CoronaVirus article
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If our hospitals get overrun that mortality rate will change for the worse. It does not hit home when reports slip out of mass graves and mass cremations in China. It may not strike a chord when bodies are being carted from one Italian city to others because they can’t cremate them fast enough even running 24 hours a day. Wait (God forbid) until you see that type of situation in some American cities. I suspect your point of view will change.
Watch that video of the doctor in Chicago that was posted a few posts up. She states it so well when she says it’s hard to feel like a hero sitting on your couch but, it’s the action we need our citizens committed to if we don’t want these horrific situations here.
Watch that video of the doctor in Chicago that was posted a few posts up. She states it so well when she says it’s hard to feel like a hero sitting on your couch but, it’s the action we need our citizens committed to if we don’t want these horrific situations here.
YOU JUST HAD TO INFUSE YOUR POLITICAL CRAP INTO THIS SITUATION. OUR PRESIDENT AND STATES REACTED WHEN THEY HAD SUFFICIENT INFORMATION TO DO SO. BLAME CHINA FOR ANY DELAY IN HELPING.
I don’t know what your source is but this isn’t even in the ballpark of being accurate.
Ah ok. I guess I misread it as being 0.012%.
Still that’s not really an accurate number yet either.
It’s not just current cases/deaths.
Every time someone tests positive that doesn’t mean the death rate goes down, it just adds a pending case to the total which may or may not result in death.
So far there have been roughly 16,000 deaths out of 116,000 resolved cases (14%). Of course there are plenty of people who have gotten the virus with mild symptoms who haven’t been tested so the 14% is actually much less and will surely come down.
Regardless it’s gonna be a long time before we know the real mortality/death rate.
So, a key metric that one statistician is citing is DATE of infection. Those numbers are going down everywhere. Because the date of getting IDed as having the virus isn't when it set in. (my language sucks, sorry....)
And Tampa/Hillsborough County is NOT yet going to lock down the city/county. DeSantis also isn't locking down the state. And both have kept things open/flexible to change course if needed. At least that's how I interpreted his PC this afternoon.
And Tampa/Hillsborough County is NOT yet going to lock down the city/county. DeSantis also isn't locking down the state. And both have kept things open/flexible to change course if needed. At least that's how I interpreted his PC this afternoon.
That would be good news except
1. The Swine Flu numbers were always considered conservative due to areas not reporting or underreporting.
2. The number of deaths from COVID might not be accurate based on China and other fatalities that are not being correctly attributed to being COVID related.
3. the Swine Flu ran amok for over a year. I'm not sure on the distribution, but when you look at just the last 3 weeks, we have seen 17 of 19 days has shown an increase in deaths. We are now close to 2500 deaths a day. We need to hope this number is reduced soon or else it won't matter that the rate of death is sinking due to the number of mild cases, the deaths will be substantial.
If this is true then what are the real numbers?
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals
That's...not true.
Worldwide: 503,262 cases; 22,340 deaths; 4.44% crude death rate
US: 75,069 cases; 1,080 deaths; 1.44% crude death rate
And especially in the US there are competing forces pulling on both sides of that. As testing gets better, we'll find more cases, which means the rate is being pulled up by hidden cases. But as long as number of cases per day keeps increasing, the death toll will lag behind, which means the rate is being pulled down by a large number of recently infected (since it usually takes time to die from this). And of course there's the people who die without getting tested, which also pulls the rate down.
But in no way is it near 0.00211 of one percent. To put that number in perspective 0.00211% of 503,262 is only 10.6. That would mean 11 deaths in the entire world thus far.
Edited to add: Datasource is worldometers.info/coronavirus since you'll probably find slightly different numbers depending on where exactly you go for data.
Doesn't one have to be showing ALL symptoms to get tested? If so, how many asypmtematic folks out there are spreading it to the vulerable? What should we do about them?
A 2 year old and an infant caught it in Santa Rosa County this week in a day care. What is the solution? How should we handle this?
A 2 year old and an infant caught it in Santa Rosa County this week in a day care. What is the solution? How should we handle this?
On Thursday Dr. Fauci co-authored a report on the coronavirus in the New England Journal of Medicine.
In the report Dr. Fauci now argues that the mortality rate of the coronavirus may be much closer to a very bad flu.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
In the report Dr. Fauci now argues that the mortality rate of the coronavirus may be much closer to a very bad flu.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
He said of the 1099 lab tested Covid-19 patients that this is the case. He did not say, with authority, that this is the actual situation with which we are dealing. He was careful to put the word "may" in his statement: This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza.
He went on to say that we need more study of this virus.
As for this being just a really bad flu then by all means check out any hospitals videos from NY or LA. It's not just the flu. This is more because of population volume, ease of spread, and an ill prepared healthcare system.
