Hurricane Irma
- Thread starter Fijimn
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It looks like a lot of us in the Tampa Bay area will be with our power for a while. I've always been of the opinion that the power companies restore power to the more affluent neighborhoods first. For example, which area do you think will get power back first, Palma Ceia or Lutz? Power companies are no more than propaganda machines.
http://www.tampabay.com/news/weathe...without-power-in-tampa-bay-after-irma/2337043
http://www.tampabay.com/news/weathe...without-power-in-tampa-bay-after-irma/2337043
Big time flooding downtown but my neighborhood on the NE side of town amazingly lost power for only 5 minutes. Record storm surge caused flooding all along the river downtown and in nearby neighborhoods. Lots of tree limbs and yard trash as you would expect with the high winds
Or....closer to the hospitals, which Palma Ceia is to a few in the area vs Lutz...
76,000 without power in SJC, today wasn't too bad, but warms up tomorrow so everyone's fingers are crossed. My neighbor is a sheriff deputy for SJC and he said Vilano beach was rocked. A lot worse down here than Matthew. 1 death in Ponte Vedra area.
Downtown Jax got worked with flooding, got texted today not to go to office tomorrow.
We're on day 2 without power. North of 210 is JEA and they're all restored. Those of us south of 210 are FP&L and anxiously awaiting power restoration.
Minimal damage in my neighborhood but the ponds flooded. The underpass at 95 and 210 is flooded on one side
Minimal damage in my neighborhood but the ponds flooded. The underpass at 95 and 210 is flooded on one side
You get it, thanks for the kind words. Back on the trails again, family doctor said that conventional opinion about runners knee treatment is being challenged, that movement is actually good for healing and repair. He told me to start back up, cut back in duration and vertical for the time being, so far so good.
I'm in a small town west of Hogtown. We had the worst around 2:00 - 3:00 AM Monday. I haven't seen anything official but we were supposed to get winds in the 70's. It sounded pretty nasty but no damage to my place. Just some limbs around the yard. We never even lost power.
It's a beautiful morning and the garbage trucks are running in my neighborhood, sounds of "normal"!
It's just disheartening to see the damage on TV and to think 50% of us are without power. What a frustrating thing. I hope everyone has a good day - as best as you can.
It's just disheartening to see the damage on TV and to think 50% of us are without power. What a frustrating thing. I hope everyone has a good day - as best as you can.
So they are claiming a quarter of the houses were destroyed in the Keys.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/12/us/ir...medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/12/us/ir...medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark
Euro probably. The wild card was it getting stalled over Cuba then the cold front coming in, pushing it more east and infusing it with cold, dry air. I don't know why TWC and the rest of them don't infuse these fronts and the effects they have on the storms into their forecasts and broadcasts. @ChimpNole can you give us the scoop?
Oddly enough whatever little local guy they have on NBC in Panama City was dead on in his prognostication. When all of the Al Rokers of the world was saying Irma was going to completely wipe out Tampa, turn Sarasota into Waterworld etc and other doom and gloom, the local NBC guy was saying calm down people there's a front in the Gulf that's going to act like a forcefield pushing it east, stalling it out and ultimately tearing it apart. Fortunately he ended up being right.
I can't find the clip, but there was a random guy in Jax Beach who was interviewed and nailed it. The reporter didn't even know how to reply, you could tell he was thinking "abort abort abort".
Wish I could fine, it was all over FB this morning.
Wish I could fine, it was all over FB this morning.
That's exactly what happened. I'd watch him over Stephanie Abrams any day!
I thought it was Larry David. Lol rarely have those two ever been confused for each other.
This morning around 7 a.m. I got a text from WTSP with a listing of all the counties and the estimated restoration times for Duke customers. They have Pasco County with an estimated restoration time of 4 a.m. today. I called my mom at 12:30 and she said that there's still no power and that 59% of Pasco County is without power.
Either Duke is full of crap, which his highly likely, or WTSP engaged in alternative facts.
I still say Duke is taking care of the more affluent neighborhoods first.
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Of course they are, that is the way corporations in America work.
There is a reason inner city schools are under funded and poor neighborhoods tend to have worse high speed internet bandwidth.
The creation of self perpetuating bottlenecks is as American as apple pie. Sad but true.
I'm not sure about the US as a whole, but in FL the inner city schools actually receive more funding. No idea about the bandwidth though.
More funding doesn't guarantee better results and sometimes isn't sufficient to begin with. Topic for another thread though.
A $150 Billion Misfire: How Disaster Models Got Irma Wrong
By
Brian K Sullivan
September 11, 2017, 6:50 PM CDT September 12, 2017, 12:10 PM CDT
Twenty miles may have made a $150 billion difference.
