COVID cancellations coming

[Dhersh]

where do you find the RT value?

The R value of a virus is it's reproduction value. It indicates how many people one infected person could pass the disease on to, on average.

Each virus starts with R0 or R-naught which is the initial reproduction number. Rt refers to the effective reproduction number, or the reproduction number at a point in time.

Rt is constantly changing and 1 is the threshold value:

• An Rt of 1.0, means a virus is endemic and will persist over time.
• An Rt greater than 1.0 means the virus is spreading fast.
• An Rt less than 1.0 means the infection is not spreading. It means that the number of people being infected on average will get fewer over time and if this situation continues, the disease will eventually die out.

 

[Mercutio]

New more dangerous variants could come from the vaccinated. The fact that it is so prevalent in vaccinated people, should give anyone that is thinking for themselves, pause

That is completely BS.

Mutations occur during replication. Replication in vaccinated people as dramatically less than an unvaccinated people. Yes it could happen but the odds are not in its favor.

 

[fsufool]

where do you find the RT value?

Several different sites have models.
This is the one I go to: https://covidestim.org
Go down to the state you are interested in and click Details. Then click on county if you want county details.

 

[fsufool]

Several different sites have models.
This is the one I go to: https://covidestim.org
Go down to the state you are interested in and click Details. Then click on county if you want county details.

One more comment this morning. I saw a headline screaming that children made up 15% of Covid cases last week. I thought that doesn't sound like a high number, I should look up what it has been in the past. Didn't have too because right in the posted article it said. Since the beginning children have made up 14.3% of infections. So, a week with 5% above normal is worthy of a huge headline? Then it went on to quote some doctor saying we don't know what the long term effects are? Which is technically true, but it is also technically true to say it is impossible to know and we can assume there are no long time effects.
So what is the point of the headline and article? Just to fear monger.

 

[Mercutio]

One more comment this morning. I saw a headline screaming that children made up 15% of Covid cases last week. I thought that doesn't sound like a high number, I should look up what it has been in the past. Didn't have too because right in the posted article it said. Since the beginning children have made up 14.3% of infections. So, a week with 5% above normal is worthy of a huge headline? Then it went on to quote some doctor saying we don't know what the long term effects are? Which is technically true, but it is also technically true to say it is impossible to know and we can assume there are no long time effects.
So what is the point of the headline and article? Just to fear monger.

Perhaps they were unaware of the historical numbers?

I am quite surprised that they are that high.

 

[PopsNole]

That is completely BS.

Mutations occur during replication. Replication in vaccinated people as dramatically less than an unvaccinated people. Yes it could happen but the odds are not in its favor.

We're now at the supervillain vaccine theory that the vaccinated are so strong against the virus that the mutations in our bodies by any covid infection will lead to the Covid-Thanos variant and so we shouldn't get vaccinated.

 

[Mercutio]

We're now at the supervillain vaccine theory that the vaccinated are so strong against the virus that the mutations in our bodies by any covid infection will lead to the Covid-Thanos variant and so we shouldn't get vaccinated.

It will be bad when our chins morph...

Not a good look!

 

[GbrNole]

It will be bad when our chins morph...

Not a good look!

All your base are belong to u.... rban meyer?

oh hell no!

 

[Mercutio]

All your base are belong to u.... rban meyer?

oh hell no!

nein sprechen sie

 

[mxhudso]

https://banned.video/watch?id=6112fba9564c9244e5f32e60

 

[ColoNole1]

When it comes to football it is not important.

The sorriest part is that if games get cancelled, it all could have been prevented.

Pretty amazing, the resistance. The polio vax flew into Americans arms, and in its worse year (52-53) it took 3,000 lives against Covid's 61,000+ and counting. Resistance wasn't an agenda item back then, I guess.

 

[goldmom]

Pretty amazing, the resistance. The polio vax flew into Americans arms, and in its worse year (52-53) it took 3,000 lives against Covid's 61,000+ and counting. Resistance wasn't an agenda item back then, I guess.

The US population was less than half what it is now. I was a toddler then and don't remember much, but my Mom said that everyone kept their children indoors in the heat of the day and many avoided public swimming pools. It was a disease that hit kids more often. I imagine that hearing that 3,000 died was enormously scary to postwar parents, but remember far many more got polio and lived, but were crippled for life.

 

[ColoNole1]

The US population was less than half what it is now. I was a toddler then and don't remember much, but my Mom said that everyone kept their children indoors in the heat of the day and many avoided public swimming pools. It was a disease that hit kids more often. I imagine that hearing that 3,000 died was enormously scary to postwar parents, but remember far many more got polio and lived, but were crippled for life.

