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Covid spike in Tally

For anyone wishing to see the numbers summarized by week and the changes I put them below.

The change from week 1 to week 2 is concerning if you are worried about the disease spreading (1.6% to 21.1% positive rate). If you are not concerned about spreading it then you should be happy because more people have it and we are closer to herd immunity.

I simply hope our players are taking virtual classes and are being smart so they don't get the virus so they don't have to sit out.

WeekPositive CasesNew Positive CasesTotal Tests PerformedWeekly Tests PerformedPositive RateWeekly Positive Rate
Before 8/24/202000N/AN/AN/AN/A
8/28/20201291298,2248,2241.57%1.57%
9/4/202085372411,6533,4297.32%21.11%
 
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That is not an accurate recapitulation of what the CDC said.
Actually it is factually true. The overwhelming majority of fatalities were from people who had an average of 2.6 preexisting conditions. We still do not actually know how many of the 89.4% of the deaths were actually deaths due to covid, or deaths from from something else while testing positve and possible being completely asymptomatic from covid. However, we do know for a fact that people died of cancer, gunshots, traffic accidents, as well as flu and pnuemonia that are included in the fatality stats.


 
Actually it is factually true. The overwhelming majority of fatalities were from people who had an average of 2.6 preexisting conditions. We still do not actually know how many of the 89.4% of the deaths were actually deaths due to covid, or deaths from from something else while testing positve and possible being completely asymptomatic from covid. However, we do know for a fact that people died of cancer, gunshots, traffic accidents, as well as flu and pnuemonia that are included in the fatality stats.



you need to learn to read. Because every bit of your post is wrong.
 
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you need to learn to read. Because every bit of your post is wrong.
So you disagree with the facts posted by the cdc...

FACT- Traffic accident fatality counted as covid death


FACT - People dying of other causes being counted as covid fatalities

n April, the state’s Director of Public Health Dr. Ngozi Ezike told a coronavirus news briefing that the state’s COVID-19 death toll was counting those who died of “a clear alternate cause” but had the virus at the same time.

FACT - Flu and pnumonia being included in covid fatality rate

Refer to the CDC chart showing fatality rates including pnuemonia and flu....


Maybe someone else needs to read at a higher level.
 
Actually it is factually true. The overwhelming majority of fatalities were from people who had an average of 2.6 preexisting conditions. We still do not actually know how many of the 89.4% of the deaths were actually deaths due to covid, or deaths from from something else while testing positve and possible being completely asymptomatic from covid. However, we do know for a fact that people died of cancer, gunshots, traffic accidents, as well as flu and pnuemonia that are included in the fatality stats.


The insinuation of the poster I was quoting is pretty clear (made clear by the second paragraph in which he declares covid to be no worse than the flu, which is, while somewhat of a subjective claim, nonetheless wrong.) Just look at the wording of the link you provided.

People are essentially trying to claim that only six percent of the covid deaths are actually “real” because of comorbidities. But the people who have health conditions who then get coronavirus and die are still dead. The reason, in the vast majority of cases, is that their immune systems are weakened by their conditions, and then covid comes through and they are unable to fight it off. Which is a problem because we have a lot of people in this country with health conditions. It doesn’t stand to reason that a gunshot victim whose blood tested positive for covid would be counted as Covid fatality. Doctors can figure out the cause of someone’s death. Anecdotal incidences of this are assuredly just that, and not indicative of a massive trend.
 
That is not an accurate recapitulation of what the CDC said.
i'll agree with that. the first sentence was basically correct and the rest was covered with opinion or misinterpretation of the data and cdc statement.

there are things we can point fingers at but about 200,000 excess deaths from all causes have occurred. in any normal flu season it is expected that there will be about 30k deaths, those are part of the 5-year trend lines that are measured weekly.
 
