51% of all job tasks can be handled by today's automation

[GwinnettNole]

So says the article below.

I find this part interesting:
The future the McKinsey report suggests isn’t the alarmist dystopia of permanent mass unemployment. Instead, it suggests that people who enter the workforce, or can adapt to it, after this jerk forward will face a starkly unsaturated job market. The demand for labor, it says, will be far greater than the supply many developed countries will be able to provide if they want to hit their GDP growth aspirations.

I do think its premature to say everyone is going to get laid off and replaced by a machine. However, companies generally do not care about their employees in the sense of paying people vs letting folks go to improve the bottom line. Forget the next 4 years, the next 25 years will really be interesting to see how this plays out.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...automated-by-todays-technology-135331964.html

 

[FSUTribe76]

So says the article below.

I find this part interesting:
The future the McKinsey report suggests isn’t the alarmist dystopia of permanent mass unemployment. Instead, it suggests that people who enter the workforce, or can adapt to it, after this jerk forward will face a starkly unsaturated job market. The demand for labor, it says, will be far greater than the supply many developed countries will be able to provide if they want to hit their GDP growth aspirations.

I do think its premature to say everyone is going to get laid off and replaced by a machine. However, companies generally do not care about their employees in the sense of paying people vs letting folks go to improve the bottom line. Forget the next 4 years, the next 25 years will really be interesting to see how this plays out.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...automated-by-todays-technology-135331964.html

Just look at Mickey Ds. They're trying to automate the ordering process and the cooking. Pretty soon there may be just one sad 35 yo manager unable to bang his 16 yo employees sitting by and watching the machines process everyone's Big Mac order.

 

[GoNolesTX]

I've 100% been surveying the landscape in my profession. I'd like to sit back and say "computers can't do this job", but there is definitely some assistance that could be providing with some superior computer programming. The actual application of local/state/national statutes and common sense underwriting applications would still be a necessity for human interaction, the menial tasks could definitely be carried out by automation - which would save time and money.

 

[MIKE_G]

Just look at Mickey Ds. They're trying to automate the ordering process and the cooking. Pretty soon there may be just one sad 35 yo manager unable to bang his 16 yo employees sitting by and watching the machines process everyone's Big Mac order.

That dude is just gonna get creative with the new shake machine robot.

 

[GwinnettNole]

I've 100% been surveying the landscape in my profession. I'd like to sit back and say "computers can't do this job", but there is definitely some assistance that could be providing with some superior computer programming. The actual application of local/state/national statutes and common sense underwriting applications would still be a necessity for human interaction, the menial tasks could definitely be carried out by automation - which would save time and money.

The one job segment that could actually grow during all this is IT jobs (software development, DBA, Support, Project Management) because you will still need to program the robots and ensure that work is being done. I'm a software test (QA) manager and I know this work can and should be automated for the most part...

 

[NDallasRuss]

Just look at Mickey Ds. They're trying to automate the ordering process and the cooking. Pretty soon there may be just one sad 35 yo manager unable to bang his 16 yo employees sitting by and watching the machines process everyone's Big Mac order.

In the case of fast food, the employees are actually the weak link to an otherwise efficient process. At least robots would get the orders right, and would be less likely to try and mess with your food.

 

[seminole97]

Just look at Mickey Ds. They're trying to automate the ordering process and the cooking. Pretty soon there may be just one sad 35 yo manager unable to bang his 16 yo employees sitting by and watching the machines process everyone's Big Mac order.

As governments keep driving up the price of labor the one thing we can be certain of is lower demand for that labor.

In 1850 nearly 2/3rds of Americans lived on farms. Go back 100 years and nearly 1/3rd of Americans lived on farms, now its less than 2%.
I don't think my grandfather, a man who grew up on a farm and owned a small one his whole life, could have reasonably been expected to fathom how is son and grandson would find employment (IT).
Biggest threat to employment isn't automation, it's the arbitrary outlawing of employment through additional costs, or precluding exchanges at rates third parties don't like.

 

[GoNolesTX]

In the case of fast food, the employees are actually the weak link to an otherwise efficient process. At least robots would get the orders right, and would be less likely to try and mess with your food.

Does this look like oil to you?

 

[GwinnettNole]

As governments keep driving up the price of labor the one thing we can be certain of is lower demand for that labor.

In 1850 nearly 2/3rds of Americans lived on farms. Go back 100 years and nearly 1/3rd of Americans lived on farms, now its less than 2%.
I don't think my grandfather, a man who grew up on a farm and owned a small one his whole life, could have reasonably been expected to fathom how is son and grandson would find employment (IT).
Biggest threat to employment isn't automation, it's the arbitrary outlawing of employment through additional costs, or precluding exchanges at rates third parties don't like.

Please expand (put in English for this dummy) on the last paragraph?
I'm assuming its partly that you believe that increasing wages are a bigger threat to employment than automation is?

