Potential flaws in Myocarditis researched cancellations based on
- Thread starter tsmith1790
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The Washington Post Really? Well it has to be true .. I will take by best guess over the Washington Post any day! LOL
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In the modern day context, there aren't any similar pandemics that are good comparisons to those in the USA... i.e. highly contagious, not contained, relative high death toll. Deaths from wars, on the other hand, while not ideal, are among the few accessible historical references many can glean context from while also getting by attention so people will take it seriously.
Even if this ironic, abhorrent comparison is flawed, if it saves lives because it gets attention and changes behavior, I'm all for it.
WW1 which is one of the examples that was used happened at the same time as the Spanish Flu. Since then there’s been H1N1 & the Hong Kong flu to only name a few.
Nice try though.
Right. I wouldn't say WW1 is modern day, but it is more well known than the Spanish flu.
H1N1 is estimated to have killed ~13k people, which isn't very comparable to COVID unless you're saying it's 15 times less deadly, but at least it's modern day.
Hong Kong flu, honestly, I'm not too familiar with it. Was it comparable to coronavirus? Maybe, but even if it was, my point is referencing it isn't likely to resonate and get people to take notice as well as more accessible and widely known scale of deaths from wars.
So you basically just proved what I said is correct. Btw, FACTS don’t change, but opinions do.
Would be better to compare deaths from the Spanish flu.
And Hong Kong flu killed about 100k Americans.
How many of those deaths are ACTUALLY reported correctly? People dying of gunshot wounds, motorcycle accidents, cancer, and other causes have been listed as covid deaths. States are admitting to including flu and pneumonia deaths. Not saying covid isn’t a thing, just saying the numbers and opinions aren’t all accurate.
I agree. It looks like covid will be at least twice as bad as the Hong Kong flu, if we're lucky. Hopefully it doesn't reach the epic proportions of the Spanish Flu, which was estimated to kill 675K Americans. Considering the US population wasn't near 330 million a hundred years ago, that must've been devastating.
Great to hear you both are doing well....Hopefully the antibodies keep it away from you all for a very long time, if not indefinitely. Have you all had antibody tests?
How is that BS? I'm trying to bring some perspective to the table. There's a section of our country that thinks people are over reacting when more people have died from this thing than those that died in multiple major war conflicts combined. And our death count is still climbing. People should be concerned for their safety. There are just a group of people that would rather complain about dealing with the restrictions than help make things safer.
Wrong. As of May in NYC alone there were 600 deaths in the 18-44 age range.
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What was the is population during the Hong Kong flu and how did the country react then?
Don't know. I'm sure the info is available.
Hopefully, we can learn from any mistakes that were made and react more wisely this time, and even more wisely the next time this happens.
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku
Not sure this helps to deliver exactly what some are asking for, but here is a table from CDC on death rates. What I did find interesting is the # of pneumonia deaths compared to Covid deaths captured from Feb 2020 - Aug 2020....pretty close and pneumonia is even higher for most states. Again if I am misreading disregard my statement but still felt like the statistics could help all with whichever side they are on, since they deal in numbers presented by CDC.
Not sure this helps to deliver exactly what some are asking for, but here is a table from CDC on death rates. What I did find interesting is the # of pneumonia deaths compared to Covid deaths captured from Feb 2020 - Aug 2020....pretty close and pneumonia is even higher for most states. Again if I am misreading disregard my statement but still felt like the statistics could help all with whichever side they are on, since they deal in numbers presented by CDC.
I am only speaking for myself here, but I have zero confidence in our decision makers, science community, experts, etc.,to tell us the truth, give us accurate information, etc.
And when a REAL nasty virus spreads (nasty = potential to kill millions), us having no faith in the decision makers will be bad news for everyone.
(kind of like how the weather Channel hypes each named storm as catastrophic, I don't listen to them anymore.)
& what I’m saying is that there’s a section of our country that thinks people are over reacting because they keep seeing those people compare this pandemic to things like WW1, etc etc.
You are creating the opposite reaction by conflating the two.
200mm & 100k deaths, mostly older +65 people. According to the CDC.