The insinuation of the poster I was quoting is pretty clear (made clear by the second paragraph in which he declares covid to be no worse than the flu, which is, while somewhat of a subjective claim, nonetheless wrong.) Just look at the wording of the link you provided.

People are essentially trying to claim that only six percent of the covid deaths are actually “real” because of comorbidities. But the people who have health conditions who then get coronavirus and die are still dead. The reason, in the vast majority of cases, is that their immune systems are weakened by their conditions, and then covid comes through and they are unable to fight it off. It doesn’t stand to reason that a gunshot victim whose blood tested positive for covid would be counted as Covid fatality. Doctors can figure out the cause of someone’s death. Anecdotal incidences of this are assuredly just that, and not indicative of a massive trend.
That is not the claim at all. It's a fact! The claim by alarmists such as yourself is that everyone who who is listed as a fatality died of covid. AND THAT JUST SIMPLY IS FALSE! I don't know how more factual evidence you need to comprehend that. A kid was shot in the head in New Orleans and was listed on the state reporting as covid positive and added to fatalities. My boss' father died of stage 4 cancer, and was listed as a covid fatality. The fact is a doctor or heathcare official can put more than one cause of death on a death certificate. (click the link below) THE FACT IS THAT ALL FATALITIES LISTED BY THE CDC DID NOT DIE OF COVID. PERIOD! POINT BLANK! We can debate what that actual number may be, but the fact that people who died of other causes and were added to ther covid fatality rate is an unwavering fact.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/blue_form.pdf
 
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i'll agree with that. the first sentence was basically correct and the rest was covered with opinion or misinterpretation of the data and cdc statement.

there are things we can point fingers at but about 200,000 excess deaths from all causes have occurred. in any normal flu season it is expected that there will be about 30k deaths, those are part of the 5-year trend lines that are measured weekly.
I'm not saying that peole did not die from covid. I am merely stating that the actual number of fatlaities is being overstated.
 
The insinuation of the poster I was quoting is pretty clear (made clear by the second paragraph in which he declares covid to be no worse than the flu, which is, while somewhat of a subjective claim, nonetheless wrong.) Just look at the wording of the link you provided.

People are essentially trying to claim that only six percent of the covid deaths are actually “real” because of comorbidities. But the people who have health conditions who then get coronavirus and die are still dead. The reason, in the vast majority of cases, is that their immune systems are weakened by their conditions, and then covid comes through and they are unable to fight it off. Which is a problem because we have a lot of people in this country with health conditions. It doesn’t stand to reason that a gunshot victim whose blood tested positive for covid would be counted as Covid fatality. Doctors can figure out the cause of someone’s death. Anecdotal incidences of this are assuredly just that, and not indicative of a massive trend.
agreed. why my own opinion differs is if the death due directly or indirectly to COVID being present? or was it because of insufficient care with no COVID present at all?

the cdc does acknowledge that a certain number of people are included in the COVID death totals who passed due to insufficient care but did not have COVID. given that many states still report probable cases and the recent reports on faulty testing, that insufficient care number might be much higher than thought.
 
agreed. why my own opinion differs is if the death due directly or indirectly to COVID being present? or was it because of insufficient care with no COVID present at all?

the cdc does acknowledge that a certain number of people are included in the COVID death totals who passed due to insufficient care but did not have COVID. given that many states still report probable cases and the recent reports on faulty testing, that insufficient care number might be much higher than thought.
Well, you kinda made my whole point. It's factual that people who have died of other causes and have been included in fatality stats. I also am sure that some people have been fatalites that have not been reported. Just as many millions have been exposed to it and are either asymptamatic or had mild cases. Data is only as good as the method used to collect it. And that method has been sketchy at most. I think you take out the 50K - 60K who die a year from flu and pnuemonia, the unknown number who may have died from other causes such as cancer etc, then add those who may have not been able to get medical attention. Who knows what that actual number is. And as far as the fatality rate, I think that the actual number of positive cases may be as much 40% higher than being reported.
 