Estimates for the damage Hurricane Irma would inflict on Florida kept mounting as it made its devastating sweep across the Caribbean. It was poised to be the costliest U.S. storm on record. Then something called the Bermuda High intervened and tripped it up.
“We got very lucky,” said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Michigan. If Irma had passed 20 miles west of Marco Island instead of striking it on Sunday, “the damage would have been astronomical.” A track like that would have placed the powerful, eastern eye wall of Irma on Florida’s Gulf Coast.
By one estimate, the total cost dropped to about $50 billion Monday from $200 billion over the weekend. The state escaped the worst because Irma’s powerful eye shifted away from the biggest population center of sprawling Miami-Dade County.
The credit goes to the Bermuda High, which acts like a sort of traffic cop for the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. The circular system hovering over Bermuda jostled Irma onto northern Cuba Saturday, where being over land sapped it of some power, and then around the tip of the Florida peninsula, cutting down on storm surge damage on both coasts of the state.
“The Bermuda High is finite and it has an edge, which was right over Key West,” Masters said. Irma caught the edge and turned north.
For 10 days, computer-forecast models had struggled with how the high was going to push Irma around and when it was going to stop, said Peter Sousounis, director of meteorology at AIR Worldwide. “I have never watched a forecast more carefully than Irma. I was very surprised not by how one model was going back and forth -- but by how all the models were going back and forth.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...fire-how-forecasters-got-irma-damage-so-wrong
By
Brian K Sullivan
September 11, 2017, 6:50 PM CDT September 12, 2017, 12:10 PM CDT
Twenty miles may have made a $150 billion difference.
Estimates for the damage Hurricane Irma would inflict on Florida kept mounting as it made its devastating sweep across the Caribbean. It was poised to be the costliest U.S. storm on record. Then something called the Bermuda High intervened and tripped it up.
“We got very lucky,” said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Michigan. If Irma had passed 20 miles west of Marco Island instead of striking it on Sunday, “the damage would have been astronomical.” A track like that would have placed the powerful, eastern eye wall of Irma on Florida’s Gulf Coast.
By one estimate, the total cost dropped to about $50 billion Monday from $200 billion over the weekend. The state escaped the worst because Irma’s powerful eye shifted away from the biggest population center of sprawling Miami-Dade County.
The credit goes to the Bermuda High, which acts like a sort of traffic cop for the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. The circular system hovering over Bermuda jostled Irma onto northern Cuba Saturday, where being over land sapped it of some power, and then around the tip of the Florida peninsula, cutting down on storm surge damage on both coasts of the state.
“The Bermuda High is finite and it has an edge, which was right over Key West,” Masters said. Irma caught the edge and turned north.
For 10 days, computer-forecast models had struggled with how the high was going to push Irma around and when it was going to stop, said Peter Sousounis, director of meteorology at AIR Worldwide. “I have never watched a forecast more carefully than Irma. I was very surprised not by how one model was going back and forth -- but by how all the models were going back and forth.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...fire-how-forecasters-got-irma-damage-so-wrong
I'm not there, and not involved, but what would Duke's incentive be to take care of more affluent neighborhoods first? Rich people pay the same rate/kw hr as everyone else. They have bigger house that might use a little more electricity, but it can't be that big of a difference. Plus, I'm assuming that like other power companies, Duke is a monopoly, so they can't be too concerned about the rich customers going somewhere else to get their electricity.
Rather, it seems like their incentive would be to get as many customers restored, as quickly as they can. So, they would be incented to a) target the easiest outages to fix - I'm assuming the ones where trees have fallen on lines, etc., and b) target the outages where one fix would restore the highest number of customers. They do this and they show the fastest path of getting their customers restored. They look their best, and they get more customers back to being paying customers as quickly as they can.
Or, maybe their repairs are taking longer to finish and is slowing their progress.
If that is accurate I am kind of surprised it wasn't more given the low land and ferocity of the storm.
In speaking with someone who has knowledge of how the power company prioritizes, according to him first responders get top priority, hospitals and special needs, areas with multi dwelling, down to essentially last on the list single dweller homes.
I live across the street from a Gulf Power executive. He says the same thing. After hospitals and nursing homes are major streets. They try and get the highest number of people first. They are very careful about demographics because they have been accused of discrimination in the past.
My neighbor did mention that more affluent people tend to have chainsaws, or can hire people with chainsaws, and crews can get to them quicker without having to clear debris. Also, affluent people tend to have more underground power instead of overhead, so they only need to have power restored at the street where the neighborhood begins for everyone in the neighborhood to have power.
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