He cherry picks and frames facts the way he wants, it’s not worth it to engage with him at this point
British "Expert" Who Predicted Millions Of Coronavirus Deaths Makes Stunning Reversal
1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the Imperial College authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID;
2/ He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.
3/ Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous.
4/ Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within “two to three weeks” - last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary.
5/ One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* - the UK only began ita lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work.
6/ Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US - I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.
This is important because the US is far ahead of the UK in terms of lockdown strategies. If the UK cases are now projected to "peak" in 2-3 weeks, we here in the states are not far behind
1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the Imperial College authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID;
2/ He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.
3/ Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous.
4/ Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within “two to three weeks” - last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary.
5/ One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* - the UK only began ita lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work.
6/ Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US - I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.
This is important because the US is far ahead of the UK in terms of lockdown strategies. If the UK cases are now projected to "peak" in 2-3 weeks, we here in the states are not far behind
Inflated Death Rates and “Wildly Wrong” Coronavirus Stats Cause Panic and Lockdowns
https://100percentfedup.com/inaccur...e-panic-in-local-officials-pushing-lockdowns/
https://100percentfedup.com/inaccur...e-panic-in-local-officials-pushing-lockdowns/
The mortality rate is a purely arithmetic equation of total deaths divided by total members of the selected population area that tested positive. And according to the worldwide website that everyone is using, the world is at 4.5% and the U.S. is at 1.5%. A "regular" flu is close to .1-.3%. But as doctors are now pointing out, because of the limitation of test kits where access was at first limited to those who had symptoms, the actual number of affected is probably higher, but the actual number of deaths (outside of China) is fairly accurate. So the mortality rate is expected to drop as more seemingly healthier people take the test.
The attacks on Federal and State leaders is a bit confusing. Trump closed the door to China in late January, New York City officials attacked him for doing that. Mardi Gras went on as planned. Trump locked the entry to more countries thirteen days later. Dems attacked him again. I am no Trump fan...his decision to close the borders was spot on correct....but his initial tone of voice was problematic. He has changed.
However, the real political issue and misstep to me was the constant fear mongering that we are all equally likely to get the virus was flat out wrong. And it led to...and still leads to... bad decisions. We did not spend enough time being draconian enough where the risk was the greatest. We spread it around like peanut butter. Seattle and New Rochelle and Wuhan and Lombardy Italy all should have let us know that the real issue is density of population....and the amount of density skews the risk. Local media are blasting De Santis for not shutting in residents of Florida counties that have zero or low numbers - it's a diversion as most large cities are run by Democrats. Good grief - Disney World announced it was shutting all its parks before NYC finally decided to shut its schools. DeBlasio's insistence to keep the schools open gave public credence to the view that the virus wasn't serious. And De Blasio worked out at the gym the day after he announced the closing. Now he wants the military to intervene because he wants to shift the blame, i.e., more New Yorkers will die only because the military is not there.
In dense populations, once the virus starts making its move it can't be stopped from spreading by just locking people in. Affected people who don't need constant medical care need to be moved to offsite locations. This is what Wuhan did. There are lots of Marriott properties and dorm rooms that are empty.
NYC is the perfect Petri dish for a virus that spreads quickly among people in close quarters.
The attacks on Federal and State leaders is a bit confusing. Trump closed the door to China in late January, New York City officials attacked him for doing that. Mardi Gras went on as planned. Trump locked the entry to more countries thirteen days later. Dems attacked him again. I am no Trump fan...his decision to close the borders was spot on correct....but his initial tone of voice was problematic. He has changed.
However, the real political issue and misstep to me was the constant fear mongering that we are all equally likely to get the virus was flat out wrong. And it led to...and still leads to... bad decisions. We did not spend enough time being draconian enough where the risk was the greatest. We spread it around like peanut butter. Seattle and New Rochelle and Wuhan and Lombardy Italy all should have let us know that the real issue is density of population....and the amount of density skews the risk. Local media are blasting De Santis for not shutting in residents of Florida counties that have zero or low numbers - it's a diversion as most large cities are run by Democrats. Good grief - Disney World announced it was shutting all its parks before NYC finally decided to shut its schools. DeBlasio's insistence to keep the schools open gave public credence to the view that the virus wasn't serious. And De Blasio worked out at the gym the day after he announced the closing. Now he wants the military to intervene because he wants to shift the blame, i.e., more New Yorkers will die only because the military is not there.
In dense populations, once the virus starts making its move it can't be stopped from spreading by just locking people in. Affected people who don't need constant medical care need to be moved to offsite locations. This is what Wuhan did. There are lots of Marriott properties and dorm rooms that are empty.
NYC is the perfect Petri dish for a virus that spreads quickly among people in close quarters.