I'm not saying that peole did not die from covid. I am merely stating that the actual number of fatalities is being overstated.
I know personally of cases where people have died of an unrelated disease only to be coded as covid deaths when the virus was only discovered postmortem. It adds insult to injury for the surviving families and creates an increasing distrust as these occurrences continue to surface.
That being said I have heard of healthy people that have been taken by covid. It is tragic. It is a serious virus. However it would be more reassuring if we could trust what is being reported.
 
Well, you kinda made my whole point. It's factual that people who have died of other causes and have been included in fatality stats. I also am sure that some people have been fatalites that have not been reported. Just as many millions have been exposed to it and are either asymptamatic or had mild cases. Data is only as good as the method used to collect it. And that method has been sketchy at most. I think you take out the 50K - 60K who die a year from flu and pnuemonia, the unknown number who may have died from other causes such as cancer etc, then add those who may have not been able to get medical attention. Who knows what that actual number is. And as far as the fatality rate, I think that the actual number of positive cases may be as much 40% higher than being reported.
I think I can meet you half way here. A novel pandemic virus exploits our lack of preparedness and that creates a sort of chaos that leads to difficulties creating consistent criteria, definitions, testing, etc. So, is it possible covid deaths are over represented in the data? I suppose it is, given the utter crapshow that the national response has been. The lack of consistent testing, however, means that cases and deaths could actually be (and, in my opinion, are likely) underreported.

A metric I think is helpful to grasp the mortality burden of the pandemic is total deaths above expectation. And this website provides a graph that shows that it is well above expectation. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
 
I know personally of cases where people have died of an unrelated disease only to be coded as covid deaths when the virus was only discovered postmortem. It adds insult to injury for the surviving families and creates an increasing distrust as these occurrences continue to surface.
That being said I have heard of healthy people that have been taken by covid. It is tragic. It is a serious virus. However it would be more reassuring if we could trust what is being reported.
I too have experienced that. I certainly am not saying that people are not dying from covid. I just feel the actual number and rate is much lower than being reported.
 
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Well, you kinda made my whole point. It's factual that people who have died of other causes and have been included in fatality stats. I also am sure that some people have been fatalites that have not been reported. Just as many millions have been exposed to it and are either asymptamatic or had mild cases. Data is only as good as the method used to collect it. And that method has been sketchy at most. I think you take out the 50K - 60K who die a year from flu and pnuemonia, the unknown number who may have died from other causes such as cancer etc, then add those who may have not been able to get medical attention. Who knows what that actual number is. And as far as the fatality rate, I think that the actual number of positive cases may be as much 40% higher than being reported.
you can't really take out something that's already built into the 5-year average anyway. flu deaths, for example, the vast majority occur between december and february, pre-COVID. the CDC tracks epidemics and pandemics by excess deaths, the last time we had a spike in excess deaths was during the 2018 flu season.

there have been 200,000+ excess deaths by all causes since March and quite frankly there are only two distinct reasons for that. COVID or insufficient care. i will concur that i think COVID deaths due directly or indirectly to the virus are overstated. Dr. Birx has even said before that it may be overstated by 25%, my opinion is that it is higher than that - maybe one-third or more due to insufficient care.

you can see the excess deaths with and without COVID on the dashboard linked below. given the faulty PCR testing and probable cases included in the count, plus the age demographic of the majority affected, it is my belief that insufficient care is a much larger contributor than acknowledged.

 
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you can't really take out something that's already built into the 5-year average anyway. flu deaths, for example, the vast majority occur between december and february, pre-COVID. the CDC tracks epidemics and pandemics by excess deaths, the last time we had a spike in excess deaths was during the 2018 flu season.

there have been 200,000+ excess deaths by all causes since March and quite frankly there are only two distinct reasons for that. COVID or insufficient care. i will concur that i think COVID deaths due directly or indirectly to the virus are overstated. Dr. Birx has even said before that it may be overstated by 25%, my opinion is that it is higher than that - maybe one-third or more due to insufficient care.

you can see the excess deaths with and without COVID on the dashboard linked below. given the faulty PCR testing and probable cases included in the count, plus the age demographic of the majority affected, it is my belief that insufficient care is a much larger contributor than acknowledged.

