Hurricane Irma
- Thread starter Fijimn
- Start date
If the eye stays over water then the storm stays strong and causes more damage. Storm would be stronger when it hits the panhandle.
GFS continuing the westward trend. Pucker up gulf peeps.
891mb while over the keys? There's zero chance those survive that at all.
According to this, the winds would not be that horrendous in Tally.More west now on the HMON model. Westward seems to be the trend
Smh at all the people complaining about the game being cancelled. Tally looks like it could take a direct hit.
Dont use the hmon though. Shouldnt have posted it, was just a reference for the western track. GFS and euro are the main ones. Come out at 1130 and 2, am and pm.
So long As the eye does not stay over water then Tally would not be too bad. If things shift west keeping that eye over water then all bets are off.
Yeah, European and GFS showing this as well. Cuba blocking steering currents from the south somewhat? If it holds not good for pretty much the whole state as it will be on the east side. Getting ready to take off from Tallahassee shortly. Thanks to all you paranoid parents for putting your college kids on this plane at the last second, I got a rare 1st class upgrade on a miles flight, hurricane party!GFS continuing the westward trend. Pucker up gulf peeps.
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Both the GFS and Euro models have it now as a tropical storm instead of a Cat 1 when it's near the FL/GA line.
That's my concern. Does the shift west continue?
So, if that was a person holding a camera to get that footage, I am curious to know how they didn't drown. It was too dark for me to make out a lot of what was in the room, but I certainly saw the waves burst into through the doors.
The Euro model has it coming in near Naples but it looks to me like it's closer to Jax than to Tally when it gets north. I'll take that. Sorry @goldmom .
I have a place in Mexico Beach. Trying to decide whether to pull my boat out and put it on dry ground. I felt pretty good about leaving it in my slip until the last 12 hours. Looks like it could get rougher than I was expecting, over there
Check out NOAA's 11pm written forecast...they are basically saying they don't know what it's going to do.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/090259.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/090259.shtml
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It'd be nice if this thing keeps heading out to the gulf but if that happens I'm afraid they'll never get anyone to evacuate ever again.
I am more afraid it will march over warm waters into St. Marks as a CAT 4/5 and destroy Tallahassee as the path keeps going west.
Slight shift to the east from the gfs at 1130. Back to a cat5, eyewall reorganized.
Lol you've been cracking me up. I'm in Jacksonville as well, and I've chosen to stay and ride it out. We'll be fine.
What kind of boat? Personally, I would take it out if that is doable. I think the panhandle is going to get more than originally projected.
Work in collier and live in Ft Myers. Worse case scenario for us. This has been draining to say the least.
Praying for you guys. You have had more than your share of these %#*^ things. Sucks for everyone and you in particular
This personal worst case scenario is looking a little too likely for my liking.
If she gets in the gulf -- where the water is shallow and super-warm -- look out.
A lot of people in the keys wont' evacuate. News came on and said "No one will survive if they don't" Eye to pass over Key West. Been in SW FL since 77 two direct hits for me and 40 years of misses
Am I officially safer in New Smyrna Beach than Deland? I'm 5 miles inland (in NSB) so not too worried about storm surge if it holds off to the west...
And over the past two days, the projected eye path has shifted about 140 miles and switched coasts. Still hasn't taken the north turn.
Those will surely pick back up once it gets off the coast of Cuba. I think that since it's partially over land right now, that that is the reason for the weakening.
Models still seem to have it moving just inland up the west coast but, margin for error on the tracks are very slim and it could definitely slide up the coast in the gulf. That's actually worse for everyone except the Far East coast maybe.
Couple things to be hopeful about -- the interaction with Cuba has really disrupted it and it's got some more hours before re-emerging over water. Many times these things never recover after being disrupted that much.
If it stays off the west coast and moves toward the panhandle, there is some strong shear in the northern gulf that could cause it to weaken.
If it stays off the west coast and moves toward the panhandle, there is some strong shear in the northern gulf that could cause it to weaken.
Yes. But it all depends on your power grid in how comfortable you will be after.
People freak out before hand, but the true test is after. The roads back home will be a bitch. Everyone that evaced are already at wits end, multiplied with them wanting to asses damage to their homes after being stressed on their way out, hwys clogged, food, gas at the exits out or closed. Sheeet.
Looks like east coast may be spared but you never know with these things
They tend to make forecasters look stupid!
Anyways I cannot cross off the " go thru cat 5 with goldmom", yet
So there's still a chance for that
They tend to make forecasters look stupid!
Anyways I cannot cross off the " go thru cat 5 with goldmom", yet
So there's still a chance for that
Key West High is being used as a shelter and it's packed. I can't believe so many stayed on the island. Sigh....island people are unique.
