of things that the CDC and the Department of Homeland Security are doing, ” Fauci responded. “But, this not a major threat for the people of the United States, and this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about.” (I added the bold, italics, underline)

 

[ChiefWB]

Coronavirus May Kill 100,000 to 240,000 in U.S. Despite Actions, Officials Say (Published 2020)

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, and Dr. Deborah L. Birx, who is coordinating the response, called it “our real number” but pledged to try to reduce it.

www.nytimes.com

100000 to 240000 was their initial prediction. They also said millions would die without intervention.

 

[ChiefWB]

Interview from Jan 21.....QUOTES FROM YOUR BOY TONY.....

"“Obviously, you need to take it seriously, and do the kinds of things that the CDC and the Department of Homeland Security are doing, ” Fauci responded. “But, this not a major threat for the people of the United States, and this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about.” (I added the bold, italics, underline)

He was wrong more than once during this. It appears the science has let us down almost as much as the politics.

 

[bookernole]

"It could approach the spanish flu in seriousness".....do you want more quotes?

Quotes from POTUS? There are thousands if you are Interested.

.

 

[mjpwooo]

Quotes from POTUS? There are thousands if you are Interested.

.

I'm not talking about the president. I'm talking about a scientist who changes his tune depending on who he's talking to, and who's opinion, public policy has been based.

 

[mjpwooo]

Coronavirus May Kill 100,000 to 240,000 in U.S. Despite Actions, Officials Say (Published 2020)

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, and Dr. Deborah L. Birx, who is coordinating the response, called it “our real number” but pledged to try to reduce it.

www.nytimes.com

100000 to 240000 was their initial prediction. They also said millions would die without intervention.

Thank you for posting. I don't click on the NYT ever since they effed with Jameis. But I believe what you are saying.

 

[chumleynole]

I am learning that people just get to throw numbers out without anything to back them up. I have asked for links to data in this thread a few times and the posters disappear. Hard to have a serious conversation when people get to contrive their “facts”.

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-03-29/anthony-fauci-us-coronavirus-deaths-could-near-200-000

I am learning how uninformed most people are on the virus. This information and the numbers associated with this information is widely available to those that are intellectually curious. If I posted the time for sunrise tomorrow would you ask for a link?