Would substance abuse, suicide etc be included in the insufficient care category?
 
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I too have experienced that. I certainly am not saying that people are not dying from covid. I just feel the actual number and rate is much lower than being reported.
and we know probably millions more have been infected so the death rate is much much lower
 
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you can't really take out something that's already built into the 5-year average anyway. flu deaths, for example, the vast majority occur between december and february, pre-COVID. the CDC tracks epidemics and pandemics by excess deaths, the last time we had a spike in excess deaths was during the 2018 flu season.

there have been 200,000+ excess deaths by all causes since March and quite frankly there are only two distinct reasons for that. COVID or insufficient care. i will concur that i think COVID deaths due directly or indirectly to the virus are overstated. Dr. Birx has even said before that it may be overstated by 25%, my opinion is that it is higher than that - maybe one-third or more due to insufficient care.

you can see the excess deaths with and without COVID on the dashboard linked below. given the faulty PCR testing and probable cases included in the count, plus the age demographic of the majority affected, it is my belief that insufficient care is a much larger contributor than acknowledged.

Let's just hope that the cdc is better at collecting flu and pnumonia data than they are covid...
 
The lack of consistent testing, however, means that cases and deaths could actually be (and, in my opinion, are likely) underreported.
cases AND deaths underreported? the CDC is essentially already stating that approximately 90% of all excess deaths are because of COVID. how much more reporting do you want?

your contention also flys in the face of the fault in the PCR testing. if what was found is correct and up to 90% of cases have been misdiagnosed then that lays reason that a significant number of reported deaths are also misdiagnosed.

what we need to ask is if the massive spike seen in the first 7 weeks of COVID deaths was due to people being turned away from necessary, non-COVID care? it's taken nearly twice as much time with twice as many reported positives in the 13-weeks since to see essentially the same number of deaths as occurred in those first 7 weeks.
 
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Let's just hope that the cdc is better at collecting flu and pnumonia data than they are covid...
the CDC data for that is built on a dynamic model based on results they receive from certain labs and extrapolated out for nationwide effect. it's why you always see a high / low number for flu-related illness and death.

as you have previously mentioned though, the CDC is currently leveraging it's fluview system to track COVID so no matter what we will hear about COVID deaths probably until at least March when the current/upcoming flu season begins to subside. the only true measure we will have is if deaths are within the normal 5-year trend lines or excess to those. we need to get the excess under control.
 
cases AND deaths underreported? the CDC is essentially already stating that approximately 90% of all excess deaths are because of COVID. how much more reporting do you want?

your contention also flys in the face of the fault in the PCR testing. if what was found is correct and up to 90% of cases have been misdiagnosed then that lays reason that a significant number of reported deaths are also misdiagnosed.

what we need to ask is if the massive spike seen in the first 7 weeks of COVID deaths was due to people being turned away from necessary, non-COVID care? it's taken nearly twice as much time with twice as many reported positives in the 13-weeks since to see essentially the same number of deaths as occurred in those first 7 weeks.
So, if you’re saying the CDC is correct that 90% of excess deaths are covid-caused, and per their website they say 190,912 - 253,841 excess deaths since Feb 1, then that would mean 171,821-228,457 covid deaths.
 
Not sure why they are trying to freak people out other than selling airtime. But even with that "spike" which doesn't have any hospitalizations, you are looking at .02 positivity rate. If they were testing for the flu it would be higher.

...and herpes.
 