I was around then too, not yet a teen. I remember being afraid. I think my family kids got a shot very quickly, and without controvery. So why don't folks get this one when Covid's killed 30 times more Americans this year than polio in its WORST year? Granted we don't have counterparts to the big rooms filled with kids (that scared me the worst) although old guys dying alone, badly, sure works for me. But I believe most who refuse do so based on suasion other than medical.

 

[Random_John]

I was around then too, not yet a teen. I remember being afraid. I think my family kids got a shot very quickly, and without controvery. So why don't folks get this one when Covid's killed 30 times more Americans this year than polio in its WORST year? Granted we don't have counterparts to the big rooms filled with kids (that scared me the worst) although old guys dying alone, badly, sure works for me. But I believe most who refuse do so based on suasion other than medical.

Not to mention the arguments against it are fundamentally flawed.

 

[GbrNole]

I was around then too, not yet a teen. I remember being afraid. I think my family kids got a shot very quickly, and without controvery. So why don't folks get this one when Covid's killed 30 times more Americans this year than polio in its WORST year? Granted we don't have counterparts to the big rooms filled with kids (that scared me the worst) although old guys dying alone, badly, sure works for me. But I believe most who refuse do so based on suasion other than medical.

it's not like polio just popped up out of nowhere and surprised everyone. it was infecting on average 25,000 people per year in the US before the big post-war outbreak in the early 50's. there had also been various polio vaccines available for 20 years before that outbreak and the key breakthrough study, that ultimately led to Salk's vaccine, had been completed 4-years before that outbreak.

i suppose the question is whether the current crop of vaccines for COVID are closer to Kolmer's or Salk's if we're going to use polio as a measuring stick?

 

[QuaZ2002]

I don’t remember which thread I was posting updates on COVID patients in one fairly large hospital system data but here’s the latest and wow is it even more impressive data for the vaccine than I expected...
- 86% of all COVID + patients in hospital are unvaxxed
- 96% of all COVID + patients in ICU are unvaxxed

it’s remarkable how much of a non issue this would be right now if more people had just gotten vaccinated.

 

[GbrNole]

I don’t remember which thread I was posting updates on COVID patients in one fairly large hospital system data but here’s the latest and wow is it even more impressive data for the vaccine than I expected...
- 86% of all COVID + patients in hospital are unvaxxed
- 96% of all COVID + patients in ICU are unvaxxed

it’s remarkable how much of a non issue this would be right now if more people had just gotten vaccinated.

that unfortunately is still quite dependent on the definition of unvaccinated. you can be double jabbed and 13 days past the second jab and you're still being admitted as an unvaccinated patient.

we can clearly see in miami dade where 99.9% of people 65+ have received at least one dose of vaccine, but they make up nearly 40% of the recent hospital admissions, that we are still playing games with definitions when the hospitals report that 90+ percent are unvaccinated.

it's mathematically and statistically improbable for those numbers in miami dade to be truly unvaccinated (i.e. no vaccine whatsoever) without the CDC's definition.

 

[chumleynole]

https://banned.video/watch?id=6112fba9564c9244e5f32e60

I assume that you posted this to show us there was one nut job physician in the United States. I will clue you in. We already knew that. I dare you to google what other Drs. say about his statements. 96 percent of physicians are vaccinated. Spoiler alert. Other physicians say that he is telling outright lies. There has always been quacks in the medical field. They just have not always had videos made of them.

 

[Dhersh]

I assume that you posted this to show us there was one nut job physician in the United States. I will clue you in. We already knew that. I dare you to google what other Drs. say about his statements. 96 percent of physicians are vaccinated. Spoiler alert. Other physicians say that he is telling outright lies. There has always been quacks in the medical field. They just have not always had videos made of them.

On the other hand, the science field is full of quacks. That is why very few studies are well received lol

 

[QuaZ2002]

that unfortunately is still quite dependent on the definition of unvaccinated. you can be double jabbed and 13 days past the second jab and you're still being admitted as an unvaccinated patient.

we can clearly see in miami dade where 99.9% of people 65+ have received at least one dose of vaccine, but they still make up nearly 40% of the recent hospital admissions, that we are still playing games with definitions when the hospitals report that 90+ percent are unvaccinated.

it's mathematically and statistically improbable for those numbers in miami dade to be truly unvaccinated (i.e. no vaccine whatsoever) without the CDC's definition.

Their definition is 2 weeks out from 2nd shot. Or 1 J&J. Very clear on that in other stuff I’ve read. Not sure about Miami. I question the accuracy that 99.9% of elderly in Miami have gotten even one dose. But if they haven’t gotten the 2nd dose they probably aren’t very protected. The fact remains if you’re fully vaxxed your chances of dying or even ending up in ICU are much much much less than if you’re not.