 

[DanC78]

The one job segment that could actually grow during all this is IT jobs (software development, DBA, Support, Project Management) because you will still need to program the robots and ensure that work is being done. I'm a software test (QA) manager and I know this work can and should be automated for the most part...

And sales...someone one has to sell these machines

 

[LesClaypool]

Tom Smykowski: Well-well look. I already told you: I deal with the damn customers so the engineers don't have to. I have people skills; I am good at dealing with people. Can't you understand that? What the hell is wrong with you people?

 

[ohio#1nolefan]

Sounds like a great plan to destroy the economy..

 

[NDallasRuss]

Sounds like a great plan to destroy the economy..

The economy has been changing since cavemen were trading seashells for animal hides. Always has, always will be. We survived the transitions from agrarian, to industrial, to service based, to whatever this will be - "the information economy"? Bottom line is still adapt or perish.

 

[Random_John]

I am an IT recruiter and I see companies automating things all of the time. Companies hire specialists like the QA above to say what needs to be automated to the programmers who write the automation codes.

The way I see it the old fashioned office assistant is going to go by the wayside. However, it is the company that is able to mix automation with genuinely happy customer facing personnel (i.e. helpdesk, customer support, etc.) that will be the true winner. in the movie Demolition Man we learned that company is Taco Bell. I watched that movie the other day and I love that people were carrying around Ipads before the idea had been dreamed up by Mr. jobs.

 

[seminole97]

Please expand (put in English for this dummy) on the last paragraph?
I'm assuming its partly that you believe that increasing wages are a bigger threat to employment than automation is?

Wage increases are possible by improving productivity, not by fiat.
"All demand curves are falling, and the demand for hiring labor is no exception. Hence, laws that prohibit employment at any wage that is relevant to the market (a minimum wage of 10 cents an hour would have little or no impact) must result in outlawing employment and hence causing unemployment. - Murray Rothbard.
'Employer share' taxes and regulations that drive up wage costs have the same effect. Not passing judgement on the value of those things to society on net, just keeping in mind their impact.

 

[Noleguy06]

time for people to read up on Universal Basic Income

 

[GoNolesTX]

time for people to read up on Universal Basic Income

Sounds like a caring act that's affordable. No thanks, been down that foxhole before.

 

[seminole97]

time for people to read up on Universal Basic Income

Paying people to do nothing strikes me as worse than allowing people to be paid for doing something.
I'd suggest folks read "Basic Economics" or "Wealth, Poverty and Politics", by Thomas Sowell, instead.

 

[funksouljon]

Alright you mouth breathers, I'm off the Elysium. You keep sending me those TPS reports and everything will be fine.

 

[Noleguy06]

Sounds like a caring act that's affordable. No thanks, been down that foxhole before.

Whether you like it or not, with the way automation is going, UBI has a better shot of happening than not.

 

[Noleguy06]

Paying people to do nothing strikes me as worse than allowing people to be paid for doing something.
I'd suggest folks read "Basic Economics" or "Wealth, Poverty and Politics", by Thomas Sowell, instead.

You could read a bunch of pier reviewed studies on UBI too and it wouldn't change your opinion either. I'm not even saying I'm for it, it's just UBI is going to happen if we keep this automation pace up.

 

[SoddyNole]

A cinder block could take my place and probably do a better job.

 

[surfnole]

The key is "can adapt to it"

The majority of the population will never be smart enough to program computers or solve complex problems. The average IQ is 100. What will these people do? Maybe be gardeners......Retraining a laid off assembly line worker to be a programmer is often a joke. They won't ever have the ability.

There's all kinds of things that can be automated and with growing Artificial Intelligence there may be less need for most human labor.

Elon Musk has commented on the same. http://fortune.com/2016/11/06/elon-musk-universal-basic-income/

 

[NoleMoreTears]

The one job segment that could actually grow during all this is IT jobs (software development, DBA, Support, Project Management) because you will still need to program the robots and ensure that work is being done. I'm a software test (QA) manager and I know this work can and should be automated for the most part...

And health care...

 

[seminole97]

You could read a bunch of pier reviewed studies on UBI too and it wouldn't change your opinion either.

If you could point me to any literature, peer reviewed or otherwise, that suggest paying people to do nothing and creating laws that make them unemployable is better than allowing people to be paid to do something I'd be willing to read it.

I'm not even saying I'm for it, it's just UBI is going to happen if we keep this automation pace up.

I'm not saying you're for it, or that it is impossible. History is wrought with politically achieved and economically disastrous policies. I've had the chance to see some firsthand.
But in the end it won't be a consequence of automation, but political interference and widespread economic ignorance.

 

[seminole97]

The key is "can adapt to it"

The majority of the population will never be smart enough to program computers or solve complex problems. The average IQ is 100. What will these people do? Maybe be gardeners......Retraining a laid off assembly line worker to be a programmer is often a joke. They won't ever have the ability.

Entrepreneurs will be guided by public demand in finding how best to employ labor in the future. We're not capable of imagining all the possibilities, and don't have to so long as we let supply and demand guide production and the allocation of labor.