Now @ 330mm and will prob be around 175k deaths, mostly people over +65.
Why is today different in the reaction of the public?
Because we're smarter, I hope? Had we not been, we'd probably be @ 250K+ dead already.
We're already @ 171K deaths. You think only 4K more will die of this? Quite optimistic.
I'm more pessimistic, but then again, I'm a biomedical scientist in academia, so I realize you don't trust what I think.
Sadly, I bet you're right. A good chunk of the population think me & my 'kind' have some kind of agenda, and don't believe much of what we say. So, when the big one hits, no one will probably listen.
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Well according to research reviewed in 2018, the Hong Kong flu was one was the mildest pandemic in the 20th century.
My own two cents are it was less severe 34k estimated deaths and information travelled much slower, so coordinated efforts that would have been needed to quash it like other countries are doing with COVID weren't needed.
"Hong Kong flu: A pandemic of influenza A (H3N2) in 1968-69. This virus was first detected in Hong Kong in early 1968 and spread to the United States later that year. where it caused about 34,000 deaths, making it the mildest pandemic in the 20th century. Also known as Hong Kong influenza.
There could be several reasons why fewer people in the US died due to this virus. First, the Hong Kong flu virus was similar in some ways to the Asian flu virus that circulated between 1957 and 1968. Earlier infections by the Asian flu virus might have provided some immunity against the Hong Kong flu virus that may have helped to reduce the severity of illness during the Hong Kong pandemic.
Second, instead of peaking in September or October, like pandemic influenza had in the previous two pandemics, this pandemic did not gain momentum until near the school holidays in December. Since children were at home and did not infect one another at school, the rate of influenza illness among schoolchildren and their families declined.
Third, improved medical care and antibiotics that are more effective for secondary bacterial infections were available for those who became ill."
I think a few things, and I stayed @ a holiday Inn express. I don't know squat!
1) if a few governors had acted differently, WAY LESS deaths would have occurred, especially nursing home deaths.
2) very special population is seriously negatively impacted by this. For everyone else, honestly, it seems like a no big deal flu like symptoms that people recover from and move on.
3) my numbers were wrong, you're right re 171k deaths total....maybe 200k will pass away from this this year, unless the virus changes and learns how to kill folks under 50 that are healthy. Better treatment & real quarantine and isolation for the at risk, letting the rest of us able to get around like normal.
4) people are not smarter.......see social media for proof.
1) if a few governors had acted differently, WAY LESS deaths would have occurred, especially nursing home deaths.
2) very special population is seriously negatively impacted by this. For everyone else, honestly, it seems like a no big deal flu like symptoms that people recover from and move on.
3) my numbers were wrong, you're right re 171k deaths total....maybe 200k will pass away from this this year, unless the virus changes and learns how to kill folks under 50 that are healthy. Better treatment & real quarantine and isolation for the at risk, letting the rest of us able to get around like normal.
4) people are not smarter.......see social media for proof.
The 34k deaths were the first result I saw on my google search too then I went to the CDC for the 100k deaths. All due respect to you, but I will trust them in this case. Please do not tak that personally.
Re #1, agree.
Re #2, agree.
Re #3, it's impossible to isolate/quarantine the most vulnerable. Nursing home residents & the elderly in general need younger people to care for them. So, unless we can quash covid in the younger (who will not die of it), we cannot keep it from spreading to the older (who may die of it). If we get out of this mess with only 200K dead Americans, I'll consider this a success.
Re #4, agree. We're not smarter, but we can do smarter things. I doubt human IQ has changed much since caveman days, but we do some things much smarter than we did back then. Whether shutdowns, quarantines, and the like qualify as smarter or dumber is a matter of opinion, obviously.
So, how do we handle #3 to minimize deaths and at the same time minimize impacts (job losses, psychological impacts this is having, etc) to others? Negating all deaths just isn't possible without continued, major impacts on the vast majority of the population.
And a death is tragic, yes. Please don't misinterpret my position. And there are, every day, avoidable deaths. (Like my mom's last year.... Due to doctor error.) so, at some point, we have to be able to do all we can to protect and move on.