 

[GbrNole]

Their definition is 2 weeks out from 2nd shot. Or 1 J&J. Very clear on that in other stuff I’ve read. Not sure about Miami. I question the accuracy that 99.9% of elderly in Miami have gotten even one dose. But if they haven’t gotten the 2nd dose they probably aren’t very protected. The fact remains if you’re fully vaxxed your chances of dying or even ending up in ICU are much much much less than if you’re not.

the 99.9% in miami dade is stated right on the CDC's website. nearly 92% of people 18+ in miami dade have had at least one shot. it is a very highly vaccinated county.

the Veterans Affairs study is also very clear with respect to vaccine efficacy with both pfizer and moderna being observed at 85% effective after one dose and both being 94% effective at any time after the second dose. that study ended at the end of March 21 when Delta had already been prevalent in the US for about 30 days.

 

[PopsNole]

Baycare hospitals are averaging 40% of all patients being there for Covid right now. 80% are unvaccinated.

 

[Dhersh]

that unfortunately is still quite dependent on the definition of unvaccinated. you can be double jabbed and 13 days past the second jab and you're still being admitted as an unvaccinated patient.

we can clearly see in miami dade where 99.9% of people 65+ have received at least one dose of vaccine, but they make up nearly 40% of the recent hospital admissions, that we are still playing games with definitions when the hospitals report that 90+ percent are unvaccinated.

it's mathematically and statistically improbable for those numbers in miami dade to be truly unvaccinated (i.e. no vaccine whatsoever) without the CDC's definition.

Just a note on the 2 week thing for full vaccination. According to the CDC:

The timing of the evaluation of vaccine efficacy (VE) against COVID-19 in trial participants varied by manufacturer’s protocol design: Pfizer-BioNTech’s protocol evaluated VE at >7 days after dose 2; Moderna’s evaluated VE at >14 days after dose 2; and Janssen’s evaluated VE >14 days and >28 days after the single dose. For consistency in public health post-vaccination guidance, a single time interval (i.e., >2 weeks) is used for the definition of fully vaccinated.

 

[SteveT1]

Concert at Austin city limit canceled 4 hrs before doors open tonight because fully vaccinated band member tested positive for covid

 

[chumleynole]

Concert at Austin city limit canceled 4 hrs before doors open tonight because fully vaccinated band member tested positive for covid

What is your point. If the vaccine was 90 percent effective you would still have breakthrough cases at a rate of 1 out of 10. Most vaccines other then Moderna are no where near that effective against Delta. Your odds of severe illness if vaccinated are much lower then if you are not. If you get the shot much better chance of not getting the virus and if you do will have a better outcome. This is not rocket science.

 

[ColoNole1]

I don’t remember which thread I was posting updates on COVID patients in one fairly large hospital system data but here’s the latest and wow is it even more impressive data for the vaccine than I expected...
- 86% of all COVID + patients in hospital are unvaxxed
- 96% of all COVID + patients in ICU are unvaxxed

it’s remarkable how much of a non issue this would be right now if more people had just gotten vaccinated.

A lot of people would give anything for a normal season unaffected by Covids. Well, except get vaxed. They won't get vaxed.

 

[SteveT1]

What is your point. If the vaccine was 90 percent effective you would still have breakthrough cases at a rate of 1 out of 10. Most vaccines other then Moderna are no where near that effective against Delta. Your odds of severe illness if vaccinated are much lower then if you are not. If you get the shot much better chance of not getting the virus and if you do will have a better outcome. This is not rocket science.

Who said he had delta? Seems odd for vaccinated individuals traveling with other vaccinated folks, social distancing, wearing masks, etc., to test positive for covid. Obviously can happen, but you’d expect itd not be the norm. Wild it happened to vaccinated nc state baseball players too.

 

[GbrNole]

A lot of people would give anything for a normal season unaffected by Covids. Well, except get vaxed. They won't get vaxed.

except an awful lot of these "unvaccinated" people have actually received some dose of the vaccine. they just haven't reached the definition of "fully vaccinated" yet.

 

[QuaZ2002]

except an awful lot of these "unvaccinated" people have actually received some dose of the vaccine. they just haven't reached the definition of "fully vaccinated" yet.

But it’s really easy to reach that. I’m surprised you guys are strangely focusing on that. I’m telling you first hand data from a fairly large hospital system in FL. The numbers are astounding and they aren’t moving the goalposts. It’s not like 4 months ago you were considered fully vaxxed after 1 dose, it’s always been 14 days after 2 doses. I don’t have data for half vaxxed but I’m guessing it would fall in the middle in terms of effectiveness.

 

[GbrNole]

But it’s really easy to reach that. I’m surprised you guys are strangely focusing on that. I’m telling you first hand data from a fairly large hospital system in FL. The numbers are astounding and they aren’t moving the goalposts. It’s not like 4 months ago you were considered fully vaxxed after 1 dose, it’s always been 14 days after 2 doses. I don’t have data for half vaxxed but I’m guessing it would fall in the middle in terms of effectiveness.

this is from the 92,000 person VA study for vaccine efficacy.