Elon Musk has commented on the same.

Elon Musk favors goverment subsidies?!? The hell you say!

 

[ohio#1nolefan]

The economy has been changing since cavemen were trading seashells for animal hides. Always has, always will be. We survived the transitions from agrarian, to industrial, to service based, to whatever this will be - "the information economy"? Bottom line is still adapt or perish.

You mean when there were a handful of people in an uncivilized world? Anyways, it was still humans replacing humans. If robots take over the work force and everything becomes computerized and automated, there will be a generation of workers (say 40-60 yr. old) that it will difficult to find work based upon their lack of knowledge with the technology.
Not saying all automation is the devil but we don't need automation for every little thing.

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

If UBI is just an add on to current entitlements, no way. But if it replaces most of the safety net it has real appeal and could probably significantly reduce administrative costs.

 

[GwinnettNole]

The key is "can adapt to it"

The majority of the population will never be smart enough to program computers or solve complex problems. The average IQ is 100. What will these people do? Maybe be gardeners......Retraining a laid off assembly line worker to be a programmer is often a joke. They won't ever have the ability.

There's all kinds of things that can be automated and with growing Artificial Intelligence there may be less need for most human labor.

Elon Musk has commented on the same. http://fortune.com/2016/11/06/elon-musk-universal-basic-income/

I agree most people laid off today would not be able to write code. However, if programming begins at a young age and becomes enforced in schooling like math or English is today the probability of there being more people adequate in writing code and working in it as a profession is more likely than it is now.

The Asian cultures stress the STEM fields in schooling, we do not. If parents become wise to the situation then they make "Robotics" as a suitable hobby as "Cheerleading" or "T-ball" is today...

 

[Gonolz]

A cinder block could take my place and probably do a better job.

Let me guess, you help hold up junk cars in redneck yards for a living, don't you?

 

[SoddyNole]

Let me guess, you help hold up junk cars in redneck yards for a living, don't you?

you been spyin on meh boy!

 

[ReliableOstrich]

there will be a generation of workers (say 40-60 yr. old) that it will difficult to find work based upon their lack of knowledge

isnt that their fault?
Why should we slow down technological progress because a bunch of folks were too complacent to know you have to keep learning your whole life.
Their lack of intellectual curiosity and survival instinct slows us all down?
Nah that's on them. I'm happy to have the government create or fund training programs to get these folks new skillsets, be it gardeners or iOS app developers, but sure as hell not in favor of slowing down automation to protect their feelings as the world passes them by.

No where is it written that a manufacturing job from 1993 is protected forever and not subject to change. They were naive for thinking it was.

 

[YogiNole]

Last couple of software projects I've worked on has been largely focused on using mobile and cloud solutions to reduce the office people who do monotonous tasks. If you're in these professions, be very scared - it's adapt or die time.

 

[YogiNole]

The thing about using computers is ability to scale. When these automations happen, expect people to lose jobs on an unprecedented large scale - think tens of millions of lost jobs - truckers, office drones, delivery people, customer support - in a year or two. As a society we owe it ourselves to address this problem

 

[seminole97]

As a society we owe it ourselves to address this problem

Most important thing 'society' will be able to do to assist is allow people to trade. We won't be able to guess what jobs will come next, but if people are free to discover we will find them through the normal process of supply and demand.

 

[YogiNole]

Whether you like it or not, with the way automation is going, UBI has a better shot of happening than not.

UBI - the version popular with intelligentsia right now - is a weak copout IMO. When humans replaced the horse buggy with the motor car and switched to industrialized production, they didn't switch to UBI then

 

[YogiNole]

Most important thing 'society' will be able to do to assist is allow people to trade. We won't be able to guess what jobs will come next, but if people are free to discover we will find them through the normal process of supply and demand.

Not sure where I said we should not be allowed to trade. Yes, they will adapt over time but that transition period where millions of people suddenly lose their jobs and, with it, purpose in life, scares the heck out of me.

 

[seminole97]

Not sure where I said we should not be allowed to trade.

Not sure where I said you said that, but right now the biggest impediments to job formation are external costs applied by law, and laws that bar trade at exchanges third parties to the trade do not want to allow.
I don't pin these facts on you.

 

[ohio#1nolefan]

Just look at Mickey Ds. They're trying to automate the ordering process and the cooking. Pretty soon there may be just one sad 35 yo manager unable to bang his 16 yo employees sitting by and watching the machines process everyone's Big Mac order.

The threat of ridiculous min. wage increases was more of a driving factor more than anything.

 

[gcnole]

The threat of ridiculous min. wage increases was more of a driving factor more than anything.

I am not sure on how much the threat of the min wage going up had anything to do with McDonalds decisions. When I was in Europe the McDonalds had that system before I saw it here in the states. I am not sure how long Europe has had them but def before we did. Scan your own grocery’s has been around a lot longer than the 15 dollar an hour strike BS. Companies are always going to look at ways to increase efficiency and lower labor cost, regardless of min wage.