Now Cat 4 Michael

[DFSNOLE]

Here's the deal -

Classically privately owned land area lost to erosion, as demarcated by mean high tide, reverts to public ownership. But that is not true in the case of lands lost by avulsion or sudden typically storm related erosion in which case private ownership is retained over the now, but probably not forever, underwater lands.

It seems to me that with climate change and sea level rise avulsion is the new erosion. As "private" beach or waterfront development gets washed away from either routine erosion or routine storm related erosion, the water area properly goes to the public.

In this context the converse should hold too; any lands added by accretion should be considered avulsional, less likely to naturally recur, and not automatically owned by the adjacent property.

Walton County would be perfect lead; it's not like local beach issues have not reached both the Florida and US Supreme Courts.

Let me know how it goes.

The issue as we see it is not the immediate reversion of the property to the public but the ability or inability to renourish these private beaches. If it's done using federal funds, the property reverts to the public. I would imagine county officials will not allow them to drive across public lands to get sand there without a total revolt by the citizens. So the question is, how do they do it? Going over the primary dune will require all kinds of permits. Will those owners just throw in the towel?

 

[LesClaypool]

Last two HRWF runs have this making CAT 4. This is scary situation with very little notice time and it intensifying much faster than predicted. Hopefully shear or dry air can keep it suppressed.

What site are you going to get your data? I’d like to go there to see it too.

 

[noleclone2]

What site are you going to get your data? I’d like to go there to see it too.

Get it from weather nerds in comments posting updates.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Tropical-Storm-Michael-Headed-Gulf-Mexico

 

[squiffynole]

Crazy dangerous. People must be scrambling at Cape San Blas, SGI, Alligator Point, Shell Point, Keaton and the like. Spring Creek folks will be trailering their boats to higher ground up behind the convenience store, Bo's in St. Marks is putting products on high shelves, ice will be like gold.

 

[noleclone2]

Crazy dangerous. People must be scrambling at Cape San Blas, SGI, Alligator Point, Shell Point, Keaton and the like. Spring Creek folks will be trailering their boats to higher ground up behind the convenience store, Bo's in St. Marks is putting products on high shelves, ice will be like gold.

Yeah. I am a bit of a weather dork myself regarding hurricanes and first I heard of this was yesterday morning. At that time when I checked in on it it was the potential TS to even Cat 1 possible storm Thursday making landfall in panhandle. Less than 24 hours it has shifted to possible Cat 3 making landfall as soon as Wednesday and worse it could be FWB/ Destin to PC....that is a lot of property to prep and evacuate with almost no time...

 

[noleclone2]

 

[NoleLizards]

 

[goldmom]

I was at Alligator Point and Shell Point Beach 3 weeks ago, glad I got to see it with all the recent "improvements" - and all the house built up high to withstand the storm surge.
Better get to gettin' boys.

 

[noleclone2]

 

[noleclone2]

 

[DFSNOLE]

Just found out that I'm on 12 hour shifts at our EOC. Yay.

 

[runkpanole]

Just found out that I'm on 12 hour shifts at our EOC. Yay.

State EOC activated to a Level I at 7 AM. I'm awaiting my orders. I am more of a support role when I go in. Stay safe and pack a lot of coffee.

 

[DFSNOLE]

State EOC activated to a Level I at 7 AM. I'm awaiting my orders. I am more of a support role when I go in. Stay safe and pack a lot of coffee.

Thanks. We went Level 2 at 9 AM. At least I drew the 6AM - 6PM shift. You be safe too.

 

[LesClaypool]

I've been at Defcon 4 for weeks!

 

[seminoledq]

Well, crap. I'm set to be at a music festival in Live Oak this weekend. Hope it blows through early.

Is that the one with Zac Brown?

 

[goldmom]

Blowing thru Wednesday night-Thursday morning

 

[TripTych]

 

[TripTych]

Cat 3 at landfall, from the normally conservative NOAA.

INIT 08/1500Z 21.2N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.6N 85.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 24.4N 85.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 26.4N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.6N 86.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 42.8N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

[RTM58]

 

[FlashFSU]

 

[noleclone2]

Cat 3 at landfall, from the normally conservative NOAA.

INIT 08/1500Z 21.2N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.6N 85.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 24.4N 85.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 26.4N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.6N 86.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 42.8N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Crazy if you look at same map from one day ago this time. Had it as TS until just off coast where it becomes Cat 1.