 

[QuaZ2002]

this is from the 92,000 person VA study for vaccine efficacy.

This study barely covers the delta variant. You said above it was “prevalent” in the US for 30 days of this study. That’s not true. Delta only comprised a tiny amount of the infections into early April. The number I see is 0.1%. The VA study data was collected only up until March unless I’m seeing this wrong.

 

[GbrNole]

This study barely covers the delta variant. You said above it was “prevalent” in the US for 30 days of this study. That’s not true. Delta only comprised a tiny amount of the infections into early April. The number I see is 0.1%. The VA study data was collected only up until March unless I’m seeing this wrong.

until the end of March. the point of the matter is that the first dose alone was found to be 85% effective alone and improved to 95% immediately after taking the second dose.

i have zero data to back it up but i might hazard to guess that a single dose in the first month of taking it based on the above data is similarly as effective as 2 doses 6-7 months post fully vaccinated?

 

[ColoNole1]

this is from the 92,000 person VA study for vaccine efficacy.

I heard on the news today Florida's rate is now among the worst in the world--right up there with Botswana. If we want a a season un-marred by multiple Covids incidents, A ton of people need to screw up their courage and get jabbed. And soon.

 

[chumleynole]

Who said he had delta? Seems odd for vaccinated individuals traveling with other vaccinated folks, social distancing, wearing masks, etc., to test positive for covid. Obviously can happen, but you’d expect itd not be the norm. Wild it happened to vaccinated nc state baseball players too.

Steve what you are doing is the same think a lot of people with viewpoints similar to you are doing. You are giving us the example of one person who tested positive on a day when over 100,000 people across the country tested positive and you are referring to that one breakthrough infection as the norm. Those were your words. It was an exception. Not the norm. It does not matter what variant it was.

 

[mjpwooo]

Funny, I know a bunch of people in Tampa, all got the vaccine. And all have gotten covid again, and all have been sick as dogs, with one having a 105 temp. Anecdotes, of course. But I fail to see the benefit of me and my kids getting the vaccine with a shitty real world (what I have seen) track record, with no clue what the long term effects will be.

 

[chumleynole]

Funny, I know a bunch of people in Tampa, all got the vaccine. And all have gotten covid again, and all have been sick as dogs, with one having a 105 temp. Anecdotes, of course. But I fail to see the benefit of me and my kids getting the vaccine with a shitty real world (what I have seen) track record, with no clue what the long term effects will be.

I know about 100 people who have gotten the virus. One was vaccinated. Did not get very sick. He has serious co morbidities and auto immune issues. Many of the unvaccinated cases had serious complications. Some came very close to death with long hospital stays. 2 may have life long debilitating issues that prevent them from ever working again. My experience coincides with the statistics being presented by the scientific community. What I keep repeating is that your chances of having health issues from the vaccine are tiny when compared to your chances of having health issues from a Covid infection. There is no data to support a contrary viewpoint.

 

[mjpwooo]

I know about 100 people who have gotten the virus. One was vaccinated. Did not get very sick. He has serious co morbidities and auto immune issues. Many of the unvaccinated cases had serious complications. Some came very close to death with long hospital stays. 2 may have life long debilitating issues that prevent them from ever working again. My experience coincides with the statistics being presented by the scientific community. What I keep repeating is that your chances of having health issues from the vaccine are tiny when compared to your chances of having health issues from a Covid infection. There is no data to support a contrary viewpoint.

How about in 3 years time? Can you please send me the scientific data that this won't have long term consequences?

 

[mjpwooo]

Wait.... You know 100 people that have gotten covid? I know like 20. And I know a lot of people. Not one has had any issues at all. Not one. Even the one with 105 fever that got vaccination. So I guess our frame of reference is different.

And no, I don't trust the scientific literature that a guy like fauci or the CDC director is offering.

 

[SteveT1]

Steve what you are doing is the same think a lot of people with viewpoints similar to you are doing. You are giving us the example of one person who tested positive on a day when over 100,000 people across the country tested positive and you are referring to that one breakthrough infection as the norm. Those were your words. It was an exception. Not the norm. It does not matter what variant it was.

It’s not just 1. There are many. I’m citing higher profile ones. I’m not anti-vax. I’m anti-vax mandates.

 

[Phyrst Timer]

I'm guessing there will always be those who choose 'not' to be vaccinated. I'm guessing every major program or Power 5 program--will have 95-100% vaccinations.

it's not choice....there is a part of the population that will not take them on the advice of a medical professional....for health related reasons...or they already contracted covid. There is much unknown still about vax effects-but they have proven to be overwhelmingly effective against all (known) strains of covid.