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Hurricane Irma

Question about storm surge. If all of these Carribean Islands and the Keys are at sea level, wouldn't an 8' storm surge put them 8' under water?
 
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None of those are 10am models?

The three most trusted models have the following:

GFS (6am): Trended slightly west, keeping a majority of the eye offshore
UKM (2am): West coast of florida landfall, right over Key West
Euro (2am): Held serve from yesterday's run, with the eye over Miami (see below for the reliability of this model)

I would only trust NHC model, because after all, nobody here (except Chimp) is a meteorologist.


What the crap model chart am I looking at then??

Can you link me to what you're using? Thanks!
 
Is there a chance that the island tipped over in all that wind, it's not very wide
Also, the wind could have just pushed it over the edge.

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Question about storm surge. If all of these Carribean Islands and the Keys are at sea level, wouldn't an 8' storm surge put them 8' under water?

If they were "at sea level" they wouldn't be an island. They have to be a few feet above to be an island. An 8' storm surge can completely inundate some of the smaller ones. You see that in the videos where cars are floating down the street.
 
Good thinking! ...BUT my son-in-law is a hotel manager, and his Comfort Suites will charge you if you cancel within 7 days of your reservation.

Must be his location, or if you booked directly through them. I have a few booked with Comfort that had free cancellations until 3 days after booking.
 
Georgia just issued mandatory evacuation for all coastal counties effective 8am Saturday.
 
Question about storm surge. If all of these Carribean Islands and the Keys are at sea level, wouldn't an 8' storm surge put them 8' under water?
This is why most of the keys have structures built on stilts. My brother's place, when he lived there in the 90's, was 100 percent concrete. Concrete stilts, floor, walls, even the roof. His house was no different than the rest of his neighborhood. The neighbors all get together down there, tie boats off in the middle of the canals with plenty of slack to handle the surge, move vehicles to the highest ground possible, put up their shutters and hunker down.

The keys will likely be back in business day after the hurricane passes, maybe two days, with the exception of power. They might be better off now that they have a power plant in the southern keys but it's doubtful.
 
Dang. Just ran out of Miami to get home (got in around 3 this am) and it looks like we will be impacted in Tally.
 
Do all models agree that the low front weakens that much or is it just the Euro?
 
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