Could we not focus heavy and regular testing with people who regularly interact with at risk populations? I just have a hard time believing how we've handled things thus far has had the most, overall, positive results...when you factor in all aspects.
And a death is tragic, yes. Please don't misinterpret my position. And there are, every day, avoidable deaths. (Like my mom's last year.... Due to doctor error.) so, at some point, we have to be able to do all we can to protect and move on.
Could we not focus heavy and regular testing with people who regularly interact with at risk populations? I just have a hard time believing how we've handled things thus far has had the most, overall, positive results...when you factor in all aspects.
No one knows how to handle #3. That's why everyone's pissed at each other!
IMO, in an ideal world, we would've done the following:
1. People who work at nursing homes and the like (these are by & large lousy jobs, most pay poorly and are very understaffed) would've been told, we're quintupling your salary if you're willing to live & work in our nursing home 'bubble.' Many workers would decline, b/c they have kids, etc., and wouldn't be willing to live under such harsh conditions. But, given the high pay, some would accept. And, some other RNs, LPNs, MAs, etc. would've signed up to do it. These workers would've been tested twice daily, pre & post shift. The rapid, ~2 hr. turnaround testing would've been used.
2. Instead of trillion dollar bail outs, the gov't would've paid for this quintupling of salaries for the true essential workers, as well as for all of this covid testing. Maybe we would've been taxed more, but our lives would've stayed normal, making it worth it.
3. The rest of the world would've gone on as normal, by & large.
I don't know if my plan would've worked. But in retrospect, I think that's what we should've done.
Of course, it's easy for me to say this now. It's become clear that covid is primarily a threat to a very restricted population. In the beginning, that wasn't obvious. To me, it started to become clear as northern Italy & NYC were falling apart in mid-to-late March.
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Heck, a double of the salary would have done the trick.
Looking back, I'd give everyone.... And I mean everyone... A free pass for harsh responses for the first 2 weeks. My start date is ACCT cancelation day (sobs). Two weeks from then... We should have been better.
From that day on, all decision makers, politicians, scientists, beauraucrats, MEDIA, should have done better. We all deserve and should demand better.
Looking back, I'd give everyone.... And I mean everyone... A free pass for harsh responses for the first 2 weeks. My start date is ACCT cancelation day (sobs). Two weeks from then... We should have been better.
From that day on, all decision makers, politicians, scientists, beauraucrats, MEDIA, should have done better. We all deserve and should demand better.
I don't know about you, but if I was an LPN working in a nursing home for 30K/year, it'd take more than 60K for me to move in to the nursing home, and agree to see no family or friends for several months. No life outside a nursing home at all, you work there, you live there, you see no one you care about. It'd take a fortune for me to do that.
Regarding the rest, both scientists & politicians have been in very difficult positions. It's easy to criticize them, but they are both in near no-win situations. Regarding the media, I honestly don't understand why everyone is so infuriated by them. The days of journalistic credibility are long past. Every news station & every journalist is trying to get as many views/clicks as they can, to make as much $ as they can. They don't care if what they say or write is accurate, has an agenda, or anything else. They're trying to make profit, plain and simple.
I'm good with that. The 34k deaths referenced was actually put out by the CDC. https://phil.cdc.gov/Details.aspx?pid=15874
What is the prerequisite of a fact? It must be proven true. Therefore FACTS don’t change. The issue is that opinion and theory has been released under the assumption they were facts....
COVID-19 is not the bubonic plague. But neither is it just another flu-like virus. It’s not something to be cavalier about. It’s not just about you personally not being afraid of it making you seriously ill. It’s also the more at-risk people that you could unknowingly transmit it to.
It’s a shame that political agendas have played into containment strategies. Both sides have tried to exploit it. It has not been a good look for our leadership at the various levels of government.
It’s a shame that political agendas have played into containment strategies. Both sides have tried to exploit it. It has not been a good look for our leadership at the various levels of government.
The good news is we will get clarity in November. Covid will either get better much more quickly than expected (if Basement Guy wins), or it will be grounds for impeachment (if Orange Man wins). So one way or the other, we will know.