 

[OrlandNole]

OK, in true lockerroom spirit, here's a dumb question: I'm supposed to fly home to Nashville from Tampa on 9 PM Wednesday night, which would likely place my flight path over the storm. Do commercial airliners typically alter their flight path, fly over the storm or cancel the flight altogether?

 

[runkpanole]

That is quite the jog to the east.

 

[FlashFSU]

OK, in true lockerroom spirit, here's a dumb question: I'm supposed to fly home to Nashville from Tampa on 9 PM Wednesday night, which would likely place my flight path over the storm. Do commercial airliners typically alter their flight path, fly over the storm or cancel the flight altogether?

Usually around tho really I don't think there's much danger flying over it. The biggest risk is that if you have a problem, ain't nobody gonna be able to come out and save you.

 

[Dr. Nole]

My kid in a dorm at FSU...says people starting to get panicky.

 

[Fijimn]

My kid in a dorm at FSU...says people starting to get panicky.

I wonder if they still play mud football on the IM fields during hurricanes.

 

[OrlandNole]

FSU today:

My kid in a dorm at FSU...says people starting to get panicky.

FSU in the 90s:
...people starting to get kegs.

 

[Dr. Nole]

FSU today:


FSU in the 90s:
...people starting to get kegs.

I was there in '85 for Kate? Yeah, we handled things different back then....

 

[Dr. Nole]

FSU just cx classes starting tonight. through rest of week.

 

[NoleLizards]

It's now officially Hurricane Michael...already.

 

[SeaPA]

I was there in '85 for Kate? Yeah, we handled things different back then....

Me, too. I remember walking around campus with a group of buddies during the storm, and finding that a big oak had fallen across the fence to the pool. So naturally we all went swimming & jumping off the high tower. It seemed like a great idea at the time.

 

[Osceola1728]

It's now officially Hurricane Michael...already.

Hunker down, now they're saying it's going to be a category 3 at landfall.

 

[NoleLizards]

Hunker down, now they're saying it's going to be a category 3 at landfall.

We are (hunkering)...And I can assure those of you concerned about such things, plenty of the water stocked up will have hops & barley in it.

 

[seminoledq]

My kid in a dorm at FSU...says people starting to get panicky.

Yea that's what my kid just said too. He isn't too worried but said a lot of people are.

 

[seminoledq]

OK, in true lockerroom spirit, here's a dumb question: I'm supposed to fly home to Nashville from Tampa on 9 PM Wednesday night, which would likely place my flight path over the storm. Do commercial airliners typically alter their flight path, fly over the storm or cancel the flight altogether?

Should be able to maneuver around it. I am flying DEN-TPA Wednesday morning so hopefully I can get there without too much delay.

 

[LesClaypool]

FSU just cx classes starting tonight. through rest of week.

Link? If you have one...

 

[Dr. Nole]

Link? If you have one...

https://alerts.fsu.edu/

 

[squiffynole]

DF

Link? If you have one...

By: WCTV Eyewitness News
October 8, 2018

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Florida State University officials have announced closures ahead of Hurricane Michael, which is expected to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle mid-week.

The school issued the following alert on Monday morning:

FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY TO CLOSE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Based on the most recent forecast from the National Hurricane Center, Florida State University will close for the week effective 12:01 A.M. Tuesday, Oct. 9. On-campus housing and dining service operations will continue throughout the closure.

The university is expected to resume classes and normal business operations on Monday, Oct. 15.

Students are encouraged to discuss possible travel plans with family and friends. DO NOT travel into the path of the storm. Please continue to monitor the latest weather information from the National Weather Service or other official weather sources.

FSU is prepared to support students throughout the storm. All university departments are engaged and prepared to respond to student needs. On-campus residence halls and dining facilities will remain open for current residential students during the closure.

Students who chose to stay will be advised to follow a "shelter in place" protocol. That is, stay indoors, away from doors and windows during the storm. Meals will be delivered to the residence halls during the storm.

Employees should communicate with their supervisors regarding their expected participation in post-storm assignments and clean-up efforts.

Stay tuned to alerts.fsu.edu and the SeminoleSAFE mobile app for further updates as they develop.

 

[NoleLizards]

Damned hurricanes are vexing us this week!

 

[travnole]

I was there in '85 for Kate? Yeah, we handled things different back then....

We played the Opal Bowl during my FR year in 1995.