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So, if you’re saying the CDC is correct that 90% of excess deaths are covid-caused, and per their website they say 190,912 - 253,841 excess deaths since Feb 1, then that would mean 171,821-228,457 covid deaths.
First of all you will NEVER hear me say the cdc is correct. They have flip flopped and changed their position too many times just on covid to take what they say as the gospel. No, I'm saying EXACTLY the opposite of that..... Look at the titles of the columns. Excess death includes ALL causes. Suicide, drug overdoeses, falling out of a tree, drowning in a bath tub, etc... We already know that suicide, drug overdoses, homocides, and other catagories are way up. Or are you saying that 90% of all excess deaths are covid related?

.
 
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First of all you will NEVER hear me say the cdc is correct. They have flip flopped and changed their position too many times just on covid to take what they say as the gospel. No, I'm saying EXACTLY the opposite of that..... Look at the titles of the columns. Excess death includes ALL causes. Suicide, drug overdoeses, falling out of a tree, drowning in a bath tub, etc... We already know that suicide, drug overdoses, homocides, and other catagories are way up. Or are you saying that 90% of all excess deaths are covid related?

.
I mean, I was specifically replying to GBR who made that claim. So I was replying to what he said, not what you said. It stands to reason, though, that most of the increase in expected deaths during a deadly pandemic would be related to the deadly pandemic. The 90% number did not come from me, but if it’s what the CDC is saying, I have no reason to doubt it.
 
So, if you’re saying the CDC is correct that 90% of excess deaths are covid-caused, and per their website they say 190,912 - 253,841 excess deaths since Feb 1, then that would mean 171,821-228,457 covid deaths.
No, i would challenge that 90% have been caused by the virus. I do believe that the virus itself is responsible for a high number but probably somewhere between 60-70% of the excess deaths? purely my opinion but with reason.

The UK recently had to reduce their virus related death total by 12% and is being further investigated due to faulty PCR test results.
 
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I mean, I was specifically replying to GBR who made that claim. So I was replying to what he said, not what you said. It stands to reason, though, that most of the increase in expected deaths during a deadly pandemic would be related to the deadly pandemic. The 90% number did not come from me, but if it’s what the CDC is saying, I have no reason to doubt it.
Just like you would have no doubt to listen to the cdc about masks, or any other opinions they have flip flopped on?
 
Like with almost all ailments, young people’s immune systems are pretty resilient in fighting covid. The problem is that college students don’t only interact with other college students. The come into contact with professors, lunch ladies, janitors, administrators, etc. who are far more likely to be hospitalized. So the point is to try to lessen the spread to those people.
OK.. how many college professors, and "lunch ladies" do you think are in hospitals or the ICU??? You know the answer.. This will go down as the most idiotic over reaction in human history.
 
6% covid deaths died with only COVID... all others averaged 2.5 co-morbidities.... Hmmm. imagine that. almost like we totally fvked up shutting the economy down and ruining family businesses..
 
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OK.. how many college professors, and "lunch ladies" do you think are in hospitals or the ICU??? You know the answer.. This will go down as the most idiotic over reaction in human history.
I think he meant infected student’s interaction with those on campus such as professors and support staff could put those older people in danger. Not sure I agree.
I would say, wear your mask and wash your hands. No different than hospital, big box and hospitality workers. Follow the science.
 
I think he meant infected student’s interaction with those on campus such as professors and support staff could put those older people in danger. Not sure I agree.
I would say, wear your mask and wash your hands. No different than hospital, big box and hospitality workers. Follow the science.
don't you know the grocery store and home depot are much safer than a classroom or tailgate?
 
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As long as everyone is masked up and taking precautions, I see no difference.
I just read a release from FSU on another site that noted the 11,000+ tests yielded 800+ cases for a 7.2% positive rate. Further, such a rate would not warrant moving to on-line classes only. And other precautions were being implemented such as only residents in Fraternity and Sorority Houses and some others that I can't remember (I'm 81 and can't remember what I had for breakfast).
 
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