The administration's previous actions with regard to funding of the CDC and other programs to counteract this type of situation has to come into play politically. Not to mention, the intelligence community registered this as one of the primary threats to national security before the coronavirus was even known and there was still very little done to prepare.
His language through the last 3 months is also ridiculous. I don't know why they felt the need to essentially overpromise on how things would go, and so the blowback you see now is exactly the nature of most promises that aren't kept. Just bizarre that he didn't exercise some sort of caution with regard to setting the expectations for everyone.
His language through the last 3 months is also ridiculous. I don't know why they felt the need to essentially overpromise on how things would go, and so the blowback you see now is exactly the nature of most promises that aren't kept. Just bizarre that he didn't exercise some sort of caution with regard to setting the expectations for everyone.
Agree. At the onset, the elderly should have had this hammered into them to stay the F home. Don’t go to routine doc appointments, don’t be running around town doing errands. Just hang at home. And dense cities also needed to act much quicker. Cities with widely used public transportation were going to get smoked by this. A crowded subway in NYC is like the best place possible for this to spread. New York has nearly HALF the cases of the entire country and logic would dictate its almost all in NYC and the surrounding suburbs because for over a week these people were all passing it amongst themselves.
I fit in the "elderly" category - dammit - and I've left my house twice in the last ten days. Once to CVS/Publix
and last night to pick up take away food. The straight home.
I'm wondering about NYC folks who are still filling up Subway cars,busses, and trains. Did they feel pressure to still show up at work? No cars, so if they wanted to get groceries, etc. they had no choice but to use public transport?
Those of us who live elsewhere cannot fathom what life is like up there. (thankfully) But I fully support our Governor's edict that evacuees from that area should self quarantine. I doubt many will, though, even though they can't hit the beach and most stuff is closed. They'll stay inside and eat too much like the rest of us.
But we are saving the planet by stacking ourselves like cord-wood into big city dwellings and allowing public transportation to herd us around like sheep. The only distinction between us and sheep is we are able to arm ourselves. That is if you don't live in big city dwellings with mass public transportation in gun free zones. At that point you are the sheep and sheep get slaughtered.
I understand your point, but the unique infrastructure that is NYC is well known. Seattle was a small and powerful example of how this virus really spreads. From the get go, Seattle (and the beginning of New Rochelle) showed that the virus spreads fastest with close contact between the affected and the unaffected...and (this is very important) in a small closed environment (like a nursing home). I worked in Manhattan for 4 years...it is the perfect setting for spreading this virus. It only takes a few affected people to get to NYC and set off a time bomb. Three crowded and disorganized airports, subways, taxis, buses, small elevators, small grocery stores and bars with low ceilings... you can literally be in five different very tight enclosures each day. To be blunt, 6 feet between two people in most Florida counties is not the same 6 feet in Manhattan. Like I said previously, too many politicians and media types made the fatal (and I mean fatal) error of stating that we were all equally likely to get the disease. We are too strict in most of the country, and not nearly strict enough where it counts.
I'm not going to get into the politics. That will sort itself out over time. Leaders of NYC will have to explain their actions in January and February. And now, so will New Orleans.
I caught a few minutes at the end of the Governor's news conference this afternoon...did I hear him say there could be checkpoints at the state lines at the interstates keeping some people out?
Except of course, that's because in the testimony he didn't make a reversal at all. He said that if the UK continues to follow the health interventions they currently have in place then fewer people would die (which is what the report always said). He still says "Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study." It's still just as deadly as they thought before, but when you do things to reduce exposure, then you reduce the number of deaths. As long as you continue to do them. Not everyone is following the same procedures as the UK, so this change isn't universally applicable.
Source: His Twitter (it's a 4-tweet thread, so I didn't just link it)
This is like if someone originally said "In this particular 5-seat car, if no one wears seatbelts, we expect 3-5 people to die if there is a 90-mph accident." and then after they put on seat belts, saying "now that they are wearing seatbelts, we only expect 0-1 people to die. As long as they don't take their seat belts off." Then you coming in here and saying that they reversed their estimate and 90-mph accidents aren't as dangerous as they previously stated.
Florida National Guard is now on duty at Jacksonville Airport to intercept and screen arriving NYC passengers. This could get interesting. 
Fantastic. City of Tampa closing all city parks. I’ve been out in the park every day for the last 10 days. No large groups. A few groups of 3-4 exercising together out in the open air. But hey, this is what politicians do, they must “do something” whether or not it makes any sense. Let’s keep everyone inside.
I am okay with this. NYC should shit down the airport. No one in or out for 2 weeks. Rather than the whole damn country shut down, shutdown one (or two) states.Florida National Guard is now on duty at Jacksonville Airport to intercept and screen arriving NYC passengers. This could get interesting.
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